Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds, Picks for College Football Week 5

The Wisconsin Badgers face the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday in a Week 5 college football matchup on BTN.

The Badgers are 3-1 for the first time since 2023 after knocking off then-No. 13 Penn State. On the road at Beaver Stadium, head coach Luke Fickell’s team erased a 17-point deficit despite quarterback Colton Joseph throwing three interceptions. 

Wisconsin held Penn State to three points in the second half and scored the final 14 points of the game in the fourth quarter. Joseph connected with tight end Jacob Harris for a 72-yard touchdown to put the Badgers ahead with one minute remaining, and the defense shut the door on the Nittany Lions’ comeback hopes.

Michigan State couldn’t pull off a similar comeback against Nebraska last week. The Spartans fell behind by 14 points early and never got closer than seven the rest of the way. 

For the second straight game, quarterback Alessio Milivojevic threw an interception and was sacked at least four times. He has been sacked 14 times this season, tied for the most in the country. After being picked to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten, the Spartans are already 0-1 in conference play, and the schedule only gets tougher from here.

Let’s take a look at the odds for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Oct. 3.

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

Moneyline

• Wisconsin: -420 (bet $10 to win $12.38 total)
• Michigan State: +320 (bet $10 to win $42.00 total)

Spread 

• Wisconsin -9.5: -104 (bet $10 to win $19.62 total)
• Michigan State +9.5: -118 (bet $10 to win $18.47 total)

Over/Under

• Over 43.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
• Under 43.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

From FOX Sports Research:

Over the last two games, Michigan State has been outscored 58-23, scoring just three touchdowns while allowing nine sacks and committing five turnovers.

Through four games, the Spartans rank last in the Big Ten in total yards per game, passing yards per game and scoring. It hasn’t been the offensive start head coach Pat Fitzgerald hoped for. Michigan State’s defense sits around the middle of the pack in the major categories, but that unit can only keep the Spartans in games for so long.

Wisconsin is riding high after its highest-ranked upset since 2021, but the Badgers have struggled offensively, too. They rank in the bottom half of the conference in every major offensive category, while their defense also sits around the middle of the pack.

The gap between Wisconsin’s 3-1 record and Michigan State’s 2-2 mark comes down to a few key plays that have gone the Badgers way. With both offenses struggling and defenses capable of holding their ground, expect a low-scoring matchup.

Take the under at 43.5.

How to Watch Michigan State vs. Nebraska

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 3rd, 2026
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
• TV: BTN
• Stream: Watch 3 days free on FOX One, FOXSports.com, FOX Sports App
• Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin