NASCAR Cup Series

Elimination scenarios for Martinsville: Which two drivers will make Championship 4?

Published Oct. 23, 2023 2:02 p.m. ET

With 500 tense laps around Martinsville Speedway — NASCAR's shortest oval at 0.526 miles in length — in their sights, here is a breakdown and outlook for the drivers in the Round of 8 as they try to qualify for the Championship 4. The four drivers who advance will be the ones eligible for the championship at the season finale Nov. 5 at Phoenix Raceway.

The four drivers winless in the Round of 8 (NASCAR's version of a semifinal round) and with the fewest points will be eliminated.

Feeling Happy

These two drivers have no worries as they already have qualified for the Championship 4 thanks to wins earlier in the round, which started Oct. 8 at Las Vegas and then to Homestead.

Christopher Bell (win at Homestead)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota

Bell won at Martinsville last year in walk-off fashion to advance to the Championship 4. He won't need another moment such as that one this weekend — he'll just want it to come at Phoenix as he now has a championship berth for the second consecutive season.

Kyle Larson (win at Las Vegas)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet

Larson won at Martinsville in April, so he should feel good going there and building some momentum into Phoenix. The 2021 Cup champion lost all the momentum after the win at Las Vegas with his crash into the sand barrels at the entry to pit road Sunday at Homestead.

Kyle Larson explains what happened in his accident with Ryan Blaney at Homestead

Feeling Good

This driver feels good that if he just runs a clean race at Martinsville, barring anything too crazy, he should advance.

William Byron (+30 on 5th)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet

Byron needs 36 points to clinch a spot in the next round no matter what anyone else does. In 11 starts at the track, he has earned at least 36 points four times, including three of his last five races there. He has one victory (April 2022) and six top-10s at Martinsville. What does have Byron a little concerned? He was 23rd at Martinsville and earned just one stage point at the track in the spring.

Feeling Hopeful

This driver enters with a cushion but not a big enough one, especially if one of the four drivers below him wins at Martinsville.

Ryan Blaney (+10 on 5th)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford

Blaney ran well at Martinsville a year ago when trying to advance as he finished third and earned 43 points but didn't make the cut. If he does that again, he will make it, as long as no other driver beneath him wins the race. He has scored at least 42 points in seven of his last nine starts at Martinsville. If he has a day like he had in the spring where he finished 12th with 30 points, he could be in jeopardy of having to wait another year to make his first Championship 4.

Ryan Blaney discusses his disappointing day at Homestead

Feeling Nervous

This driver has to make up ground at Martinsville. Certainly not an impossible task but a formidable one.

Tyler Reddick (-10 on 4th)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota

Reddick has just one top-10 finish — an eighth in April 2021 — at Martinsville. But does that tell the whole story? He was third in the first stage and fourth in the second stage at Martinsville in April but finished 22nd. A year ago in this race, he had to get out of the car after not feeling well. He will need his best race ever at Martinsville to advance.

Feeling Resigned

These two drivers have had great seasons but will need either a win at Martinsville or have a solid race with others having trouble. Both are possible but somewhat longshots.

Martin Truex Jr. (-17 on 4th)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota

Truex has three career victories at Martinsville, winning them in a span of four races from 2019-2021. In the Next Gen era, he has finishes of 22nd, 20th and third. That third came in the spring but he didn't lead a lap and still scored "only" 34 points. He knows he has a chance, but the way his playoffs have gone with just one top-15 finish, he can't be all that confident.

Denny Hamlin (-17 on 4th)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota

Hamlin has five victories at Martinsville, but the last one came in 2015. He has led 583 laps at the track in his last five starts, and he has scored at least 44 points in seven of his last 10 starts at Martinsville. So he knows he can go there and have a solid race. He just would potentially need at least one or two of the drivers he's battling with to have an off day.

Will Denny Hamlin and/or Martin Truex Jr. make the Championship 4?

Feeling Desperate

This driver faces, for all intents and purposes, a must-win situation at Martinsville:

Chris Buescher (-43 on 4th)
RFK Racing No. 17 Ford

Buescher had two career victories going into this season. So his three wins this year have shown that Buescher is used to making career moments in 2023. He'll need to have another one Sunday. He has just one top-10 in 16 Martinsville starts, and that was a ninth in October 2021. He has never led a lap at the track.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including the past 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass, and sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR Newsletter with Bob Pockrass.