NBA Predictions: 2016-17 NBA Win Total Projections
Now that Las Vegas has released its over/under projected win totals for the 2016-17 NBA season, here are HoopsHabit’s NBA predictions on where everyone will end up.
Nov 12, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) dribbles in the first quarter against Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Tuesday morning, the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released its over/under win totals for the 2016-17 NBA season, and ever since then, Basketball Twitter has been jam-packed with NBA predictions about which bets are guaranteed winners and which are too risky to touch.
In the weeks leading up to the unveiling of the official betting lines, Hoops Habit had been slowly revealing win predictions of our own. Now that the lines are released, it’s time to pour over the official odds and examine how they compare to the win projections we set.
It’d be easy to take a look at teams like the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Pelicans and Washington Wizards and automatically assume they drastically improve, but what most people don’t ever think about is where those extra wins will come from.
Most people don’t realize that in every NBA season, there needs to be a grand total of 1,230 wins and 1,230 losses between the 30 teams — 82 games times 30 teams equals 2,460 games every season, with one winner and one loser in each one. For every win one team gains, another needs to tack on a loss, which is what makes the process of figuring out win totals so difficult.
Will the Golden State Warriors win 70 games again this year? Are the Timberwolves ready to make the playoffs in their first year under Tom Thibodeau? And how many wins will it take to make the playoffs in each conference?
To answer these and all your other questions on the projected win totals for 2016-17, it’s time to make some NBA predictions with a look at each individual team, whether they can be expected to go over or under Vegas’ line, and how many games we’re predicting them to win here at HoopsHabit.
Apr 26, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) and guard Dennis Schroder (17) react against the Boston Celtics in the third quarter in game five of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Celtics 110-83. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Over/Under: 43.5
The Atlanta Hawks are a classic case of losses needing to pile up somewhere. Though they were able to replace Al Horford with another star center in Dwight Howard, and though Dennis Schroder is a hands-on replacement for Jeff Teague, both can be considered downgrades.
Kyle Korver is 35, Howard and Tiago Splitter have been injury-prone in recent years, Kent Bazemore might not exceed expectations now that he’s cashed in on his contract year and there may be spacing issues on offense between Howard and Paul Millsap.
Mike Budenholzer is a tremendous coach, which makes Vegas’ line at 43.5 a risky bet either way. But with so many teams improving in the East, the most likely outcome for last year’s 48-win squad finishes around .500 in 2016-17.
Hoops Habit Projection: 41 (under)
Apr 19, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas (4) and Atlanta Hawks center Al Horford (15) fight for a loose ball in the third quarter of game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. The Hawks won 89-72. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Boston Celtics
Vegas Over/Under: 51.5
Vegas was right on the money with this one. With Al Horford joining the fold, the Boston Celtics figure to be real players atop the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They probably won’t have enough to knock the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers from their perch at No. 1, but the No. 2 seed in the East isn’t out of the question.
Horford gives Boston the star center they’ve needed, and though he’s not an elite rim protector, he’s one of the league’s best/most versatile/most underrated interior defenders. He also averaged 1.5 blocks per game last season, so he’s not useless on that front either.
With another year of internal development for guys like Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, this is going to be a tenacious defense and well-coached team overall. We have the Celtics finishing with 51 wins, but since it’s so close to the line, it could very well be more than that.
Hoops Habit Projection: 51 (under)
Mar 28, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez (11) is pressured by Miami Heat forward Amar’e Stoudemire (5) during the second half at American Airlines Arena. The Heat won 110-99. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Over/Under: 20.5
The Brooklyn Nets won a grand total of 21 games last season with Brook Lopez staying healthy and playing 73 games. That made two seasons in a row of at least 72 games for Lopez, but given his extensive history of foot injuries, one setback would immediately put Brooklyn on the path to the worst record in the league, which they’re already in the running for as it is.
There’s also the possibility that general manager Sean Marks recognizes his opportunity to sell high and turn Lopez into future draft picks to help rebuild a franchise in desperate need of a full-scale reclamation. If that’s the case, Lopez could very well be gone by the trade deadline.
