Three Burning Fantasy Basketball Questions (Mar. 9)
Every week, D.J. Foster will tackle three burning questions in the Fantasy Basketball world. Topics for today: Players to never draft again, favorable fantasy playoff schedules and ranking the rookie keepers for next year.
1. Which players should you never draft again?
Every year around this time, it's important to make a "Do Not Draft" list for next year. That's because the hatred is fresh, and it's amazing what you'll talk yourself into again after a long offseason.
There are a few players around the league that I'm never touching in a draft again...unless they fall four or five rounds below their ADP. I'll always end a grudge to get an extreme value, but by no means will I be looking to draft these players next season.
Bradley Beal, SG, WAS: He's a great three-point shooter, and he's flashed the potential to be much more than that. The problem is, he'll never be healthy. He's missed a bunch of time in his four-year career with all kinds of different injuries, and you have to wonder if he's just destined to be the next Eric Gordon, meaning that some team will pay him huge money only to be disappointed when he gives you half a season. I like Beal's game, but he doesn't contribute in other categories enough or stay on the court enough for me to draft him again.
Dwight Howard, C, HOU: Punting free throws is a more viable strategy than ever, but it's still not an ideal plan on draft day. Howard provides great name value in middle rounds, but his back simply can't hold up over a full season anymore. His scoring and blocks are down, and he'll still kill you at the line (51.5 percent on 7.5 attempts). The juice used to be worth the squeeze, but given his declining health and production, that isn't the case anymore.
Michael Carter-Williams, PG, MIL: You hate to quit on a guy in just his third season, but MCW just can't shoot the ball. He'll silently hurt you in a ton of categories, including throw percentage (65.4 percent), turnovers (2.8 a game), and threes (0.3 a game). Add in the durability concerns and the missed games, and I'd rather take a flier on someone else who didn't pad their stats and reputation on a terrible team like Carter-Williams did with Philadelphia. It wouldn't shock me if he's not a starting point guard going forward.
2. Which teams have the most favorable fantasy playoff schedules?
The amount of games a team plays in the last few weeks is something you just can't ignore down the stretch. You have to adjust your view of some players and be ready to accept the fact that some garbage time role players can become fantasy studs with enough opportunity.
In the final two weeks of the season, the Knicks, Blazers and Nuggets only play four total games. If you have role players on any of those teams (guys like Arron Afflalo, Gary Harris, Mason Plumlee, etc.) it's probably time to start making plans to look elsewhere.
The Hornets, Clippers, Lakers, Heat, Pelicans, Spurs and Raptors all play six games total over the final two weeks. Some of those teams may be resting players, particularly San Antonio and Toronto. You should keep an eye on the playoff races for the Clippers and Heat, who might be looking to secure better seeding as the season winds down.
A team like Charlotte could provide a few interesting fantasy producers. Monitor the injury situations there closely, as someone like Jeremy Lin or Cody Zeller could become very useful if the Hornets decide to rest Kemba Walker or Al Jefferson.
Increasing your games played from four to six could be the difference between winning and losing down the stretch. Plan carefully.
3. How would you rank the rookie class for keeper purposes?
This is an extraordinary rookie class. There's star talent at the top, and really good depth as well. Let's take a look at the top-10 rookie keepers going into next season:
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
2. Kristaps Porzingis
3. D'Angelo Russell
4. Myles Turner
5. Jahlil Okafor
6. Emmanuel Mudiay
7. Devin Booker
8. Stanley Johnson
9. Justise Winslow
10. Mario Hezonja
Towns looks like a super-charged version of Al Horford. He'll contribute big numbers in every category, and won't hurt you anywhere. He's a must-keep.
Porzingis should be a roto king in the next few years. That shooting touch will lead to sky-high percentages, and he'll give you blocked shots because of his length as well. He provides a combination of stats that's nearly impossible to find.
D'Angelo Russell has made a late charge, and he's flashed his big time potential. Threes, assists and points are going to start pouring in next year, especially on a team that will look to him as the first scoring option.
I'm higher on Myles Turner than I am on Okafor. He's a better shotblocker and shooter, which should translate to better roto success. Okafor could end up performing like Al Jefferson, but I'm worried about his defense and passing.
After the top-5, things get tricky. Mudiay has the most fantasy potential, but his turnovers and shooting were brutal this year. I could understand not keeping him, but there's big counting stat potential going forward. Johnson and Winslow feel mostly interchangeable, but I think Johnson is a little more aggressive as a scorer. Booker needs to start producing in other areas, but the kid can really shoot and he's so young. Hezonja is the major sleeper. If he can get consistent playing time, he could really light up the scoreboard.
Make sure to check back on Monday for waiver wire suggestions!
