Falcons vs. Commanders 2025 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Sep 28

The Atlanta Falcons (1-2) are considered favorites (-2.5) according to the bookmakers ahead of their game against the Washington Commanders (2-1) on September 28, 2025, starting at 1 p.m. ET, airing on CBS. An over/under of 43.5 points has been set for the matchup.

Keep up with the 2025 NFL season on FOX Sports.

Falcons vs. Panthers: Alex Faust & Matt Millen recap Panthers' dominant win vs. Falcons | NFL on FOX

Alex Faust & Matt Millen recapped the Carolina Panthers' statement win against the Atlanta Falcons.

Falcons vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Lines

Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Commanders (+2.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (43.5)
  
• Prediction: Commanders 27 - Falcons 23

How to Watch Atlanta vs. Washington

• Game date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• Location: Atlanta, Georgia
• TV: CBS
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Falcons vs. Commanders Recent Matchups

• Washington owns a 4-1 record against Atlanta in their last five matchups.
• Atlanta and Washington have matched up evenly on offense over their most recent five matchups, with each team scoring 121 total points in those games.

Atlanta Betting Info

• This year, Atlanta has one win against the spread.
• The Falcons have not covered the spread this season (0-1 ATS) when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
• Atlanta games this year have yet to go over the total in three opportunities.
• The Falcons have been moneyline favorites one other time this season, a game they lost.
• The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Falcons a 58.7% chance to win.

Falcons Stats

Atlanta's Key Players

Offense

• On the ground, Bijan Robinson averages 5.1 yards per attempt (13th in the NFL) and 79.7 yards per game for 239 total rushing yards (sixth in the NFL). He's looking for his first rushing touchdown of the season.
• He has hauled in 14 passes (on 18 targets) for 164 receiving yards with one touchdown. He's averaging 54.7 receving yards and 4.7 catches per game.
• Michael Penix Jr. has thrown for 605 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions this year. He averages 201.7 yards per game and 6.1 per attempt, while completing 58.6%.
• He has added 29 rushing yards (9.7 per game) and one touchdown on the ground.
• Tyler Allgeier has 104 rushing yards with one touchdown (34.7 yards per game through three games).
• Drake London has put up 159 receiving yards without a touchdown with 16 catches on 27 targets. He is averaging 5.3 receptions and 53 yards per game.

Defense

• On defense, Kaden Elliss has one sack (third on the Falcons) to go with three TFL and 18 tackles in 2025.
• Xavier Watts has 17 tackles and one interception.
• Billy Bowman has put up one interception (eighth in the NFL) and added 14 tackles, 0.5 sacks, and two passes defended.
• So far this season, Zach Harrison has 10 tackles, one TFL, and 1.5 sacks.

Washington Betting Info

• Washington has covered the spread twice in three games with a set total.
• The Commanders have yet to cover the spread this year when underdogs by 2.5 points or more.
• Games involving Washington have hit the over once this year.
• The Commanders lost the only game they've played as the underdog this season.
• The implied probability of a win by the Commanders based on the moneyline is 45.5%.

Commanders Stats

Washington's Key Players

Offense

• Through two games played this year, Jayden Daniels has racked up 433 passing yards, while throwing three touchdowns against zero interceptions and completing 59.7% of his passes.
• He's added 85 yards on the ground (third on the Commanders), while scoring zero rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 42.5 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt.
• Deebo Samuel has 132 receiving yards and one touchdown on 16 receptions, while being targeted 21 times.
• This season in three games, Jacory Croskey-Merritt has churned out 125 rushing yards (leading the Commanders) and scored two rushing touchdowns. He averages 41.7 yards per game and 5.7 per attempt (fifth in the NFL).
• Zach Ertz has 12 catches for 128 yards and two receiving touchdowns (seventh in the NFL). He averages four yards per game in three games and has been targeted 16 times.

Defense

• In 2025, Bobby Wagner has put up two sacks to go with three TFL and 32 tackles over three games.
• Dorance Armstrong Jr.'s stats include 15 tackles, four TFL, and three sacks.
• Da'Ron Payne has one sack (fourth on the Commanders) as well as two TFL and 12 tackles in the 2025 campaign.
• Marshon Lattimore has 12 tackles.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox?

Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.

FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience

Atlanta Falcons

Washington Commanders