Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
There are few catchers in MLB that are two-way threats.
I had the opportunity this week to participate in a conference call with Keith Law of ESPN regarding his top 100 MLB prospect list and MLB organizational rankings. He answered a number of questions, and one of the ones I presented brought about an interesting look at the catching position in baseball.
First, the question and answer that prompted this:
Q. (…looking around the league, there’s) not an elite prospect at that position. (Then) you look around the majors, there are not a lot of elite catchers on offensive and defensive end. Is that a part of where the game is going or is that just a blip in the radar right now, do you think? Curious on your thoughts at that particular position.
KEITH LAW: I think you’re seeing an industry adjustment on what we expect of catchers. Now in the last two years, I am hearing more discussion, even from scouts, who are not necessarily using the data, certainly not drawing (from) the data, discussing receiving and framing in ways that were simply not a discussion five years ago.So what’s happening is the Ryan Doumit(s) of the world, the worst framers ever, they are just not going to catch. They might end up catching in the minors. But they are not going to be considered long term catchers, they are not going to end up high on my rankings because teams will say, he’s a terrible framer. He’s not going to stay back there.
The bar has gone up now that we can actually measure this stuff, and what that also means is you’re going to get some really good framers that just don’t hit as much, and teams are going to be happy with that, because they are still getting value. They are just simply not getting the offensive production.
And if you look at the three or four catchers on my list this year on the top 100, there’s not much elite offense coming from that position. The guys back there who tend to have the power have often been the bigger guys who turns out are not that great at framing. Wieters being a great example. He’s just a terrible framing catcher and has been one for most of his career and that type of catcher, we just may not see much of him going forward at all.
My focus is frequently on minor league prospects for CTTP, but I’m also a big-time fantasy baseball fan, and the recent induction of Ivan Rodriguez to the Hall of Fame had me thinking back to the 1990s through early 2000s of fantasy baseball where the catching position was one of the more deep positions in the game, and you could have your pick of guys like Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Javy Lopez, Jason Kendall, Todd Hundley, Mike Stanley, Jorge Posada, Charles Johnson, Chris Hoiles, and many, many more.
The interesting thing was that there were plenty of plodders behind the plate who could just muscle a ball and that was the only reason they were tolerated, but you also had plenty of guys like Rodriguez and Charles Johnson that were elite on both sides. That is extremely rare now, but let’s take a look at just how rare…
In the Majors
To begin with, only eight catchers even qualified for the batting title in 2016. That’s a very normal number, as between eight and 10 have been qualified the last five years.
I lowered the number to those with 300 plate appearances to get more participants in this look. That brought the number to 24 catchers in 2016 that had over 300 plate appearances.
Out of those 24, only eight returned positive numbers in Fangraphs’ offensive runs above replacement number, though only one – Jonathan Lucroy – produced double digits in value.
This was completely shifted defensively, as out of the 24, 21 provided positive defensive runs, and six catchers produced double digits in value, led by Salvador Perez with 14.7.
Of all 24, only Lucroy, Buster Posey, J.T. Realmuto, Wilson Ramos, Yasmani Grandal, and Yadier Molina produced positive value on both offense and defense.
The large number difference in those who were defensive contributors of the 24 versus the offensive contributors is quite telling in the shift, but it should be notable to take a look in the minor leagues as well.
Let’s take a look at some of the top minor league catching prospects…
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Down on the Farm
Baseball Prospectus produces catching metrics, some of which are available to subscribers only, but they are considered some of the best in the business currently.
While all metrics have some flaws, BP’s framing runs, blocking runs, and throwing runs all measure a catcher’s contributions above average in those areas, and they put that together in a number that they tag FRAA. They adjust that number for an average catcher based on playing time, and that is the number I’ll be focusing on as provided, as some of the numbers aren’t measured at certain levels (blocking/framing are not measured in A-ball, for instance, but you do get framing numbers at AA and AAA).
There have been a few top prospect lists released thus far. I released my top 125 in early January. Keith Law released his top 100 at the end of January, and MLB Pipeline released their list the following week.
