Atlanta Falcons

15 bold predictions for Super Bowl 51

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:55 p.m. ET

Fansided, John Buhler/Fansided

The Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots will meet in Houston for Super Bowl 51. Here are 15 bold predictions for how this title bout will play out.

We’re almost there. Super Bowl 51 is about to be upon us. Playing for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy are the AFC Champion New England Patriots and the NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons.

This is the ninth time that New England will be playing in a Super Bowl. Quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick will be in their seventh title bout as a tandem in New England. For Atlanta, this is the first time quarterback Matt Ryan has ever been in a Super Bowl.

In only his second year with the Falcons, head coach Dan Quinn has his team playing for it all. This is his third trip to the Super Bowl in four seasons. Remember that he was the defensive coordinator for the 2013-14 Seattle Seahawks, who won the NFC two and three years ago.

While the NFL Playoffs have largely underwhelmed, Super Bowl 51 has the potential to be one of best games in the event’s history. Here are 15 bold predictions for Super Bowl LI.

15. Julian Edelman and Julio Jones will combine for over 200 receiving yards

This one doesn’t come as much of a surprise. In all likelihood, we’re going to see a great game from the two best wide receivers playing in this game: Atlanta’s Julio Jones and New England’s Julian Edelman.

They are both starting quarterbacks’ favorite receiving targets. There will come a point in this game for both teams where they will be force-fed the ball to keep the chains moving. We’ll probably see a scoring drive for both teams where Edelman and Jones were largely responsible for its orchestration.

Together, expect Edelman and Jones to be dominant possession receivers on Sunday. They will have somewhere between 15 and 20 combined receptions. While the bulk of those receptions won’t go for touchdowns, we can expect that Edelman and Jones will combine for over 200 receiving yards on Super Bowl Sunday.

That means one of the guys will have over 100 yards through the air on Sunday. Though not necessarily both will hit that receiving threshold, expect both star receivers to be major factors in the narrative of Super Bowl LI.

Nov 13, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) is sacked by Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Connor Barwin (98) during the first half at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

14. Matt Ryan will get sacked at least three times

Getting after the quarterback will be imperative for both defensive strategies. Though he is the more mobile of the two, Ryan will be brought down for a loss at least three times. Will Brady get sacked on Sunday? Absolutely, but Ryan holds on to the ball a tad longer than Brady and three sacks will be the result.

That being said, seeing Ryan get sacked three times does not indicate that Atlanta will have a terrible day offensively. Frankly, it won’t indicate that the offensive line is having a bad day in pass protection in all honesty.

What it means is that Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will devise a game plan that will make Ryan hold on to the ball a bit long than he would like. He could send pressure up the middle to compromise the pocket with front-seven pieces like Alan Branch, Chris Long and Rob Ninkovich.

In short, Patricia will use a barrage of pressure to try to bait Ryan into making errant throws into closing windows. Rather than turn the ball over, Ryan will take a few of these sacks to retain possession. He’s incredibly durable as a passer, so he’ll be fine playing in a muddier pocket than normal this season.

Jan 22, 2017; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws during the 2017 AFC Championship Game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

13. There will be more than 700 passing yards in this game

This game is being hyped as one capable of rampant offensive explosion. While the points may not come as often as football fans would like, there will be a lot of yards in this game, possibly empty ones.

With that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Brady and Ryan throw for over 700 passing yards in this game. Brady and Ryan are two of the most accurate passers in recent NFL memory. They are almost guaranteed to sling the pigskin for over 250 yards every time they take the field.

Regardless of if this game is tight or not, one quarterback will approach 400 passing yards. A close game into the latter stages of the fourth quarter will force either team to abandon the run for the efficient passing game. Should a team fall behind early, abandoning the run seems obvious to help play catchup with a well-executed passing game.

Unlike with Edelman and Jones combining for over 200 receiving yards, both Brady and Ryan will need to hit their threshold (300 yards passing) for this feat to happen. With two MVP candidates at quarterback, we shouldn’t expect anything less than a clinic in the passing game on Sunday.

