National Football League

Front Office Insider: DeMarco Murray's next deal may prove era of pricey RBs is over

Published Oct. 15, 2014 11:38 a.m. ET

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Ross Jones

It is possible Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray will rewrite history at the running back position this season -- but that doesn't mean he'll be compensated accordingly.

Through six games, Murray is on pace to be within striking distance of the single-season rushing record, but he's likely going to run into a free-agent market that's as dried up as ever for running backs.

Playing in the final year of his rookie deal, Murray has become one of only two running backs ever to run for 100-or-more yards in the first six games of the season.

Despite receiving a four-year offer valued at more than what any other running back received in 2014 free agency earlier this month, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, Murray's impending deal continues to loom.

That's because the highest-grossing free-agent deal for a running back this past offseason was given to Rashad Jennings in New York. Jennings' four-year deal worth $10 million includes just $2.98 million in guaranteed money -- well below the league average for a starter. Running back Ben Tate received the highest average-per-year deal in Cleveland at two years, $6.2 million.

Tate and Jennings aren't considered to be elite, bell-cow running backs, but other variables point to a growing dip in running back compensation.

The facts that running backs have the smallest career-earning windows and the steepest decline in production when they start to age doesn't bode well for players seeking lucrative second deals.

"It's an unvalued position," one NFL player agent texted FOXSports.com. "If [Murray] gets $20 million for four years, I'm impressed." Another contract negotiator told FOXSports.com that they project Murray could be in the $4 million-a-year neighborhood.

Of the 50 running backs that have the most touches (carries and receptions) in 2014, 29 are on their rookie deal. More than ever, teams are willing to give younger -- and cheaper -- players at the position bigger roles earlier in their careers.

Murray, whose league-leading 180 touches average 5.2 yards, commands only $82,500 in base salary per week. Aside from Ravens running back Justin Forsett, who is making nearly half that amount (more on that later), Murray is the league's biggest bargain at the position.

Decision makers are often faced to choose what's riskier for their organization: gambling on a veteran player to remain healthy while sustaining success or taking a chance on an unproven option in the draft.

Next year's rookie running back class -- likely headlined by Georgia underclassman Todd Gurley -- could have a player selected in the first round for the first time since 2012. Gurley, Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah, Indiana's Tevin Coleman and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon project to be formidable next-level prospects, according to several talent evaluators around the league.

One factor, though, that helps veteran running backs is they are typically more well-rounded. Because of the popularity of spread offenses at the collegiate level, some rookies take time adapting to every aspect of the position at the pro level. Pass protection and catching the ball out of the backfield are almost as important as running the ball between the tackles.

To make the situation even more competitive, veteran running backs such as Adrian Peterson, C.J. Spiller and Frank Gore all could be looking for work at the beginning of the next league year.

But when it comes down to it, teams are more often making the tough decisions a year sooner rather than later.

And for players at the running back position, one that ripens so quickly, it's a trend that even history can't stop.

SCOUTING SERVICE: WHAT INSIDERS ARE TALKING ABOUT

A more 'patient' Derek Carr?

Rookie quarterbacks don't enter team facilities as finished products. It takes time and some seasoning to be a productive passer in this league. One talent evaluator, though, believes Oakland rookie signal-caller Derek Carr has taken the next step in his development.

"He's had a promising start," a senior personnel exec told FOXSports.com. "He has looked pretty good on a team that's struggling. It seems that he has cleaned up some weaknesses that he had going through the process. When you first evaluated him you saw the arm strength and mobility, but he had happy feet. Since then, he's been a lot more patient."

Carr, who is coming off a four-touchdown performance against the San Diego Chargers, has had some help from emerging weapons in the offense. A bevy of drops, though, has sabotaged his completion percentage.

Capping last week's outing with a game-sealing interception, Carr has a gunslinger mentality that has been applauded by his teammates. But it's only a matter of time until all the yards he's throwing for turn into points and those points turn into wins.

New England's emerging deep threat?