Just going from those lists, there are a few catchers receiving national notice, and let’s look at them:
Francisco Mejia, Cleveland Indians system (#18 Keith Law, #40 MLB Pipeline, #36 Call to the Pen), had an historic hitting streak this summer, and that got him a lot of notice, but he was known in many circles already for his incredible arm. He put forth a 1.4 throwing runs rating this year in the only statistic measured for him, but he also has a tremendous defensive reputation overall.
Carson Kelly, St. Louis Cardinals system (#51 Law, #39 MLB, #94 CTTP), is a converted infielder who is still working on his catching skills. The guys at MLB have some big time love for him, and Law has spoken about his steps forward being positive, though he still has some major work to do in the non-measurable things of the game. Kelly is one of the hardest-working catching prospects in the minor leagues, however. He still has some work to do on his framing, but he did receive a positive rating on it this season in AAA.
Jorge Alfaro, Philadelphia Phillies system (#46 Law, #72 MLB, #83 CTTP), may be the guy who has the most raw skills of any catcher in the minors, but he’s also had those raw skills now for years. Alfaro is a guy who can hit the ball out of the building, but in six years hasn’t figured out how to take a walk. His catching is similar. He did get huge notice for his improvement in framing this year in AAA, and I was impressed by this, but his calling card has always been his incredible arm while his blocking has been an issue. In his short time in the majors this year, he showed rough enough to receive a -0.6 rating in blocking runs, for example.
Chance Sisco, Baltimore Orioles system (#69 Law, #99 MLB, #95 CTTP), is definitely a bat-first guy at the position, and while he’s made some strides defensively, he’s a guy that Law is highlighting in his comments. He was a combined -9.5 adjusted FRAA in 2016 between two levels. That said, the Orioles lived with Matt Wieters, who hasn’t posted a positive adjusted FRAA since 2013 and just signed Welington Castillo, who has never posted a positive adjusted FRAA in his entire career, so it’s quite likely that Sisco is in the right organization to buck what is becoming conventional thinking in the importance of catcher defense.
More from Call to the Pen
Zack Collins, Chicago White Sox system (#95 Law, #81 MLB, #60 CTTP), was a guy who saw his draft stock both rise and fall depending on teams’ views of him as a catcher. The White Sox are working hard to keep him behind the plate, and his work in the Arizona Fall League before and after games with coaches was noted heavily by scouts, and I’ll always give guys credit for effort. He did post a negative rating in his throwing runs metric, which was the only thing measured. Collins has received note for his improved framing ability, and he should be at levels in 2017 that will allow us to see if there was true growth there.
Baseball Prospectus’ minor league numbers reveal some interesting players to watch based on their excellence defensively.
Cameron Gallagher is an older prospect at 24 who very well may end up an organization player, but in his first season at AA in 2016, he not only showed up with his best offensive season (.259/.348/.359 with solid plate discipline), he also had the best adjusted FRAA in the minor leagues due to his excellence in framing and throwing out runners.
John Ryan Murphy was acquired by the Minnesota Twins from the New York Yankees in the 2015-2016 offseason in exchange for former top prospect Aaron Hicks. He spent most of the year in AAA, and his work with the bat was not very good at all, but defensively, he posted a framing runs number at AAA that only two major league catchers could match or exceed with 2,000 more chances to do such.
Austin Barnes has been a guy that Dodgers fans have been waiting on for a number of years, and the converted infielder has shown he’s able to handle AAA with solid seasons there the past two years, but he’s stuck behind one of the best in the league in Grandal. In 2016, Barnes posted an overall 18.7 adjusted FRAA number on the strength of 19.1 framing runs saved.
Bruce Maxwell is another “older” prospect at 26 who got his first taste of the major leagues in 2016. His numbers in the PCL hide a very average offensive approach, but he should be able to be a guy who doesn’t necessarily hurt his team offensively, and defensively, he posted positive numbers in framing and throwing in AAA.
Once a top draft pick, Mike Zunino was sent to the minors to refine his game last season, both offensively and defensively. Offensively, he certainly drew more walks, but his approach didn’t seem to change much at the big league level. Behind the plate, however, while he had been a solid framer before, he received across the board positive ratings in both the major and minor leagues in BP’s defensive metrics.
