Patriots vs. Panthers 2025 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Sep 28

Updated Sep. 28, 2025 12:43 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The New England Patriots (1-2) are considered favorites (-4.5) according to the oddsmakers ahead of their game versus the Carolina Panthers (1-2) on September 28, 2025, starting at 1 p.m. ET, airing on FOX. The predicted point total for the game is 42.5.

Keep up with the 2025 NFL season on FOX Sports.

Micah Parsons & Packers head to Dallas, Chiefs Face Ravens in pivotal matchup | FOX NFL Kickoff

The "FOX NFL Sunday" crew broke down whether this matchup is a make-or-break moment for the Kansas City Chiefs or Baltimore Ravens, with the loser set to fall to 1-3 on the season. They also analyzed Micah Parsons' return to Dallas as the Green Bay Packers come to town.

Patriots vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Lines

Patriots vs Panthers Betting Information updated as of September 28, 2025, 12:33 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Patriots	-4.5	-121	-109	42.5	-112	-108

Patriots vs. Panthers Prediction & Pick

Pick ATS: Patriots (-4.5)
Pick OU: Over (42.5)
Prediction: Patriots 26 - Panthers 20

How to Watch New England vs. Carolina

Game date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: Watch on FOX
Streaming: FOXSports.com, FOX Sports App and FOX One (Try free for 7 days)

Patriots vs. Panthers Recent Matchups

The last two times Carolina and New England have played, the two teams share the same 1-1 record.
In their last two head-to-head matchups, New England has compiled 54 points against Carolina, while giving up only 39 points.

New England Betting Info

New England has covered the spread once this year.
New England games this year have gone over the total in one out of three opportunities (33.3%).
The Patriots have been moneyline favorites one other time this season, a game they lost.
Based on this game's moneyline, the Patriots' implied win probability is 72.6%.

Patriots Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	245.7 (737)	7
Rush yards	100.3 (301)	20
Points scored	20.0 (60)	21
Pass yards against	256.3 (769)	30
Rush yards against	60.3 (181)	2
Points allowed	22.7 (68)	18

New England's Key Players

Offense

Drake Maye ranks sixth in the NFL with 785 passing yards in three games this year, averaging 261.7 per game with a 72.6% completion percentage and five touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) against two interceptions.
In addition to his passing statistics, Maye also has 87 rushing yards (first on the Patriots), with one rushing touchdown.
Hunter Henry's 165 receiving yards this season have come from 22 targets and 13 receptions. He's averaging 55 receiving yards and 4.3 catches per game, with two receiving touchdowns (seventh in the NFL).
In the passing game, Kayshon Boutte, has racked up 147 receiving yards and one touchdown after catching nine balls on 12 targets. Per game, he's averaging 49 yards and three receptions in three games.
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 87 yards without a TD on the ground (29 yards per game in three games).
He has added 10 catches (on 11 targets) for 138 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He's averaging 46 receiving yards and 3.3 receptions per game.

Defense

Over on defense, Harold Landry has 16 tackles, four TFL, and 3.5 sacks in 2025.
Robert Spillane has intercepted one pass (eighth in the NFL) and has added 21 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and two passes defended.
Jaylinn Hawkins has put up one interception (eighth in the NFL) and added 16 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and one pass defended.
Milton Williams has eight tackles, five TFL, and two sacks.

Carolina Betting Info

Carolina is 2-1-0 against the spread this year.
The Panthers have been underdogs by 4.5 points or more once this year and covered the spread.
Carolina games have gone over the total once this season.
The Panthers have won one of the three games they've played as underdogs this season.
The implied probability of a win by the Panthers based on the moneyline is 31.7%.

Panthers Stats

Stat	Average (Total)	Rank
Pass yards	186.3 (559)	23
Rush yards	90.7 (272)	25
Points scored	20.7 (62)	20
Pass yards against	196.7 (590)	12
Rush yards against	137.7 (413)	25
Points allowed	17.7 (53)	7

Carolina's Key Players

Offense

Bryce Young has passed for 603 yards this year, with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He is completing 60.5% of his passes while averaging 201 yards per game and 5.3 per attempt.
He's added 50 yards on the ground (third on the Panthers), while scoring one rushing touchdown. He's averaging 16.7 yards per game and 5.6 per attempt.
Chuba Hubbard averages 56 rushing yards per game through three games (168 total yards), but is seeking his first rushing touchdown.
Hubbard also has 10 catches for 74 yards (third on the Panthers), with two receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 14 times and averages 24.7 yards per game.
Through three games played this season, Tetairoa McMillan has 14 catches (4.7 receptions per game on nine targets per game) for 216 yards, but no receiving touchdowns.
Hunter Renfrow has been targeted 19 times, resulting in 11 catches for 65 yards (seventh in the NFL).

Defense

Tre'von Moehrig's 2025 effort includes 26 tackles and one TFL in three games. He leads the Panthers in tackles.
Christian Rozeboom has 24 tackles.
Mike Jackson Sr. has 11 tackles, one TFL, and one interception in the 2025 season. He is fourth on the Panthers in tackles.
Derrick Brown's season stats include nine tackles through three games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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