Dec 11, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) celebrates after throwing a 64-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams during a NFL football game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

12. Matt Ryan will complete over 70 percent of his passes

It’s a forgone conclusion that Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will leave Flowery Branch after the Super Bowl to become the next head coach of the San Francisco 49ers. He will be begin a massive rebuilding project in Santa Clara with first-time general manager John Lynch.

In the meantime, Shanahan will have his last foray in being strictly an offensive coordinator. He’s not going to fail in his final game before being an NFL head coach. So how is he going to do this? Devise a passing game plan that will showcase Ryan’s best trait: pinpoint accuracy.

Ryan has thrown one of the most catchable balls since coming into the league in 2008. He nearly completed 70 percent of his passes during the 2016 regular season. While New England is well-coached in the secondary, the Patriots are more reactive in coverage than aggressive.

Limiting yards after catch will be more important than leaving one’s feet for risky pass breakup opportunities. Ryan will have passing lanes to work with underneath. Look for him to complete over 70 percent of his passes on Super Bowl Sunday.

Jan 22, 2017; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates after a touchdown by running back LeGarrette Blount (not pictured) against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter in the 2017 AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

11. Tom Brady gets into the end zone on a one-yard quarterback sneak

This is certainly a prop bet on the books in Las Vegas. Give how proficient he is at this, go for it. We all know it will be coming, but the Falcons’ red zone defense will not be able to stop Brady’s patented one-yard quarterback sneak. He’ll find pay dirt on this goal line run.

No, Brady isn’t going to straight up tell the Falcons’ goal line defense that he’s going to take it up the middle behind center David Andrews. However, Atlanta won’t be able to stop him even if he does. His ability to get that yard on a quarterback sneak is uncanny.

What will allow Brady to rush for a one-yard touchdown will be a marvelous play design by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. He’ll split some wideouts on the outside to open up the crowded 6-2 box in the Falcons’ goal line package.

Having a shifty runner like Dion Lewis or a wrecking ball like LeGarrette Blount in the backfield will only confuse the Atlanta defense. McDaniels will disguise the quarterback sneak well with moving pieces. Brady will sell the idea that something else could be coming before running down that Falcons’ throat for six.

Aug 11, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper (81) in action against the Washington Redskins in the second quarter at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

10. The first guy to score a touchdown won’t be a fantasy darling

With two MVP-level quarterbacks and strong running games, we’ve assumed that there will be a ton of points to be had in Super Bowl 51. While that could be the case, would it be all that shocking if somebody got into the end zone first that you’ve never heard of?

It’s not going to be players like Edelman, Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, LeGarrette Blount, Martellus Bennett, or even Mohamed Sanu that scores the first touchdown. In all likelihood it will be some guy that would have gotten your fantasy team zero points this season because he was irrelevantly hanging out on waivers.

We’re looking at a third-string tight end, a fullback, or a team’s No. 6 wide receiver getting the first touchdown of Super Bowl 51. Diehards of the respective fanbases may have heard of the first guy to find pay dirt, but the rest of the country will ask the same rhetorical question, “Who???”

Don’t rule out the possibility that the first touchdown comes from either the defense or the special teams. A pick-six from a dime back or return touchdown from the special teams can be on the table. The stars will be out on Super Bowl Sunday, but some dude you’ve never heard gets his team on the board first.

Dec 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount (29) rushes for a touchdown in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

9. Both teams will lead by 10 points at different parts of the game

A 10-point lead is not a safe one in the NFL, but it is significant. In Super Bowl 51, both the Falcons and the Patriots will lead their opponent by 10 points during the game.

For this to happen, the first team that scores will need to eventually take a 10-0 lead early in the game, something in that range. The team that is down by two scores will use that deficit to spark at 20-21-point swing in the middle of the game to then take the 10-point lead.

From there, it’s going to be a game decided by who takes advantage on their final possessions. It doesn’t project to be a blowout like many are envisioning. For that to happen, somebody will need to grab a three-possession lead early in the game.

Since both offenses are so explosive and both defenses bend but don’t break, nobody is going to seize that 17-point lead to hopefully win in a rout. That being said, both clubs will have 10-point leads at two different parts of the game.

