Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl If...

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:46 p.m. ET

Fansided, John Follett/FanSided via Blogging Dirty

Jan 22, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) reacts after a touchdown during the fourth quarter in the 2017 NFC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

How do the Atlanta Falcons win the Super Bowl? It’s a popular question for Falcons’ beat writers and one that I’m finally comfortable answering.

Win or lose, I’ll forever be grateful for this Atlanta Falcons season. Their hard work in getting to Super Bowl 51 has provided the Blogging Dirty writing team new and exciting opportunities each day. I’ve done three radio interviews over the past week and there’s at least two more to go.

The one question I’ve been asked by every host: “The Falcons win the Super Bowl if…?”

It’s about time I put the answer to writing. The answer would have come sooner, had I been comfortable in my knowledge of the Patriots’ season. Rather than rush to judgement or be a “homer”, I went back and studied both teams more in depth.

So here we go, the Atlanta Falcons will beat the New England Patriots if…

They Don’t Change Anything

The Atlanta Falcons have made it to Super Bowl 51 with a devastating offense and bend-don’t-break defense. After blowing out Seattle and Green Bay in consecutive weeks, it makes no sense to change up the way they do business. We all know the saying, “if ain’t broke…”

As I told Jeff Benedict on 92.9 “The Game” Saturday night, the Falcons don’t need to try and “out-wizard” Bill Belichick. The Patriots coach will have his typical plan to take away what the Falcons do well, but what’s to say it will work? The New York Giants have encountered Belichick’s schemes in the Super Bowl twice and won both times.

The Falcons may have to make some adjustments throughout the game, but reinventing the wheel in the last game of the season makes no sense.

Establish the early lead, score at will, attack the ball on defense, and let the Patriots’ sideline sweat changing things up.

Nov 13, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Christine Michael (32) is tackled by New England Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler (21) during the fourth quarter at Gillette Stadium. The Seattle Seahawks won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Study the Last Patriots’ Loss

The last Patriots’ loss back in Week 10, a 31-24 game against Seattle. The Seahawks opened up the playbook during that game, in which Russell Wilson threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns. Malcolm Butler wasn’t able to contain Doug Baldwin, who menaced the New England secondary for three touchdown catches.

Seattle went into Week 10 near the bottom of the NFL in plays per drive average. Against New England, seven of their nine drives lasted seven plays or more. Seven different players also caught passes from Wilson, to include leading receiver CJ Prosise and his seven grabs for 87 yards.

If that all doesn’t sound like Atlanta’s game plan this season than I don’t know what does.

But what doesn’t sound like the Falcons is Seattle’s red-zone success back in Week 10. The Seahawks failed to put up seven points in four of their seven trips to the red-zone. It ultimately didn’t matter because they still beat the Patriots, but kept a lot of pressure on their defense in the process.

The Atlanta Falcons have been great in the red-zone this season, scoring touchdowns on 63% of their chances. Isolate their last three regular season games and the playoffs and the Falcons are well-above 75%.

Are Prepared for Patriots’ Offensive Gameplan

The Pittsburgh Steelers were caught off guard by the Patriots’ offense going up-tempo in the AFC Championship. Truthfully, I was too as I had expected a slower, ground-and-pound battle. In hindsight it made sense though. Why wouldn’t the Patriots play up-tempo against a tired, old, and broken Steelers’ defense?

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We can expect that slower, more methodical approach from the Patriots’ offense in the Super Bowl. I don’t think New England has the personnel to stop Atlanta’s offense and Belichick knows it. The only way to stop the Falcons on offense is to keep them on the sideline. That said, expect New England to go run-heavy and attempt to eat up clock.

“Expect a lot of LaGarrette Blount” is something I’ve heard and read at least a half-dozen times. I’ll buy into it and I’m sure Dan Quinn does as well. The Falcons’ defense has been vulnerable to the run at times in 2016, but Blount they can handle. It’s worth noting Blount had a big night against Seattle in the aforementioned Week 10 match-up. At the rate the Falcons offense can score points, running the ball won’t help the Patriots, especially if they fall behind early.

Generate a Pass Rush

The Atlanta Falcons defending against the pass is as simple as getting to Tom Brady as much as possible. The Falcons’ defensive line did an outstanding job pressuring Aaron Rodgers on the outside edge of the pocket. They’ll need to do the same, but over the center against Tom Brady. This is where the power of Ra’Shede Hageman over the nose will be a difference-maker.

Brady “loves” being hit about as much as Rodgers does. In the NFC title game, Atlanta deployed some linebacker blitzes and sent Brian Poole off the edge enough to fluster Rodgers. Vic Beasley didn’t manage much contact on Rodgers, but he got close. Close enough that we can believe the Packers’ quarterback knew where Beasley was on every play. The Falcons need more of the same pressure on the quarterback in Super Bowl 51.

Call it intuition, but I love the prospect of veterans Dwight Freeney and Courtney Upshaw on Sunday. Both players have Super Bowl experience and play huge roles in keeping the team grounded on such a big stage. It may be one or both, but I’m calling for big plays from the Falcons’ defensive line veterans on Sunday.

Limit the Patriots on Pass Plays

Tom Brady used a lot of quick-release throws against Pittsburgh, but was enabled by the Steelers’ inability to generate points. We know the Atlanta Falcons can score points and if all goes well, Brady has no choice but to look deep. Deep routes are where Chris Hogan becomes the focus of Atlanta’s defense. I don’t expect the Falcons to shut down Hogan, but they can definitely limit his damage.

Chances are Hogan looks to get up the seams and create a coverage breakdown, something the Falcons have been susceptible to in the past. We haven’t seen as many breakdowns lately and unlike Pittsburgh, Atlanta knows Hogan is coming. That doesn’t mean Julian Edelman is forgotten either.

Edeleman is that 6-7 yard crossing route threat that can do a lot of damage if given the open field. Atlanta doesn’t have to rely on an older, slower James Harrison to cover Edelman. The Falcons also don’t tackle nearly as poor as Pittsburgh did in the AFC title game.

The one Patriot that would create a huge mismatch in Atlanta’s secondary is Rob Gronkowksi. Gronk obviously won’t suit up for Super Bowl 51, leaving Martellus Bennett the lone concern at tight end. Bennett is good, but won’t be the threat Jared Cook was during the NFC Championship Game. I am confident in Keanu Neal’s ability to run with Bennett and potentially put him out of the game with a blistering hit.