Mariners vs. Tigers ALDS Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 4

The ALDS begins Saturday at 8:38 p.m. ET when the Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers live from T-Mobile Park, and airing on Fox Sports 1. The Mariners are the favorite in this one, at -194, while the underdog Tigers have +161 odds to play spoiler. Seattle is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +116 odds). The over/under for the matchup is set at 7 runs.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Mariners-Tigers game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mariners vs. Tigers Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 8:38 p.m. ET
• Where: T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington
• How to watch on TV: Fox Sports 1

Mariners vs. Tigers Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mariners 5, Tigers 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mariners 54%, Tigers 46%

Mariners vs. Tigers Betting Insights

• This season, the Mariners have won 66 out of the 113 games, or 58.4%, in which they've been favored.
• Seattle has a record of 16-2 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -194 on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mariners have a 66% chance to win.
• The Tigers have been victorious in 25, or 48.1%, of the 52 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• Detroit has been listed as an underdog of +161 or more on two occasions this season and lost both games.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Tigers have a 38.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Mariners Recent Betting Performance

• The Mariners have a 5-2 record across the seven games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Mariners and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total five times.
• The Mariners are 6-4-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Mariners Recent Stats

Mariners Player Insights

• Cal Raleigh has gone yard 60 times in the 2025 campaign while driving in 125 runs, both totals that lead the Mariners.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Raleigh is first in home runs and third in RBI.
• Julio Rodriguez is hitting .267 with 31 doubles, four triples, 32 home runs and 44 walks.
• Rodriguez is 17th in homers in the majors, and 20th in RBI.
• Josh Naylor leads the Mariners with a .295 batting average.
• Naylor is on a 12-game hitting streak entering this contest. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .444 with four doubles, a home run, two walks and seven RBIs.
• Eugenio Suarez is hitting .228 with 28 doubles, 49 home runs and 46 walks.

Mariners Team Props

Tigers Recent Betting Performance

• The Tigers have played as underdogs in six of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Tigers and their opponents are 2-7-1 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Tigers have a record of 2-8-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Tigers Recent Stats

Tigers Player Insights

• Gleyber Torres is hitting .256 with 22 doubles, 16 home runs and 85 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .358.
• In all of the majors, Torres ranks 127th in home runs and 73rd in RBI.
• Riley Greene has been a reliable source of runs this year, leading the lineup with 36 home runs and 111 runs batted in.
• Among all major league hitters, Greene ranks 10th in homers and seventh in RBI.
• Spencer Torkelson is hitting .240 with 27 doubles, a triple, 31 home runs and 72 walks.
• Zach McKinstry leads the team in batting average with a mark of .259.

Tigers Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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