Major League Baseball

With great pitchers comes great postseason responsibility

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 1:09 a.m. ET

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The Washington Nationals have a 99.7 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.com. That’s the highest probability of any team in the majors. I’d say it’s safe to start talking about their postseason roster.

A number of difficult pitching decisions loom for first-year manager Matt Williams. Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg are apparent locks for the playoff rotation, leaving the fourth spot to veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez or right-hander Tanner Roark, who’s in his first full major-league season.

In most statistical categories, Roark has had a better season than Gonzalez, who missed one month with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Roark’s ERA is nearly one run lower (2.91 to 3.89), and Gonzalez’s walk rate is almost twice as high. (Gonzalez does have a slight edge in Fielding Independent Pitching.)

Yet, the fact that Roark has outperformed Gonzalez in 2014 may not be the determining factor in Williams’ decision. Rather, this could come down to a question of right vs. left — in two ways.

First, if the Nationals maintain the best record in the NL, they’ll play the winner of the wild-card game. And Washington’s potential Division Series opponents have notable disparities in their performances against right- and left-handed starters this year:

— Braves: 17-11 vs. LHS, 56-56 vs. RHS

— Dodgers: 23-12 vs. LHS, 55-50 vs. RHS

— Brewers: 21-14 vs. LHS, 52-52 vs. RHS

— Giants: 24-26 vs. LHS, 52-38 vs. RHS

— Cardinals: 17-17 vs. LHS, 59-46 vs. RHS

If Nationals officials believe Roark and Gonzalez are equally worthy of an NLDS start, the opponent could dictate the decision: Roark against the Braves, Dodgers or Brewers; Gonzalez against the Giants or Cardinals.

The right/left question could come into play in another sense. The Nationals already have three established left-handed relievers in their bullpen: Jerry Blevins, Ross Detwiler and Matt Thornton, who has yet to allow an earned run in 12 appearances since arriving from the Yankees on a waiver claim last month.

It’s rare that a team would carry four left-handed relievers in its bullpen at any time, let alone the postseason. But one could argue that Gonzalez would have value in the playoffs as a long reliever: If the Nationals go with an all-righty rotation, the opposition is likely to stack its lineup with as many left-handed hitters as possible; in that case, a left-handed long reliever would be optimal.

However the Nationals’ postseason pitching staff comes together, it should be an excellent one. On Wednesday, Williams watched as three September call-ups — lefty Xavier Cedeño and righties Aaron Barrett and Blake Treinen — combined for 2 2/3 scoreless relief innings during an epic 14-inning victory over the Dodgers. Barrett is viewed as a potential closer in the long term and could force his way into postseason roster consideration with a strong September.

Eventually, it will be time to answer the long-awaited question: In which game of the NLDS will Strasburg make his postseason debut? Though Zimmermann and Strasburg have been key figures in the franchise’s ascent, let’s not forget that Fister has six straight quality starts in the playoffs, the longest such streak of any active pitcher. Fister also is an expert at holding runners, as the Washington Post’s James Wagner wrote recently; that would be a key consideration if the Nationals encounter Dodgers speedster Dee Gordon.

It says here that Fister is the Nationals’ best choice to start Game 1, regardless of the opponent. We’ll need to wait a month to see whether Williams agrees.