By Bob Pockrass
Jimmie Johnson loves challenges – except for the one that he has had over the last month.
In some ways, the pressure is over as he vies for one of the final three playoff spots that remain open at the regular-season finale on Saturday at Daytona International Speedway.
Races at Daytona are, as Johnson puts it, “you sit down at the craps table in Daytona ... and see how it plays out.” Think he’s joking? As Matt DiBenedetto, one of the other drivers on the bubble noted Sunday night, “I would say the thing that pays off the most at Daytona is luck.”
With horsepower cut to 510hp and the high-banked configuration of the oval creating pack racing, where slingshot passes rule as drivers take advantage of the aerodynamic draft, this race is considered the great equalizer – just what a driver doesn’t want when competing for a playoff berth.
But anyone who bets against Johnson – currently the first driver on the outside looking in – either is just a doubter who thinks the 7-time Cup champion doesn’t have it anymore, or doesn’t believe in a good story for a driver in his last full-time season.
Although three spots technically are open, it really is two. Clint Bowyer just needs three points – a 34th-place finish or better or top-10 finishes in each of the first two stages – to clinch a spot. And even if he doesn’t get that, the scenario of Byron finishing second or third and winning stages, combined with a driver outside the top-16 winning the race is so unlikely that Bowyer can start figuring out what cars he needs for the playoffs.
It will come down to these drivers: DiBenedetto is 9 points ahead of Johnson and Johnson’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron is 4 points ahead. Two of the three will make it in unless a driver outside the top-16 wins, which is certainly possible at Daytona. If that happens, only one of those three drivers makes the playoffs.
Johnson appears the most relaxed of the bunch. When a driver has 7 Cup championships, that tends to help relax him.
“I've been doing this too long to worry too much,” Johnson said. “Championship pressure – thankfully I've been through that a bunch of different times.
“I guess actually maybe that's where experience will play through for me this weekend and I'll be able to keep my head on straight, think, keep my emotions in check, and really race with a clear and open mind.”
He also has the least pressure on him. His career won’t be defined if he doesn’t make the playoffs this year.
The other two drivers need to make the playoffs to solidify themselves in the sport. This is DiBenedetto’s best opportunity to make the playoffs in his first year with Wood Brothers Racing, a Team Penske affiliate.
Byron made the playoffs last year, and missing this year would be a significant step backward. He has heralded crew chief Chad Knaus on his pit box. He is supposed to make the playoffs.
The 22-year-old Byron proved Sunday he won’t go down without a fight. He finished fourth at Dover, a day after a miserable 28th-place finish. He leap-frogged Johnson for that final spot above the provisional cutoff, which Johnson had done to him a day earlier.
Byron has a ton of talent and he has many playoff appearances ahead of him. But are drivers really going to help push Byron to a playoff spot or Johnson? All things being equal, they are going to choose Johnson for two reasons: Johnson has great respect and they believe Johnson won’t take as many risks.
DiBenedetto will have the help of the Fords. He has shown he can be a dependable racer at Daytona. Of course, DiBenedetto knows that will only go so far.
"I have ended up at the infield care center the last two years there,” DiBenedetto said. "We keep getting caught up in everyone's mess."
Here’s the other thing: Drivers such as Ryan Newman, Bubba Wallace, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Erik Jones can’t be counted out. All of them are behind the cutline and could pull off the upset. And considering they likely wouldn’t be considered much of a factor in the playoffs, they probably will get help if needed.
But back to Johnson. He has been the best of all those drivers this year as far as overall speed. Yes, he’s made some mistakes. Yes, he missed a race after testing positive for COVID-19. Yes, he lost 45 points after a part failure resulted in a disqualification from a second-place finish at Charlotte.
If you think Johnson relishes this challenge, you’re wrong.
“No there’s not,” Johnson said when asked if there is a part of him that enjoys the challenge. “I went through this last year and mentally saw moments in times I could have changed things.
“This year, I really felt like I was mentally stronger and prepared to worry about points. ... Worrying about points is a different game for me.”
This week means plenty of sleepless nights for these drivers. Johnson, though, knows how to win the mental game.
Give him the nod.
Xfinity: Chastain Coming
Ross Chastain had four top-3 finishes this year before heading into Dover, where he finished third in the opening race and second in the Sunday race, a solid weekend as he still seeks his first victory. His previous top-3 finishes came at Homestead (third), Talladega (second), Pocono (second) and Kentucky (third) – so the finishes Saturday and Sunday showed the team can get it done on the short tracks.
Justin Allagier and Chase Briscoe won the races over the weekend. Allgaier’s win Saturday came a week after a rare heated conversation following the Daytona road-course race with AJ Allmendinger, where Allmendinger admitted a mistake and cracked that he has seen Allgaier make many mistakes.
“When I left Daytona, other than social media haters, I had such a better outlook on where I was at, and really why I love this sport and why I go to the race track week-in and week-out,” Allgaier said.
Trucks: Zane Smith earns second victory
Zane Smith captured his second victory of the season, as he outdueled GMS Racing teammate Brett Moffitt for the win. The key was a late-race restart where Smith got a much better jump than earlier in the race.
“I knew that was going to be the winning move,” Smith said. “I haven’t been good at restarts this year.”
On The Air
Friday
Xfinity Wawa 250 (Daytona), 7:30 p.m., NBCSN
Saturday
Cup Coke Zero Sugar 400 (Daytona), 7:30 p.m., NBC
Sunday
Gander RV Trucks Gateway 200, noon, FS1
Stat of the Day
Kevin Harvick has tied Kyle Busch for ninth in all-time Cup wins with 56.
Social Spotlight
They Said It
“I screwed up.” – Joey Logano on the wreck early in the second Dover race