Watching Jeremy Lin back at the helm of his own NBA team will be exciting. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris LeVert and Chris McCullough are young players to keep an eye on as well. But Thaddeus Young’s departure hurts an already poor defense, and even if you’re not willing to go as insultingly low as we are, 20.5 wins seems a bit much for a team that didn’t get much better over the summer.
Hoops Habit Projection: 16 (under)
Mar 12, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Nicolas Batum (5) tries to tip a pass to guard Kemba Walker (15) in the first half against the Houston Rockets at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Over/Under: 39.5
This is a shockingly low line for a team that won 48 games last year. The Charlotte Hornets lost some valuable pieces this summer, with Jeremy Lin, Al Jefferson and Courtney Lee all bolting for more lucrative deals in free agency, sure.
But by retaining Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams, getting back a healthy Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and adding Roy Hibbert on a bargain contract, the Hornets’ key pieces are all still intact. A defensive-minded coach like Steve Clifford should be able to help Hibbert find his footing again, and in the six games Batum and MKG both played in last year, Charlotte was a +12.4.
That’s a small sample size, and the Hornets are probably due for a drop-off in the win column with so many key pieces gone. But Charlotte should be better than the eight- or nine-game plummet Vegas is projecting. Somewhere around 42 wins and a fringe playoff spot feels appropriate here.
Hoops Habit Projection: 42 (over)
Apr 7, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade (3) dribbles the ball as Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler (21) defends during the second half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago Bulls
Vegas Over/Under: 38.5
It’s always risky betting against a proven NBA champion of Dwyane Wade’s caliber, especially when he’s playing for a Chicago Bulls team that, on paper, should be improving as Jimmy Butler enters his prime.
But there are too many question marks in the Windy City to confidently take the over. How will a Rajon Rondo-Dwyane Wade-Jimmy Butler backcourt score points when none of them can shoot threes? Is Nikola Mirotic capable of shouldering all that floor-spacing responsibility as a stretch-4? And at age 34, can Wade even stay healthy like he did last year when he played 73 games?
Fred Hoiberg was a massive disappointment in his first season, and Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol are all gone. Gasol was the only one who was really good last season, but as happy as Wade’s homecoming was, it’s a messy fit on a Bulls team that is still searching for its identity.
Hoops Habit Projection: 37 (under)
Jun 19, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) celebrates with the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy after beating the Golden State Warriors in game seven of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Over/Under: 56.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a tricky team to peg. If they wanted to, a LeBron James-led team could easily win 60+ games in the Eastern Conference. But over the past few years, King James has gotten more responsible, resting more often during the regular season to save himself for his annual Herculean-sometimes-bordering-on-Sisyphean workload in the playoffs.
With the Warriors revamping and adding Kevin Durant, the need for rest is paramount — not only for James, but possibly for Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love as well. No matter what seed the Cavs finish with, they’ll be the favorites to represent the East in the NBA Finals.
That puts less pressure on them to take the regular season seriously, so staying consistent with last year’s win total of 57 seems rational. This might be a bet you want to stay away from, since James missed only six games last year and that number could very easily increase.
Hoops Habit Projection: 57 (over)
Apr 21, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) looks at the replay screen during the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder in game three of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. The Thunder defeated the Mavericks 131-102. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Over/Under: 39.5
Vegas doesn’t seem to have much faith in Harrison Barnes and an aging frontcourt of Dirk Nowitzki and Andrew Bogut. But for the last half-decade, the general formula of Rick Carlisle + healthy Dirk Nowitzki has usually equalled a playoff spot for the Dallas Mavericks.
Barnes may not have the breakout season some are expecting, but at worst, he’ll be a useful role player, three-point shooter and versatile defender on the wing. Everyone thought this Mavs team was going to tank in 2015-16; instead, they won 42 games and earned the sixth seed in the West.
