National Football League

Is It Time To Fade New England?

Updated Jun. 29, 2020 7:23 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre

The sports betting world was quick to react to Sunday's surprise signing of Cam Newton by the New England Patriots.

Quarterbacks move markets, after all — even ones like Newton, who hasn’t thrown a TD pass since December 2, 2018. 

Adding Newton was enough to drive the Patriots' Super Bowl odds down from +2500 to +1600 at FOX Bet, and Newton’s MVP futures went from +6500 to +3500.

A former MVP signing a minimum contract to join forces with Bill Belichick? Classic Patriots. Classic Bill Belichick.

But this one’s different. In the last four games he’s played — two in 2018, and two in 2019 — Newton has an underwhelming zero TDs and three interceptions.

He's had two shoulder surgeries and a foot injury. And he was booed off the field in his last home game.

So is this really a guy you should be betting on in 2020?

I'm not — and here's why.

1. Newton's health remains an open question

How can you bet on someone if you don’t know if he's truly healthy?

Newton had surgery on his throwing shoulder in March of 2017, and then again in January of 2019. In between, he was fairly brilliant to start 2018, as Carolina went 6-2 and Newton opened with 15 TDs and just four interceptions.

He was an MVP candidate going into a TNF showdown in Pittsburgh, but Newton was pulverized that night. He was sacked five times in a 52-21 loss, including a shot to his throwing shoulder by TJ Watt that shook Newton up.

The Panthers didn’t win another game under Newton that season. His play deteriorated badly, and we haven't seen him healthy since, as he suffered a Lisfranc injury in 2019.

Sure, if Newton is healthy, then the Patriots could be in business. But as of right now, is there really any reason to wager that Superman is 100 percent?

2. What's up with the Patriots' offensive line?

Let’s say Newton wins the starting job, beating out Jarrett Stidham. (That’s far from a given. Stidham has a year headstart on Josh McDaniels’ offense.)

Last year, Tom Brady was sacked 27 times behind a patchwork offensive line, up from 21 the year prior when the Patriots won the Super Bowl. He also led the NFL in throw-aways.

And there’s even more uncertainty up front this year in New England. Can 2018 first-round pick Isaiah Wynn stay healthy, having played just eight games in two seasons?

Meanwhile, David Andrews is expected to be their starting center after missing last year with a pulmonary embolism. Will he be able to bounce back fully?

Those are big questions for the Patriots. Putting a less-than-100 percent Newton behind a piecemeal offensive line is a recipe for disaster.

3. Will Newton have the help he needs on offense?

Tom Brady complained repeatedly last year about the lack of weapons on the Patriots, and New England didn't do much to address that need this offseason.

Future Hall of Fame Julian Edelman turned 34. Running back Sony Michel went from 4.5 yards per carry as a rookie to a dismal 3.7 last year. His longest carry was just 26 yards.

The receiving corps in general is nothing to write home about, with the Patriots' wide receivers and tight ends projected to be the 27th-best group in the NFL, per Football Outsiders.

When you look at the Patriots' roster, it's hard to find offensive players who will help lift Newton. Instead, the former Panthers QB is going to have to try to make others around him better — and that's a lot of pressure.

I get the hype and excitement for what Newton could turn into with Belichick if he's healthy, playing behind a great offensive line with a smart offensive coordinator, and if the skill position players deliver.

But the Patriots' Super Bowl odds are moving on emotion.

Here's the reality: Newton is 31. It wouldn’t shock me if Stidham won the starting job and Newton came on in October to try and save the day. But I’m not touching the season win total of 9.5, and I certainly am not betting on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

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