Major League Baseball

Just How Many Homers Will Kyle Schwarber Hit on New Phillies Contract?

Published Dec. 10, 2025 2:59 p.m. ET

Just what can Kyle Schwarber accomplish with five more years in the Phillies lineup?

Kyle Schwarber will stick with the Phillies through 2030, after agreeing to a five-year, $150 million contract at the winter meetings. It will end up being the team he spends the most time on in his career, as he’s already at four years with Philly and will eclipse the six he spent with the Cubs before the middle of the contract hits.

With the kind of power that Schwarber has — power he has continued to display as he enters his mid-30s — it’s fair to wonder if he’s going to start showing up on any of the Phillies’ all-time leaderboards. The short answer: yes. The longer answer is below.

Schwarber will be 33 in 2026, after hitting a career-high 56 dingers last summer. Expecting him to hit the half-century mark every year would be a bit much even if he were a decade younger, but Schwarber has averaged 43.8 homers per season since he first left the Cubs back in 2021. In that five-year stretch, Schwarber has gone yard 219 times — that’s good enough for third in MLB, behind just Aaron Judge (249) and Shohei Ohtani (233). This trio are the only players with over 200 bombs over the last five years.

The most optimistic — and maybe not realistic — expectation would be for Schwarber to just keep it going for another five years. If he were to do that, he would have 438 long balls in a 10-year stretch. A more conservative — and safer — expectation would be 80% of that, or, 175 home runs over a five-year stretch. That would be 35 home runs per year, which builds in some room for Schwarber to continue to crush the baseball at the level he has in his late-20s and early-30s, but also leaves room for those numbers to drift closer to 30 per year as his offense diminishes.

Consider that a range of possibilities, then see where Schwarber already is. He has swatted 187 homers with the Phillies in four years, which puts him 12th in franchise history behind Bobby Abreu (195). Recently inducted Hall of Famer Dick Allen sits in 10th with 204 — Schwarber could pass him before the summer heat sets in.

Here is the full top 10 for the Phillies:

10. Dick Allen, 204
9. Jimmy Rollins, 216
8. Cy Williams, 217
7. Greg Luzinski, 223
6. Chase Utley, 233
5. Chuck Klein, 243
4. Pat Burrell, 251
3. Del Ennis, 259
2. Ryan Howard, 382
1. Mike Schdmidt, 548

Even at the most optimistic projection for Schwarber’s 2026 through 2030 seasons, passing Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt just isn’t in the cards — Schwarber is 361 dingers behind Philly's all-time leader. He could get all the way up to second place, however: Howard’s 382 is just 195 ahead of Schwarber, which wouldn’t even require the best-case scenario estimate to pull off.

Does Schwarber have another 361 homers in his career? Does he have them for the Phillies, specifically? These are good questions, but they are for whatever contract comes after this new one. It should be said that it’s not an impossibility, however — Schwarber would just have to age exceptionally well for it to happen.

With that bigger picture in mind, though, consider where Schwarber would be on the all-time list not just for the Phillies, but MLB, with another five years of crushing baseballs. He currently ranks 111th in MLB history with 340 career long balls, and it won’t take him very long to make his way into double-digit territory. Nolan Arenado is currently No. 100 on that list with 353 homers, tied with Torii Hunter until he hits another and passes the retired outfielder for good. Even if Schwarber hit just 35 homers in 2026 — remember, 175 split across five seasons is an average of 35 per year — that would put him at 375 for his career, or the 81st-most in history. Right ahead of Rocky Colavito and his 374, and directly behind Carlton Fisk and his 376.

Sticking with the 175 over five years estimate, Schwarber would wrap his new deal with the Phillies with 515 career dingers. That would make him just the 29th player to ever reach the 500-homer mark, and he would already be in the top 25 at No. 23, ahead of Ernie Banks (512) but behind Ted Williams, Frank Thomas and Willie McCovey, all of whom hit 521.

And if you go with the higher-end estimate, where Schwarber repeats his previous five seasons? That would have him at 559, or 15th all-time, ahead of Manny Ramirez (555) but behind Reggie Jackson (563).

Regardless of whether Schwarber is great or great with the Phillies, it should be obvious that he’s in line to be a historically significant power hitter. His power has only grown as he's aged, and while that won’t be the case forever, that his experience has fueled his performance offensively should at least give you some confidence that he can keep it going for a while yet. Just how long is the question, but barring a complete, unexpected collapse, Schwarber’s new deal means some level of history will be closer with every moonshot.

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