Bogut gives the Mavs a more legitimate rim protector, Barnes is a younger, healthier replacement for Chandler Parsons and we’re still waiting to see Nowitzki’s game fall off the map. Maybe 45 wins is a bit too optimistic, but taking the over seems like a safe bet.
Hoops Habit Projection: 45 (over)
Mar 27, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) is defended by Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan (6) during an NBA game at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Denver Nuggets
Vegas Over/Under: 34.5
Before taking any other team in the West into account, taking the over on the Denver Nuggets feels like a pretty straight forward bet. The Nuggets won 33 games last year, they’ll enjoy another season of internal growth for guys like Nikola Jokic and Gary Harris, and a healthy Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler will make a difference as well.
So why is our projection so low, even if it’s still technically over the Vegas line of 34.5? Well, as promising as this young team’s future is, there are some rotational issues to sort out with so much depth at each position.
Will Kenneth Faried be traded? Can sophomore phenom Nikola Jokic handle an 82-game grind now that he’s playing starter’s minutes and facing stronger centers on a night-to-night basis? Will Gallo and Chandler stay healthy? Can Emmanuel Mudiay improve on an underwhelming rookie year? The Nuggets’ future is looking up, but the West is stacked and the losses have to come from somewhere. Take the over, but temper expectations a bit, since .500 is a best-case scenario.
Hoops Habit Projection: 36 (over)
Mar 23, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond (0) talks to guard Reggie Jackson (1) during the third quarter against the Orlando Magic at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Pistons win 118-102. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Detroit Pistons
Vegas Over/Under: 45.5
Reggie Jackson is probably right — the Detroit Pistons could be scary this year. The Indiana Pacers are not as good as everyone seems to think and aside from the Cavaliers, Celtics and Raptors, that No. 4 seed in the East is pretty much wide open.
Enter the young Pistons, who have been molded into a typical Stan Van Gundy team in just a two-year span. Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris and Stanley Johnson all have room for growth, and Detroit spent the summer shoring up what was one of the worst benches in the NBA last year.
Detroit already won 44 games last season, so a three-game improvement is hardly a stretch. It’ll take great injury luck again, but with an improved bench and a young core that’s still on the rise, the Pistons could be ready to capitalize on a weakened East in 2016-17.
Hoops Habit Projection: 47 (over)
May 30, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) shoots the basketball against Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) during the first quarter in game seven of the Western conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Golden State Warriors
Vegas Over/Under: 66.5
This is a tough one. The Golden State Warriors won 73 games last season, and what they lost in bench depth they made up in Kevin Durant. The regular season wins won’t pile on because of the loss of all that depth, but the starting five is so damn good they could steamroll their way to 70 wins anyway.
However, after setting the NBA record for most regular season wins and then losing the championship, securing the No. 1 seed in the West is all the Dubs have their sights set on for the regular season. No records, no 74 wins, no undefeated record at home. This is about what happens after the regular season, and resting the starters will be more important this time around.
Because of this, because they only need to secure the No. 1 seed and because of a likely adjustment period where Durant, Stephen Curry and the other Warriors stars play timid because they’re trying not to step on each other’s toes, taking the under — just barely — seems like the smart play. Or, you know, they could just annihilate everyone and win 70 games regardless.
Hoops Habit Projection: 65 (under)
Apr 21, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) points up after a play during the second quarter against the Golden State Warriors in game three of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Rockets
Vegas Over/Under: 41.5
The Houston Rockets are just as likely to soar under Mike D’Antoni’s hand as they are to implode. There’s a lot riding on this season, from James Harden’s reputation to Mike D’s fading career to general manager Daryl Morey’s sanity.
But as bad as this defense is going to be, the prospect of teaming up Harden — a superstar scorer and facilitator — with D’Antoni — a coach who revolutionized the NBA back when he had another elite floor general in Steve Nash — is a tantalizing one. Maybe not “44 wins tantalizing,” but still intriguing enough to take the over.
This rides on the health of Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, who were brought in to improve Houston’s mediocre three-point shooting. It also depends on Clint Capela making the leap in Year 3. But the playoffs were up for grabs with 41 wins last season, and with an even more lethal offense in 2016-17, a bounce-back year for James Harden and the Rockets is still plausible.