Wide receiver Brian Tyms' 43-yard touchdown reception against the Buffalo Bills last week was no accident. Tyms, who was suspended the first four games because of a PED violation, had a spectacular preseason highlighted by some dazzling touchdown catches.

"He's a legit deep threat," one former NFL scout told FOXSports.com. "It's something you saw in preseason. Only a matter of time before they use him in their offense more."

At 6-foot-3, 204 pounds, Tyms has the size, speed and skillset to eventually challenge former 2013 second-round pick Aaron Dobson for a bigger role in the offense. While the Patriots denied any truth to the report that Dobson "mouthed off" to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, it certainly didn't help Dobson's public image.

Still leery of this offensive lineman?

A big reason for Murray's success this season has been the play of his offensive line. While it has been widely noted how well the three first-round picks (Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin) have played, one talent evaluator believes left guard Ronald Leary has exceeded a lot of expectations.

"He plays with great pad level and finishes defenders off," an AFC scout texted FOXSports.com when asked about the topic. "Leary doesn't get a lot of pub, but he deserves it."

Leary, who went undrafted in 2012 out of Memphis, has elevated his game after getting invaluable experience playing in all 16 games from a season ago.

While the unit could take a hit with right tackle Doug Free out for the next three-to-four weeks because of a fracture in his foot, there are those around the league that are confident in Jeremy Parnell.

FOUR DOWNS

Pondering Philly's future in the backfield

The MCL sprain to Philadelphia Eagles running back Darren Sproles won't keep him out more than a week or two after the team returns from its bye, Chip Kelly said this week. It will, however, give running back LeSean McCoy more of an opportunity to shine as a feature back.

McCoy, who has three years remaining with cap numbers of $11.95 million in '15, $8.85 million in '16 and $7.85 million in '17, is only guaranteed $1 million of that after this season. With a massive number against the cap next season, a restructure is nearly certain. The next few weeks of work for McCoy could be a good indicator for his future in Philly.

Despite rushing 22 times for 149 yards last week against the New York Giants, McCoy had been off to a slow start, averaging just 2.9 yards a carry. For a team that isn't afraid to make brash football decisions, one can't rule out Philly moving on from a then-27-year-old running back if he isn't willing to reduce his cap number.

More hope on the horizon in the desert

The defensive losses of Daryl Washington, Darnell Dockett and John Abraham haven't derailed the Cardinals' fast start. Even quarterback Carson Palmer's absence from the team didn't slow them down either.

One talent evaluator believes the team avoided disaster when defensive end Calais Campbell sustained a sprain opposed to a tear in the knee two weeks ago.

"He's really an excellent player and causes a lot of problems," a senior personnel exec told FOXSports.com. "He has unique athleticism. They've done a remarkable job replacing good players."

Campbell, who FOX Sports 1's NFL insider Alex Marvez reported this week is jogging, probably won't be ready on Sunday against the Oakland Raiders, but could return in Week 8 against the Eagles.

Baltimore's steal of the offseason?

A lot of times being successful in the league comes down to two very important factors: opportunity and scheme.

For Ravens running back Justin Forsett, his short time in Baltimore has gotten off to a strong start. Splitting carries with running backs Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro, Forsett has made the most of his opportunities, averaging 6.4 yards a carry on the ground and leading the team in yards (408).

A source close to Forsett told FOXSports.com said that a deciding factor for playing in Baltimore this past offseason came down to his familiarity with offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak from his days in Houston.

Playing on a one-year deal worth $730k, Forsett has been the league's best offseason bargain thus far.

Think the Jaguars are regretting the decision of letting him walk? Though Forsett has 34 fewer carries than Jacksonville's four running backs combined, he has 122 yards more than all of them.

Intriguing Stanford WR Ty Montgomery comparison

"He has a unique build," a team personnel rep told FOXSports.com. "Really thick and strong. He can return kickoffs and punts. I don't anticipate him being knocked off the ball. Reminds me a lot of [Chicago Bears wide receiver] Josh Morgan."

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