Nov 27, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant (middle) jogs off of the field after a pregame huddle before the Falcons game against the Arizona Cardinals at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 38-19. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

8. A star player gets injured in the second quarter

In the biggest game of the year, people are going to want to see the Falcons and the Patriots as close to full strength as possible. Yes, the Falcons are without cornerback Desmond Trufant and the Patriots are without tight end Rob Gronkowski. That stinks, but one of these teams will end up losing a key player for the game in the second quarter.

Nobody wants this to happen to anybody, but football is a game of injuries. It’s all about the next man up. No, it’s going to be Brady or Ryan that gets carted off the field in devastating fashion, but somebody of note will leave the NRG turf in tears.

Millions of viewers will know this guy is hurt immediately. It’ll be a really sobering moment during what should be an exciting Super Bowl. The sideline that would technically benefit from this injury won’t be happy about it because that team wants to beat its opponent at its best and one of its 10 best players has gone down.

The good news is that it will be a rallying point for the depleted. Whomever comes in as the next man up will make a play that will help galvanize his team in this potential all-timer we might have on our hands.

Jan 22, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons defensive end Dwight Freeney (93) looks on during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers in the 2017 NFC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

7. Dwight Freeney shines in his final NFL game

Defensive end Dwight Freeney is in his first season with the Falcons, but this might also be his last. Freeney is 36 years old and well on his way to Canton as a lock to be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. There is a great chance that Super Bowl LI will be the final game of Freeney’s illustrious pro football career.

Freeney already won a Super Bowl with the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. His patented spin move has helped him garner 122.5 quarterback sacks, seven Pro Bowl nods, and three first team All-Pro designations. While Brady is the most accomplished player in Super Bowl 51, Freeney is clearly No. 2.

The Patriots offensive line will key in on second-year pass rusher Vic Beasley of the Falcons. However, it will be Freeney who headlines the Falcons pass rush on Sunday evening. He’ll get into the Patriots backfield and finish with 1.5 quarterback sacks.

Freeney has a ton of experience against Brady from his days of starring in Indianapolis. Given that he has had an extra week to get ready for this game physically, look for Freeney to have one last outstanding game as a professional football player before retiring this offseason.

Dec 12, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots free safety Devin McCourty (32) intercepts a pass intended for Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Mike Wallace (17) during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

6. The winner of the turnover margin won’t win the game

In New England, it’s about doing your job. In Atlanta, it’s about the ball. These are the mantras that Belichick and Quinn rally their respective teams behind. In short, it’s about on-field accountability.

While both teams prioritize winning the turnover margin, that may not be the case in Super Bowl 51. Despite being two of the better teams in that department, Atlanta and New England will turn the ball over. Brady and Ryan will both make a big mistake with the football in this game.

That being said, there will only be three turnovers in this game. The team that wins the Super Bowl will actually end up losing the turnover battle, 2-1. The turnover that gives one team a leg up in that department won’t be able to capitalize on it.

Atlanta and New England will be able to get points off the one turnover by Brady and Ryan. In short, they will cancel each other out. We’re going to see punts in this game and a lot of empty yards. There will be three turnovers, but that’s not going to be a major headline in this story of Super Bowl LI.

Oct 23, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons kicker Matt Bryant (3) and punter Matt Bosher (5) react after a missed field goal on the last play of the fourth quarter against the San Diego Chargers during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Chargers defeated the Falcons 33-30 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

5. This game will be remembered for a special teams gaffe

When football historians look back on this game many years from now, they will look to one play on special teams as the signature moment of the game. It’s not going to be a 50+ yard game-winning field goal or a punt return for a touchdown. We’re looking at potentially one of the all-time special teams gaffes in NFL history.

There will be a play on-par with Garo Yepremian’s pass attempt against the Washington Redskins or John Kasay missing the entire field on the kickoff against the Patriots. While this special teams blunder will end up costing the losing team Super Bowl LI, that isn’t certainly the case. Keep in mind that the 1972 Miami Dolphins still finished undefeated despite Garo’s Gaffe.

It will be a momentum shifting play to either cost the team the game or let the eventual loser make a competitive game of it. This gaffe could be a muffed punt, a botched snap, a lousy fake punt attempt, etc.

Super Bowl 51 will have a great champion at culmination. It will also give us another special teamer’s name will not forget: Yepremian, Kasay, Scott Norwood. People in Atlanta or Boston are going to be really mad about a special teams player on Monday. That’s for sure.

Jan 22, 2017; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots place kicker Stephen Gostkowski (3) kicks a field goal against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2017 AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

4. This game will be decided by a field goal

The point spread for Super Bowl 51 has the Patriots laying three points at a neutral site to the Falcons. That spread feels about right, with New England getting the nod due to significantly more Super Bowl experience over Atlanta.

However, there are people that think this game could end up being a one-sided affair, with either Atlanta or New England pulling away early. Well, let’s hope not, as the 2016 NFL Playoffs have only given us one close game: Green Bay at Dallas in the NFC Divisional Round.

Fortunately for football fans, Super Bowl LI will be an all-timer. This game will be decided by a field goal. That’s not necessarily indicative that either Matt Bryant or Stephen Gostkowski will win the game on a made field goal attempt, but the margin of victory will only be three.

That means either Atlanta will win and cover or New England will win and the point spread will be a push. All six of the previous Brady/Belichick Patriots Super Bowls have been decided by one score or less. Why would Super Bowl LI be any different? This one is going down to the wire.

Jan 22, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) runs the ball against the Green Bay Packers during the first quarter in the 2017 NFC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

3. A quarterback won’t win Super Bowl MVP

While Brady and Ryan will play well in this game, neither are going to win Super Bowl MVP. They’ll have too many empty passing yards, an egregious turnover, and not a lot of passing touchdowns.

If this game was played in the 1980s, yes, maybe Brady or Ryan would win Super Bowl MVP with a stat line like this: 18 of 25 passes for 250 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Sunday won’t be one of those days.

Super Bowl MVP will go to one of these three type of players: a dominant running back with over 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns, a receiver with that kind of stat line, or a defensive player who scores a touchdown on that side of the ball.

For as much as the media would want to give Super Bowl MVP to the winning quarterback, there will be a player on the winning team that was more impactful in leading his team to victory. He’ll have an iconic play that won’t quite eclipse the special teams gaffe, but will be on Super Bowl highlights tapes until the end of time.

Nov 23, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick looks on against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

2. Go with the under in this one

Las Vegas has the over/under in Super Bowl 51 at 58 combined points. Sportsbooks are expecting a good, old-fashioned shootout in a dome on Super Bowl Sunday. However, that is not going to be the case.

That’s because the winning team isn’t going to score 30 points. Look for the first quarter of Super Bowl LI to be strangely low-scoring. It wouldn’t be all that shocking if neither team gets into the end zone that first frame. The first quarter will be a feeling out period for the Falcons and Patriots.

While no lead is safe in a Super Bowl, both teams will be stout defensively on Sunday. Punts will be commonplace at Houston. We might even see a few three-and-outs from these two explosive offenses.

People want to be entertained in the Super Bowl, so picking the over for the sake of wanting to see more points makes sense. However, Belichick and Quinn will play a well-orchestrated game of chess on Sunday. In terms of the over/under, we’re not looking at a game in the upper 50s, probably settling for something in the high 40s to low 50s in combined points.

Jan 22, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers in the 2017 NFC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

1. Atlanta Falcons 27, New England Patriots 24

This has been one of the hardest games to envision how it will play out. Will New England use its Super Bowl experience to its advantage to win Lombardi Trophy No. 5? Does Atlanta have the dynamism to win its first Lombardi Trophy?

We know that New England’s greatest advantage in this game is experience. However, Atlanta’s greatest advantage in this game will trump New England’s experience advantage: Atlanta is just too fast for New England to contain for all four quarters.

If Atlanta treats this game like it has for the first 18 of its 2016 season, the Falcons won’t be awestruck of by the magnitude of playing in a Super Bowl. Once the jitter wear off and it’s just football, Atlanta will be the aggressor on both sides of the ball.

Atlanta has played a more difficult schedule that New England has this year. The Falcons’ path to Super Bowl 51 has been more difficult that New England’s. Home wins over Seattle and Green Bay are more impressive that home wins over Houston and Pittsburgh. New England will play sound football, but won’t be able to match Atlanta’s aggressiveness and intensity. The Falcons will win their first Super Bowl by a field goal, 27-24.