Mets vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 28

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins will play on Thursday at Citi Field, at 7:10 p.m. ET, with Francisco Lindor and Xavier Edwards among those expected to step up at the plate. The Marlins are listed as +216 moneyline underdogs in this matchup with the favorite Mets (-267). New York is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The total is 9 runs for the contest (with -100 odds to hit the over and -120 odds on the under).

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Keep up with MLB on FOX Sports.

Braves vs. Marlins Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins.

Mets vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, August 28, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, SNY, and FDSFL

Mets vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 5, Marlins 3
• Total Prediction: Under 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 56%, Marlins 44%

Mets vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• This season, the Mets have been favored 92 times and won 54, or 58.7%, of those games.
• This season New York has won 11 of its 12 games, or 91.7%, when favored by at least -267 on the moneyline.
• The Mets have a 72.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Marlins have been underdogs in 111 games this season and have come away with the win 52 times (46.8%) in those contests.
• This season, Miami has come away with a win two times in six chances when named as an underdog of at least +216 or longer on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 31.6% chance of walking away with the win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets went 3-3 over the six games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings, the Mets and their opponents combined to go over the total six times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Mets' ATS record is 7-3-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto's 32 home runs in 2025 are the most on the Mets. He's also knocked in 79 runs while hitting .251.
• Soto's home runs rank him seventh in MLB, and he ranks 21st in RBI.
• Soto carries a four-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .235 with seven walks and three RBIs.
• Lindor's .265 batting average leads his team.
• Lindor ranks 28th in home runs and 38th in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Lindor has two games in a row with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is batting .273 with two walks and an RBI.
• Pete Alonso has racked up a team-high batting average of .265 and leads the Mets in runs batted in (106).
• Alonso has at least one base hit in three games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .318 with a double, a home run, two walks and five RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo is batting .258 with 23 doubles, 20 home runs and 44 walks.
• Nimmo is riding a three-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .357 with a walk and three RBIs.

Mets Team Props

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• The Marlins have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents have combined to hit the over six times.
• The Marlins have a record of 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Edwards leads the Marlins with a team-leading batting average of .288.
• Among all batters in the big leagues, Edwards is 374th in home runs and 219th in RBI.
• Otto Lopez is hitting .237 with 17 doubles, 11 home runs and 41 walks.
• Lopez ranks 158th among all hitters in the majors in homers, and 85th in RBI.
• Agustin Ramirez has 27 doubles, a triple, 18 home runs and 28 walks while hitting .228.
• Eric Wagaman is hitting .232 with 21 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 29 walks.

Marlins Team Props

Braves vs. Marlins Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.

FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience

New York Mets

Miami Marlins