College Football

Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction, Odds, Picks for Mountain West Championship

Published Dec. 5, 2025 11:05 a.m. ET

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

In this year's MWC Championship Game the Boise State Broncos are the favorites, but by less than a touchdown (-5.5) over the UNLV Rebels. Albertsons Stadium will host the matchup on December 5, 2025, starting at 8 p.m. ET on FOX. An over/under of 58.5 is set for the game.

Against the Utah State Aggies in their most recent contest, the Broncos won 25-24. The Rebels beat the Nevada Wolf Pack, 42-17, in their most recent contest.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Boise State vs. UNLV Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, December 5, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET
Location: Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho
TV: FOX
Streaming: FOXSports.com, FOX Sports App and FOX One (Try free for 7 days)

Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction & Pick

Boise State heads into the Mountain West Championship Game looking ready to take down UNLV at Allegiant Stadium.

Boise State averages 30.8 points and has held opponents to 23.2, giving the Broncos one of the most balanced profiles in the conference. UNLV has been electric on offense with 37.2 points per game, but its defense has struggled by allowing 28.1. That contrast sets up a strength-on-strength matchup that should shape the night.

The Broncos also hold the recent edge in this series with wins in the past four meetings at the FBS level. Maddux Madsen has thrown for 1,994 yards and 15 touchdowns, giving Boise State stability at quarterback. Anthony Colandrea has been a standout for UNLV with 3,050 yards and 22 touchdowns through the air.

Pick ATS: UNLV (+5.5)
Pick OU: Over (58.5)
Prediction: Boise State 32, UNLV 27

Boise State vs. UNLV Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Broncos 32, Rebels 26.
The Broncos have a 68.2% chance to win this meeting based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Rebels hold a 36.2% implied probability.
Boise State has compiled a 7-4-1 ATS record so far this year.
UNLV has covered seven times in 12 games with a spread this season.

Boise State vs. UNLV: Head-to-Head

Over their last four meetings, Boise State has put up four wins against UNLV.
The Broncos have a 4-0 record ATS in those games, while the two teams have gone over the point total on two occasions.
UNLV has been outpaced by 68 points in its last four tilts against Boise State.

Boise State vs. UNLV: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Boise State	UNLV
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	30.8 (41)	37.2 (12)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	23.2 (55)	28.1 (89)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	16 (78)	14 (53)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	21 (14)	21 (14)

Boise State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Dylan Riley	RB	1,016 YDS / 10 TD / 84.7 YPG / 6.2 YPC 14 REC / 140 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 14 REC YPG
Maddux Madsen	QB	1,994 YDS (59.8%) / 15 TD / 7 INT 70 RUSH YDS / 3 RUSH TD / 7.8 RUSH YPG
Sire Gaines	RB	731 YDS / 7 TD / 60.9 YPG / 5.1 YPC 10 REC / 67 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 8.4 REC YPG
Malik Sherrod	RB	395 YDS / 4 TD / 32.9 YPG / 5 YPC 24 REC / 184 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 18.4 REC YPG
Ty Benefield	DB	86 TKL / 6 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD
Jeremiah Earby	DB	53 TKL / 1 TFL / 0.5 SACK / 4 INT
Marco Notarainni	LB	61 TKL / 3 TFL / 1.5 SACK
Jayden Virgin	DL	48 TKL / 6 TFL / 3 SACK

UNLV 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Anthony Colandrea	QB	3,050 YDS (68.2%) / 22 TD / 8 INT 555 RUSH YDS / 8 RUSH TD / 46.3 RUSH YPG
Jai'Den Thomas	RB	944 YDS / 12 TD / 85.8 YPG / 7.4 YPC 34 REC / 207 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 18.8 REC YPG
Jaden Bradley	WR	51 REC / 834 YDS / 4 TD / 69.5 YPG
Keyvone Lee	RB	375 YDS / 6 TD / 31.3 YPG / 4.2 YPC 17 REC / 144 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 20.6 REC YPG
Marsel McDuffie	LB	80 TKL / 4 TFL / 2 SACK / 2 INT
Jaheem Joseph	DB	52 TKL / 5 TFL / 3.5 SACK
Aamaris Brown	DB	41 TKL / 4 TFL / 3.5 SACK / 4 INT
Jake Pope	DB	57 TKL / 2 TFL / 1.5 SACK / 1 INT