New York Knicks: Realistic Expectations For Brandon Jennings In 2016-17

What exactly can New York Knicks fans expect of sixth man Brandon Jennings in 2016-17? Phil Jackson challenged him to win Sixth Man of the Year.

Sep 26, 2016; White Plains, NY, USA; New York Knicks point guard Brandon Jennings addresses the media during the New York Knicks Media Day at Ritz-Carlton. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Knicks are dangerously close to the beginning of what’s shaping up to be one of the most important seasons in franchise history. Phil Jackson is approaching his third season as team president and the Knicks haven’t made the playoffs since 2013.

In an attempt to end that postseason drought, Jackson signed one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NBA: Brandon Jennings.

The Knicks signed Jennings to a one-year deal worth $5 million during the summer of 2016. He’s already stated that he wants to re-sign with the Knicks in 2017, but both New York and Jennings himself have something to prove.

Coming off of what was an erratic season in 2015-16, Jennings will need to prove that he’s worth a multi-year and multi-million dollar investment.

A season ago, Jennings posted averages of 6.9 points, 3.5 assists, 2.0 rebounds, 0.6 steals, and 1.1 3-point field goals in 18.1 minutes per game. He was fresh off of an achilles injury, however, and traditionally produces at a far higher rate.

The question is: what can the Knicks realistically expect to receive from Jennings in 2016-17?

Feb 4, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Brandon Jennings (7) takes a shot over New York Knicks forward Kyle O’Quinn (9) during the second quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Scoring

If there’s one thing that you should know about Brandon Jennings, it’s that he can score at an elite level when he’s focused and dialed in. He’s one of the more dangerous and respected scorers in the NBA.

With a career regular season average of 15.5 points per game and a career postseason mark of 16.7, Jennings is a reliable source of offensive production.

Jennings averaged 19.1 points per game in 2011-12, 17.5 in 2012-13, 15.5 in 2013-14, and 15.4 in 2014-15. Those are solid averages that seem to regress, but it’s the lowest that may be the most significant.

Jennings averaged those 15.4 points in just 28.4 minutes of playing time per game, which translates to a per 36 average of 19.4 points.

Jennings’ scoring hit a sharp decline in 2015-16, when he played in 48 games following a ruptured achilles tendon. He still averaged 13.8 points per 36 minutes, however, which isn’t a bad place for a backup point guard to be.

It’s also impossible to forget the fact that Jennings once scored 55 points in a single game and has 32 career 30-point games, 75 25-point games, and 146 20-point games.

A realistic expectation is both tempered and optimistic, and it’s fair to believe that Jennings will be scoring in double-figures this coming season.

Realistic Expectation: 12.0 PPG, 1.5 3PM, .400/.350/.800

Mar 29, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Brandon Jennings (55) drives to the basket as Brooklyn Nets guard Wayne Ellington (21) defends during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Facilitating

The New York Knicks need a player who can take over games as a playmaker. There are more than enough scorers to lead a productive offensive unit, but Jeff Hornacek needs a point guard who can control the pace and facilitate the offense.

Jennings is both a productive and efficient facilitator who can help the Knicks run the offense during the 2016-17 season.

Jennings has a career average of 5.9 assists per game, which would be more than ideal from the Knicks’ sixth man. He boasts a career assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.57, which is quite efficient for a ball-dominant player.

Even in 2015-16, when he was hindered by injuries, Jennings averaged 7.1 assists per 36 minutes—a quality number, to say the least.

Jennings averaged 8.0 assists per 36 minutes or more in both 2013-14 and 2014-15. That’s an accurate projection for Jennings. He was averaging 15.4 points and 6.6 assists in 28.4 minutes per game before his injury in 2014-15, which is in line with his minutes projection for 2016-17.

It’s also fair to expect Jennings to have a fair number of explosive performances.

If a player can dish out 21 assists in a single game, then they have the raw talent to be a consistent and reliable source of pace and production.

Realistic Expectation: 6.0 APG, 2.4 TOPG Ratio, 2.50 A/TO Ratio

Dec 26, 2015; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Brandon Jennings (7) before the game against the Boston Celtics at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Defense

Brandon Jennings has never been a lockdown defender, but he has value on the defensive end. He’s a quick and opportunistic defender who plays the passing lanes and picks his opponents’ pockets.

Jennings struggled to make plays on defense in 2015-16, but with a full offseason behind him, he should be closer to full strength.

Jennings has a career average of 1.3 steals per game. For a New York Knicks team that’s attempting to push the pace and get out in transition under head coach Jeff Hornacek, having a player who can create turnovers will be invaluable.

The question is: will Jennings be closer to the 0.6 steals per game he averaged in 2015-16 or the 1.6 he averaged in 2012-13?

Jennings averaged 1.3 steals per game in 2013-14 and 1.1 in 2014-15, which is a fair range to project. He’s playing for a team that needs him to be active in attempting to force turnovers, however, and has two top-flight rim protectors behind in Joakim Noah and Kristaps Porzingis.

Expect Jennings to take chances and rack up a fair amount of steals during the 2016-17 NBA regular season?

Realistic Expectation: 1.5 SPG, .450 DEF FG%

Dec 31, 2015; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Brandon Jennings (7) gets defended by Minnesota Timberwolves center Gorgui Dieng (5) during the third quarter at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Pistons win 115-90. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Health & Availability

Much like fellow New York Knicks point guard Derrick Rose, sixth man Brandon Jennings has injury concerns. He ruptured his achilles tendon in 2014-15 and played in just 48 games during the 2015-16 regular season.

The reality is: Jennings has shown minimal signs of being a consistent injury risk.

Jennings played in at least 80 games in three of his first five seasons in the NBA. He played the full 66-game lockout-shortened season in 2011-12, giving him a nearly complete campaign in four of five years.

He was injured just 41 games into the 2014-15 season, however, and missed 34 games due to injury in 2015-16.

The encouraging news is that Jennings was active for 48 of 53 games following his return from injury in 2015-16. Four of the five games that he missed were for precautionary purposes at the end of the regular season.

It’s certainly possible that Jennings will miss some time in 2016-17, but he should be able to play at least 70 games this coming season.

Realistic Expectation: 28.0 MPG, 75 Games Played

Jan 7, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Brandon Jennings (7) drives to the basket against the Dallas Mavericks during the second half at the American Airlines Center. The Pistons defeated the Mavericks 108-95. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Sixth Man of the Year?

New York Knicks team president Phil Jackson has challenged Brandon Jennings to win the 2016-17 Sixth Man of the Year award. It’s a lofty goal on paper, but Jennings is a career starter with postseason experience.

Thus, it stands to reason that Jackson’s challenge hasn’t fallen on deaf ears, but instead landed with arguably the most viable candidate in the NBA.

Jennings enters 2016-17 with career averages of 15.5 points, 5.9 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.8 3-point field goals made. He boasts a career slash line of .390/.350/.799, which is both inefficient from the field and ideal in the other two areas.

If Jennings were to post those exact numbers on a winning Knicks team in 2016-17, it’d be hard to argue against him winning Sixth Man of the Year.

Jennings can consistently create offense for himself and others, which few Sixth Man of the Year award winners have been able to do. No Sixth Man of the Year has averaged at least 4.0 assists since Manu Ginobili in 2007-08 or 5.0 assists since Aaron McKie in 200-01.

The last Sixth Max of the Year to average at least 6.0 assists was Darrell Armstrong in 1998-99.

If Jennings can produce as both a scorer and a facilitator, he’ll be on the fast track to the 2017 Sixth Man of the Year award.

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