Mets vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 5

Andrew Abbott will start for the Cincinnati Reds against Pete Alonso and the New York Mets on Friday at 6:40 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers list the Mets as -116 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Reds -104 moneyline odds. New York is a 1.5-run favorite (at +137 odds). The over/under for the game is set at 9 runs.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Reds game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Cardinals vs. Reds Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds.

Mets vs. Reds Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, September 5, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio
• How to watch on TV: FDSOH and SNY

Mets vs. Reds Prediction

• Score Prediction: Reds 5, Mets 4
• Total Prediction: Under 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 52%, Reds 48%

Mets vs. Reds Betting Insights

• The Mets have entered the game as favorites 99 times this season and won 57, or 57.6%, of those games.
• New York has a record of 55-41, a 57.3% win rate, when favored by -116 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 53.7%.
• The Reds have come away with 36 wins in the 75 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This year, Cincinnati has won 31 of 68 games when listed as at least -104 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Reds have an implied victory probability of 51% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets went 4-4 over the eight games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Mets and their opponents combined to hit the over seven times.
• The Mets' record against the spread is 6-4-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto has hit a team-high 37 home runs.
• In all of the majors, Soto ranks seventh in homers and 12th in RBI.
• Soto carries a six-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .371 with a triple, five home runs, 11 walks and 14 RBIs.
• Pete Alonso has 113 runs batted in while batting .271. Both are team-highs.
• Alonso ranks eighth in homers in baseball, and second in RBI.
• Alonso heads into this matchup looking for his third game in a row with a hit. During his last five outings he is batting .318 with a double, two home runs, a walk and three RBIs.
• Francisco Lindor is hitting .265 with 29 doubles, 26 home runs and 49 walks.
• Brandon Nimmo is batting .267 with 27 doubles, 22 home runs and 46 walks.
• Nimmo has recorded at least one hit in 10 straight games. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .405 with four doubles, two home runs, three walks and 10 RBIs.

Mets Team Props

Reds Recent Betting Performance

• The Reds have played as underdogs in six of their past 10 games and won one of those contests.
• The Reds and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Reds have won two of their last 10 games against the spread.

Reds Recent Stats

Reds Player Insights

• Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds in home runs (19) and runs batted in (78).
• In all of MLB, De La Cruz is 70th in homers and 29th in RBI.
• TJ Friedl is batting .267 with 19 doubles, two triples, 11 home runs and 68 walks.
• Friedl is 169th in homers and 168th in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Spencer Steer is hitting .237 with 20 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 42 walks.
• Austin Hays has 15 doubles, five triples, 13 home runs and 27 walks while hitting .262.

Reds Team Props

Cardinals vs. Reds Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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