Mariners vs. Blue Jays ALCS Game 4 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 16

Game 4 of the ALCS will feature the Seattle Mariners playing host to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mariners will hope to extend their series lead and move closer to the World Series when action gets underway on Thursday starting at 8:33 p.m. ET on FS1, live from T-Mobile Park. The Mariners are -129 moneyline favorites for this matchup against the Blue Jays (+109). Seattle is favored on the run line (-1.5 with +170 odds). A 7.5-run over/under has been set for this contest.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Mariners-Blue Jays game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, October 16, 2025 at 8:33 p.m. ET
• Where: T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington
• How to watch on TV: FS1

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mariners 5, Blue Jays 4
• Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mariners 52%, Blue Jays 48%

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Betting Insights

• The Mariners have won 67, or 57.3%, of the 117 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Seattle has entered 86 games this season favored by -129 or more and is 53-33 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win from the Mariners, based on the moneyline, is 56.3%.
• The Blue Jays have been victorious in 45, or 57.7%, of the 78 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• Toronto has a mark of 25-18 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +109 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Blue Jays have an implied victory probability of 47.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Mariners Recent Betting Performance

• The Mariners were the moneyline favorite for five of their last 10 games, and went 1-4 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups (all had set totals), the Mariners combined with their opponents to go over the run total five times.
• The Mariners' record against the spread is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Mariners Recent Stats

Mariners Player Insights

• Cal Raleigh paces the Mariners in home runs (60) and runs batted in (125).
• Raleigh's home runs rank him first in MLB, and he ranks third in RBI.
• Julio Rodriguez has 31 doubles, four triples, 32 home runs and 44 walks while hitting .267.
• Rodriguez is 17th in homers and 20th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Rodriguez has three straight games with at least one hit. In his last five games he is hitting .211 with two home runs, five walks and five RBIs.
• Josh Naylor paces the Mariners with a team-high batting average of .295.
• Eugenio Suarez is batting .228 with 28 doubles, 49 home runs and 46 walks.
• Suarez has recorded at least one hit in three games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .182 with a double and a walk.

Mariners Team Props

Blue Jays Recent Betting Performance

• The Blue Jays have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and have gone 3-1 in those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Blue Jays and their opponents are 6-4-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Blue Jays are 7-3-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Blue Jays Recent Stats

Blue Jays Player Insights

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .292 with 34 doubles, 23 home runs and 81 walks, while getting on base at a rate of .381.
• In all of MLB, Guerrero ranks 62nd in homers and 43rd in RBI.
• George Springer has launched a team-high 32 home runs.
• Springer is 17th in homers and 43rd in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Ernie Clement has 35 doubles, two triples, nine home runs and 27 walks while batting .277.
• Alejandro Kirk is hitting .282 with 18 doubles, 15 home runs and 48 walks.

Blue Jays Team Props

Vinnie Pasquantino debates Vlad Jr. or Cal Raleigh , talks Ohtani, & builds perfect MLB Player

Vinnie Pasquantino joins Nick Wright and Danny Parkins on Frenemies to debate who he’d take between Cal Raleigh and Vladimir Jr., discuss whether Shohei Ohtani can break out of his slump, and build his perfect MLB player.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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