Hoops Habit Projection: 44 (over)
Apr 23, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) and forward Paul George (13) wait to be introduced before the game against the Toronto Raptors in game four of the first round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Indiana Pacers
Vegas Over/Under: 43.5
The Indiana Pacers are not going to be as great as people think. Paul George is a top-15 superstar in this league, and the offense got better with the additions of Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young. But even if they’re not a contender next season, with the bar set so low at 43.5, taking the over is still the right course of action here.
After all, Myles Turner could be due for a sophomore breakout as the team’s starting center, and although the Al Jefferson addition makes no sense for a team that wants to play faster, he will help the Pacers’ bench get buckets.
Head coach Nate McMillan has some big shoes to fill with Frank Vogel let go, and this team’s defensive identity will be getting quite a makeover. But after winning 45 games last season, even another 45-win season would put them above Vegas’ projection.
Hoops Habit Projection: 46 (over)
Dec 16, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) and guard Chris Paul (3) react in the fourth quarter during an NBA basketball game against the Milwaukee Bucks at Staples Center. The Clippers defeated the Bucks 103-90. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Over/Under: 53.5
This line seems almost disrespectful to the Los Angeles Clippers. Even with Blake Griffin missing 47 games last year, Lob City still won 53 games. With Griffin and Chris Paul both ready for the start of training camp, did guys like CP3 and J.J. Redick really get that much older?
The bench is still an issue, but the core of Griffin, Paul and DeAndre Jordan has been good for 53, 56, 57 and 56 wins over the last four seasons. With the Oklahoma City Thunder losing Kevin Durant over the summer, the West also has one less title contender to worry about
That doesn’t exactly open up the road to the NBA Finals for the Clippers, but the No. 2 seed could be in play. Even if the Spurs once again seize that spot, however, Lob City is still the third-best team in the West and should be good for at least 54 wins.
Hoops Habit Projection: 56 (over)
Mar 8, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson (6) and Lakers guard D’Angelo Russell (1) speak in the second half of the game against the Orlando Magic at Staples Center. The Lakers won 107-98. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Over/Under: 24.5
The Los Angeles Lakers have a promising future. They’ve got a saliva-inducing core of D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram and Julius Randle, they’ve got veteran leadership with Luol Deng, and head coach Luke Walton should be a vast improvement over Byron Scott.
But expecting a drastic one-year turnaround from Walton might be asking a bit much, especially once the losses start piling up and player development becomes the main priority. Roy Hibbert wasn’t able to save the NBA’s worst defense last season, and it’s highly unlikely Timofey Mozgov fares any differently.
The Lakers only won 17 games last season, so even though Kobe Bryant won’t be around to steal all the spotlight and all the shots, a five-game win improvement is still decent enough progress for a young team on the rise. Maybe Walton pulls off the impossible, but the safer bet is probably taking the under.
Hoops Habit Projection: 22 (under)
Dec 11, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) and center Marc Gasol (33) look on during the second half against the Charlotte Hornets at FedExForum. The Hornets won 123-99. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Over/Under: 43.5
It appears we’re a bit more optimistic about the chances of Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons all staying healthy in 2016-17. Considering the Memphis Grizzlies won 42 games with Big Spain and Conley missing a combined 56 games last year, 50 wins doesn’t seem too unreasonable.
Parsons has missed at least 15 games in three of his five NBA seasons, and his knee will have him limited for the start of training camp. But for a team that had a grand total of 28 players on its roster over the course of the season — an NBA record — a return to better health could make all the difference.
The Grizzlies found their solution on the wing, they re-signed Conley, they’ll be getting a healthy Gasol back and their defense will still be scary. Here’s to one more year of the grit-n-grind, which should be enough for at least 44 games.
