2025-26 Final Four Betting Report: Public Split on Michigan-Arizona

Final Four odds feature a semifinal showdown that, to hear oddsmakers tell it, is happening one round too early.

Michigan and Arizona both spent time at No. 1 in the AP poll this season. Both have been favored at various junctures in March Madness futures odds. Both are No. 1 seeds rolling through the NCAA Tournament.

"Michigan vs. Arizona is probably the best game on the docket all year, on paper. It’s kind of a shame that it’s not the last game," Caesars Sports head of college basketball trading Rich Zanco said.

Two days before tipoff, Zanco helps break down Final Four betting, and we check in on major wagers and potential big payouts. Plus, we’re monitoring a potential million-dollar-or-more bet on Illinois from Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale.

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Nightcap of No. 1s

Michigan vs. Arizona is the second game of Saturday’s Final Four docket, tipping off at 8:49 p.m. ET.

Arizona is 36-2 straight up (SU) and a respectable 24-14 against the spread (ATS), covering the number a money-making 63.2% of the time. Michigan is 35-3 SU but a less-than-satisfactory 18-20 ATS.

However, the Wolverines have scored 90 points or more in all four NCAA Tournament games thus far. Michigan also covered in its last three games, including Sunday’s 95-62 rout of 6-seed Tennessee as an 8.5-point favorite.

And after opening as a 1-point underdog, Michigan moved to a 1.5-point favorite by Monday at Caesars.

"Michigan has gotten bet up a little bit. But this is a two-way game," Zanco said. "The public is on both sides. It’s a big matchup with a small spread, so you’re gonna have action on both teams."

So Caesars might not have a clear preference, on the game itself or in the championship futures market.

"We’re in a good position on this side of the bracket, with Arizona and Michigan," Zanco said. "But we’ll need the Under on Saturday night."

The total opened at 157 and went to 157.5 in short order Sunday, with no movement since. But the public betting masses will assuredly be on the Over, as they always are.

Pros vs. Joes

No. 3 seed Illinois (28-8 SU/20-18 ATS) meets No. 2 seed UConn (33-5 SU/16-22 ATS) in the first semifinal, at 6:09 p.m. ET Saturday.

The Huskies are coming off their incredible 73-72 comeback win over 1-seed Duke on Sunday. That’s going to linger in the minds of the public betting masses, who often bet off what they last saw.

But sharp bettors are looking at the short favorite so far, likely making this a Pros vs. Joes battle among bettors. Illinois has bounced between -1.5 and -2.5 a few times this week at Caesars. 

As of Thursday afternoon, the Fighting Illini are -1.5 (-115).

"The professional money is on Illinois. They’ve been on Illinois all year," Zanco said. "I anticipate the betting public will come in on UConn. The public did that last weekend vs. Duke, and even some of the sharps were on UConn, as well."

Usually, oddsmakers are on the same side as the sharp bettors. But when factoring championship futures into the Illinois-UConn matchup, Zanco said that might not be the case on Saturday.

"Illinois is the one team in the futures market that we don’t do well to," he said. "So we’re rooting for UConn a little bit."

McIngvale’s Millions

Houston furniture magnate Jim McIngvale is no stranger to major wagers on March Madness futures odds. In particular, he likes to bet on his beloved Houston Cougars.

But the Cougars lost to Illinois 65-55 in the Sweet 16, which made McIngvale’s 2026 strategy prove even more prescient.

Pre-NCAA Tournament, McIngvale said: "I don’t know which team I’m gambling on this year. I’m gonna run a promotion that says the team closest geographically to Houston that gets in the Final Four will be the team."

In this case, the Illinois campus is the closest to Houston, at 951 miles. Yep, even closer than Houston is to Arizona’s Tucson campus (1,066 miles).

However, as of Thursday evening, McIngvale hasn’t revealed his bet.

For those unfamiliar, there are almost always two elements to McIngvale’s wagers: the bet itself and the corresponding promotion for his furniture store.

The bet is a hedge against the promotion. In this instance, customers who purchase a mattress set of $4,000 or more will get it free, if the Final Four team closest to Houston wins the title.

It’s a win-win for Mattress Mack or at least a break-even proposition: If his bet wins, he pockets that cash to cover the losses from the bedding purchases. If his bet loses, then his store pockets the mattress set profits.

Major Coin on UConn

The Final Four is certainly familiar territory for UConn, which won back-to-back championships in 2023 and 2024. If the Huskies make it three titles in four years, then a DraftKings Sportsbook customer will turn a seven-figure profit.

Some time ago, well before the NCAA Tournament began, a high-roller put a healthy $77,000 on UConn +1300 to win it all.

Two more wins, and that $77,000 bet will net just over $1 million (total payout $1.078 million).

There are also some noteworthy bets involving Arizona, including a $500 three-leg parlay that tied the College Football Playoff champion to the Super Bowl and March Madness.

Add up those odds, and you’ve got +32700, or in easier-to-digest terms, 327/1.

Indiana took care of Leg 1 when it beat Miami 27-21 in the CFP final on Jan. 19. Then the Seahawks dispatched the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl 60 on Feb. 8.

If Arizona finishes it off by cutting down the nets on Monday night, then that $500 bet becomes $164,000. That certainly makes a months-long wait well worth it.

Finally, late in the regular season, a BetMGM customer put $50,000 on Arizona +450 to win the title. That bet stands to profit $225,000 (total payout $275,000), if the Wildcats go the distance.