Phillies vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 11

The Philadelphia Phillies and Alec Bohm will square off against the San Diego Padres and Manny Machado on Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET, at PETCO Park. Oddsmakers list the Phillies as -150 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Padres +125 moneyline odds to win. Philadelphia is favored on the run line (-1.5 with +110 odds). The over/under is 7.5 runs for this game (with -105 odds on the over and -115 odds on the under).

Check out everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Phillies vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, July 11, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, SDPA, and NBCS-PH

Phillies vs. Padres Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 5, Phillies 4
• Total Prediction: Under 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 51%, Padres 49%

Phillies vs. Padres Betting Insights

• The Phillies have won 47, or 65.3%, of the 72 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Philadelphia has a record of 34-11 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -150 on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 60% chance to win.
• The Padres have come away with 21 wins in the 44 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• San Diego has a win-loss record of 9-14 when favored by +125 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
• The Padres have an implied victory probability of 44.4% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies have a 5-2 record across the seven games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 outings, the Phillies and their opponents combined to hit the over three times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Phillies' ATS record is 7-3-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies in home runs (29) and runs batted in (68).
• Schwarber ranks fourth in home runs and ninth in RBI among all batters in baseball.
• Schwarber has collected a hit in six games in a row. In his last 10 games he is hitting .289 with three doubles, four home runs, five walks and 11 RBIs.
• Trea Turner's .294 batting average leads his team.
• Turner ranks 93rd in homers and 92nd in RBI on the season.
• Nick Castellanos is batting .276 with 22 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 20 walks.
• Castellanos has at least one base hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .250 with an RBI.
• Bohm is hitting .282 with 12 doubles, two triples, eight home runs and 22 walks.
• Bohm has recorded at least one hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .278 with a home run, four walks and three RBIs.

Phillies Team Props

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times.
• The Padres have a record of 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Machado paces the Padres with 16 home runs and 54 runs batted in, while recording a team-high batting average of .291.
• In all of the big leagues, Machado ranks 36th in home runs and 29th in RBI.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has put his power on display as he leads his team with 16 home runs.
• Tatis is 36th overall in home runs and 89th in RBI this year.
• Luis Arraez has 17 doubles, four triples, five home runs and 18 walks while hitting .285.
• Gavin Sheets has 14 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 27 walks while batting .269.

Padres Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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