Hoops Habit Projection: 50 (over)
Mar 17, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Goran Dragic (tight) talks with Heat center Hassan Whiteside (left) during the first half against the Charlotte Hornets at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Miami Heat
Vegas Over/Under: 36.5
Let’s see here…Dwyane Wade is gone…Chris Bosh’s health situation still hasn’t been sorted out less than a week away from training camp…Josh Richardson will likely miss the start of the season recovering from a torn MCL…and Hassan Whiteside’s ego and less than stellar attitude just got rewarded with a max contract.
The Miami Heat may be fun to watch if only because Goran Dragic will have the ball back in his hands, sure. Whiteside taking on a larger role will be interesting and Dion Waiters never fails to entertain.
But the Heat lost Wade, Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and still don’t have Bosh cleared. Pat Riley completely failed to assemble a competitive roster this summer, so even though Miami may not be “32 wins bad,” we’re taking the under here.
Hoops Habit Projection: 32 (under)
Nov 4, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34), guard Michael Carter-Williams (5) and forward Khris Middleton during the game against the Philadelphia 76ers at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Milwaukee won 91-87. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Over/Under: 39.5
Before news of Khris Middleton’s hamstring injury broke, we still had the Milwaukee Bucks at 38 wins. With him out for around six months, putting the young Bucks at 33 wins seems pretty optimistic. No matter what, taking the under is the only appropriate course of action here.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo poised to make the leap in Year 4, his time at the point guard position will be thrilling to watch. Jabari Parker will get to flourish as the team’s No. 2 option on offense, and adding the perimeter shooting of Mirza Teletovic and Matthew Dellavedova should open things up for the offense.
But Greg Monroe is still a bad fit for a once elite defense and the Bucks just lost a terrific two-way player who also represented their best long range threat. Milwaukee has a bright future, but it may have to wait another year thanks to Middleton’s injury.
Hoops Habit Projection: 33 (under)
Apr 3, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins (22) high fives center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) in the third quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at Target Center. The Dallas Mavericks beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 88-78. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Over/Under: 41.5
With Tom Thibodeau on board to revamp the defense, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins a year older and promising rookie Kris Dunn onboard, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been a popular pick as a Western dark horse playoff team in 2016-17.
The Wolves will be a Western juggernaut soon enough, but expecting a 12- or 13-game improvement is a bit much for a Timberpups squad coming off a 29-win season.
Thibs will turn that defense around in time, but it won’t happen overnight. KAT and Wiggins are going to be scary good, but expecting the Wolves to finish .500 better so soon — in a competitive Western Conference, no less — is just setting the bar a bit too high for these youngsters.
Hoops Habit Projection: 37 (under)
Jan 6, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis (23) looks on during the first quarter of a game against the Dallas Mavericks at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Over/Under: 36.5
This might be one pick to stay away from. Before the official projections were unveiled, we were waffling between 34 and 36 wins for the New Orleans Pelicans, and Vegas’ line did little to clear things up.
On the one hand, the Pellies could take the over with a career year from Anthony Davis, a bounce-back year from Terrence Jones and emergent seasons from free agency acquisitions Solomon Hill and E’Twaun Moore.
But with Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday entering the season banged up, NOLA might not even get a chance to start off on a better note than their disastrous 1-11 start to 2015-16. The Brow will do his best to make sure that doesn’t happen again, but the Pellies probably won’t see a seven-game improvement with their two best guards already injured.
Hoops Habit Projection: 34 (under)
Apr 8, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony (7) against the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center. The New York Knicks won 109-102. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
New York Knicks
Vegas Over/Under: 38.5
Probably an unpopular pick, since not many people are high on the New York Knicks these days. Even with big-name acquisitions like Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee, Joakim Noah and Brandon Jennings in the Big Apple, the injury-proneness of this roster is a concern right off the bat.
Noah hasn’t been healthy in two years, D-Rose barely turned in a relatively healthy year just last season and Jennings has been trying to get back from his Achilles injury the last two years. Even if everyone stays healthy, sharing the ball between Rose, Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis won’t be easy either.
But if everyone does stay relatively healthy, this is a team capable of winning half of its games, right? If Noah looks more like 2013-14 Noah as a defensive anchor, if Melo continues to share the ball and if Rose is at least average? Right? Anyone?
Hoops Habit Projection: 39 (over)
Mar 18, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) reacts to his dunk against the Philadelphia 76ers during the third quarter at Wells Fargo Center. The Oklahoma City Thunder won 111-97.Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Over/Under: 45.5
With Kevin Durant gone, expectations for Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder are all over the map. The closest thing we have to an example of what to expect is 2014-15, when KD missed 55 games, Westbrook missed 15 games…and OKC still won 45 games.
Swapping Victor Oladipo for Serge Ibaka obviously throws a wrench in any potential straight-away correlations there, and we should note that KD (27) and Westbrook (67) still played plenty of games to get OKC within playoff range. They’ll be getting zero games from the combined dynamic duo in 2016-17.
With Russ on the warpath and Steven Adams on the rise, the Thunder will still be competitive. It’s hard to know what to expect from OKC, but if anything happens to Russ, if he fails to step up as “the guy” or if Oladipo once again fails to put together a breakout season, the under feels like the safer proposition.
Hoops Habit Projection: 45 (under)
Apr 3, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic forward Aaron Gordon (00) celebrates after hitting a shot in the fourth quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at Amway Center. The Orlando Magic won 119-107. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
Orlando Magic
Vegas Over/Under: 36.5
By sending away Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo in the course of one year, the Orlando Magic were supposedly trading some of their youth for game-changing pieces who would give them the opportunity to return to the playoffs. The only problem is, they didn’t execute the second part of that plan very well.
Serge Ibaka is a great addition with the playoffs in mind, but the Bismack Biyombo addition crowds a frontcourt rotation that already includes Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and the newly acquired Jeff Green. How does Frank Vogel sort through all that depth, exactly?
Elfrid Payton’s shooting woes won’t be as noticeable with better shooters around him, but the Magic may have just sacrificed part of their future for a fruitless attempt at returning to the postseason, in which their best-case scenario would be serving as first round fodder.
Hoops Habit Projection: 35 (under)
Jul 12, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Ben Simmons (25) dribbles the ball during an NBA Summer League game against the Golden State Warriors at Thomas & Mack Center. Golden State won the game 85-77. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Over/Under: 27.5
Vegas must know something we don’t, because setting the line at 27.5 wins for a Philadelphia 76ers squad that won 10 games last season is just BEGGING for you to take the under. Seriously, a 17- or 18-game improvement in the win column??
Maybe Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid challenge each other for the Rookie of the Year Award. Maybe Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Dario Saric are major surprises in their rookie seasons too. And maybe Jerryd Bayless is a major veteran influence while the Sixers figure out how to manage that crowded frontcourt rotation.
But even if all that happens, it’d still be hard to project an 18-game improvement for Philly in 2016-17. The Sixers finally have franchise players to build around, but taking the over would be downright lunacy.
Hoops Habit Projection: 18 (under)
Mar 10, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) dribbles the ball up court in the third quarter against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Phoenix Suns
Vegas Over/Under: 26.5
The Phoenix Suns are an incredibly tough team to predict for the 2016-17 season, which makes this line one you might want to stay away from. Are they ready for a bounce-back year that surprises people like in 2013-14? Or are they in store for another tank year?
Last season, the Suns won only 23 games…but Eric Bledsoe missed 51 games, Brandon Knight missed 30, T.J. Warren missed 35 and Markieff Morris’ drama was a major distraction until the day he was traded.
The Suns could roll with a more experienced starting lineup and bring promising youngsters like Devin Booker off the bench to start the season. They could wind up going all in on their youth movement if injury-prone guards like Bledsoe and Knight are banged up again. Phoenix should be better with their guards all healthy (for now), but don’t be surprised if things go south quickly again in 2016-17.
Hoops Habit Projection: 30 (over)
Jan 29, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) and guard C.J. McCollum (3) look on against the Charlotte Hornets during the fourth quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Over/Under: 46.5
The Portland Trail Blazers were supposed to be a tanking team in 2015-16, but instead, they surprised the basketball world with 44 wins and a second round playoff appearance. It was a hugely successful season, but the rest of the West got better this summer.
Rip City spent most its summer re-signing its younger auxiliary players to inflated deals, while also adding Evan Turner on a similarly bloated contract.
Terry Stotts is a tremendous coach and Damian Lillard proved he’s a franchise star last year, but a three-game improvement in an improved West might be asking too much of these youngsters. Another season of around 44 wins seems about right — well short of the 47 it’d take for the over.
Hoops Habit Projection: 44 (under)
Mar 9, 2016; Sacramento, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins (15) reacts to a call with the referee during the second quarter of the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Sleep Train Arena. The Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Sacramento Kings 120-111. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
Sacramento Kings
Vegas Over/Under: 32.5
The Sacramento Kings have only reached the 30-win threshold once in the DeMarcus Cousins era — last season, when they won 33 games with Rajon Rondo running the point in George Karl’s rapid-paced offense.
Rondo and Karl are gone now, putting a more competent Dave Joerger in place as head coach. But the Kings’ role players arguably got worse and/or younger this summer, once again surrounding Boogie with an incompetent supporting cast.
Cousins can — and probably will — turn in another career season in 2016-17, and the Kings will still be as underwhelming as ever. Barring some drastic leap from Willie Cauley-Stein and this Joerger-led team, Sacramento seems destined for another season of flirting with that 30-win line.
Hoops Habit Projection: 30 (under)
May 8, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard (2) reacts after a play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the fourth quarter in game four of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Over/Under: 56.5
Most NBA gamblers know this by now, but the San Antonio Spurs are a team you want to stay away from. Year in and year out, no matter what the line is set at, just stay away from this franchise that continually churns out regular season wins like butter.
Last season, the Spurs won a franchise-record 67 games…and promptly lost to a superior Oklahoma City Thunder team in the playoffs. The stellar depth that helped San Antonio rack up so many regular season wins disappeared in the postseason as the rotations shortened on both sides.
Some might argue that in addition to the loss of some bench depth, the Spurs’ defense downgraded with the team losing Tim Duncan and Boris Diaw and bringing on Pau Gasol. A 12-win drop seems drastic, but in the first post-Duncan season, it’s hard to know what to expect. We’re barely taking the under, but staying away from the Spurs is the smart play either way.
Hoops Habit Projection: 56 (under)
Apr 1, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) and guard DeMar DeRozan (10) look on during the second half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Toronto beat Memphis 99-95. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
Toronto Raptors
Vegas Over/Under: 49.5
The Toronto Raptors didn’t find the star power forward they needed for their starting lineup, and losing Bismack Biyombo in free agency hurts their frontcourt depth. But “We The North” has been on the rise for three straight seasons now, and another offseason of continuity doesn’t figure to lead to the six-game drop-off it’d take for Toronto to finish under 49.5 wins.
Kyle Lowry is back, DeMar DeRozan is re-signed and the Raptors are ready to build on last year’s franchise-record success — especially now that those playoff demons may have been exorcised by a conference finals appearance.
The Boston Celtics have a major new piece to incorporate into their starting lineup, but the Raptors don’t. This is basically the same team with Jared Sullinger and rookie Jakob Poeltl thrown in, and it may not even take that long-awaited career year from Jonas Valanciunas to get the Raptors to 50 wins.
Hoops Habit Projection: 53 (over)
Nov 15, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) and forward Derrick Favors (15) react after defeating the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena. The Jazz defeated the Hawks 97-96. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Utah Jazz
Vegas Over/Under: 47.5
This seems like a drastic leap for a team that’s finished in the lottery for four straight seasons and only won 40 games last year, but the Utah Jazz are as well-poised as anyone to make the leap into a legitimate playoff squad in 2016-17.
Barring more injury-setbacks, which have been the bane of this franchise the last two years, the young Jazz stand to benefit from another year of internal growth for Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert and Rodney Hood; a return to health for Dante Exum and Alec Burks; and the acquired veteran leadership of George Hill, Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson.
We’ve barely got the Jazz over the line at 48 wins, but a 50-32 record isn’t completely out of the question either. Injury concerns persist, but assuming Utah finally catches a break on that front, we’re taking our chances on the over.
Hoops Habit Projection: 48 (over)
Feb 9, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) and guard Bradley Beal (3) chest bump in celebration during the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Washington Wizards won111-108. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Wizards
Vegas Over/Under: 42.5
The Washington Wizards‘ 2016-17 season essentially comes down to two questions, both of which revolve around the backcourt: 1) Can Bradley Beal finally stay healthy enough to play at least 70 games? and 2) Can he and John Wall get along well enough for this team to return to the postseason?
A year ago, that last question would’ve seemed absurd. This was a franchise on the rise that was going to put together another promising year and try to sway Kevin Durant to come back home in free agency.
Instead, the Wizards largely underwhelmed and now have questions to answer. That line of 42.5 is pretty much right on the money, but we’re taking the under until Beal can prove that he can not only stay healthy, but also put together the career year we’ve been waiting on.
Hoops Habit Projection: 41 (under)
Dec 15, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) drives to the hoop againt Boston Celtics forward Jae Crowder (99) during the first half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
League Overview
Now that we’ve gone through each team, here’s a look at where each team is projected to finish in 2016-17 — according to the Las Vegas Westgate Sportsbook and according to our NBA predictions here at Hoops Habit:
Vegas:
Western Conference Eastern Conference
1. Golden State Warriors — 66.5 1. Cleveland Cavaliers — 56.5
2. San Antonio Spurs — 56.5 2. Boston Celtics — 51.5
3. Los Angeles Clippers — 53.5 3. Toronto Raptors — 49.5
4. Utah Jazz — 47.5 4. Detroit Pistons — 45.5
5. Portland Trail Blazers — 46.5 5. Indiana Pacers — 43.5
6. Oklahoma City Thunder — 45.5 6. Atlanta Hawks — 43.5
7. Memphis Grizzlies — 43.5 7. Washington Wizards — 42.5
8. Houston Rockets — 41.5 8. Charlotte Hornets — 39.5
9. Minnesota Timberwolves — 41.5 9. Milwaukee Bucks — 39.5
10. Dallas Mavericks — 39.5 10. New York Knicks — 38.5
11. New Orleans Pelicans — 36.5 11. Chicago Bulls — 38.5
12. Denver Nuggets — 34.5 12. Orlando Magic — 36.5
13. Sacramento Kings — 32.5 13. Miami Heat — 36.5
14. Phoenix Suns — 26.5 14. Philadelphia 76ers — 27.5
15. Los Angeles Lakers — 24.5 15. Brooklyn Nets — 20.5
Hoops Habit:
Western Conference Eastern Conference
1. Golden State Warriors — 65 1. Cleveland Cavaliers — 57
2. San Antonio Spurs — 56 2. Toronto Raptors — 53
3. Los Angeles Clippers — 56 3. Boston Celtics — 51
4. Memphis Grizzlies — 50 4. Detroit Pistons — 47
5. Utah Jazz — 48 5. Indiana Pacers — 46
6. Oklahoma City Thunder — 45 6. Charlotte Hornets — 42
7. Dallas Mavericks — 45 7. Atlanta Hawks — 41
8. Houston Rockets — 44 8. Washington Wizards — 41
9. Portland Trail Blazers — 44 9. New York Knicks — 39
10. Minnesota Timberwolves — 37 10. Chicago Bulls — 37
11. Denver Nuggets — 36 11. Orlando Magic — 35
12. New Orleans Pelicans — 34 12. Milwaukee Bucks — 33
13. Sacramento Kings — 30 13. Miami Heat — 32
14. Phoenix Suns — 30 14. Philadelphia 76ers — 18
15. Los Angeles Lakers — 22 15. Brooklyn Nets — 16
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