WhatIfSports NFL Week 6 predictions: Seattle narrowly defeats Atlanta

BY foxsports • October 11, 2016

Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.

Note: Our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2016 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.

Week 5 in Review

Week 5 was about as 50-50 as it gets. Our NFL simulation engine went 7-7 picking games straight up, and went 5-6 (45.5 percent) against the spread. We missed on the Game of the Week pick, where we predicted the Bengals to defeat the Cowboys, and on our Against the Spread pick, where we picked the Eagles to cover (-3) against the Lions. Fortunately, our Lock Pick of the Patriots over the Browns held up. 

Nailed It: Patriots 33 - Browns 13. The simulation believes in Touchdown Tom. We predicted the Patriots to win 90.4 percent of the time, by an average score of Pats 33 - Browns 15. Cleveland actually had a chance at a two-point try to give us a perfect match, but didn't convert.

Wide Right: Lions 24 - Eagles 23. The Lions surprised us all on Sunday, as we predicted the Eagles to get the win 79.5 percent of the time by an average score of 26-15. A late fumble by Ryan Mathews and interception by Darius Slay sealed the deal for the Lions. 

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season.

Week 6 Game to Watch

Falcons at Seahawks:  For the second straight year, the Atlanta Falcons have taken the league by storm through the first five weeks. Waiting in the wings, however, is a well-rested Seattle Seahawks team looking to establish its NFC dominance. We have the Seahawks protecting home field, slowing down Atlanta's offense and winning 53.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 25-24. 

Week 6 Against the Spread Pick

Jaguars (+2.5) over Bears: Chicago has looked better with Brian Hoyer under center, but the Jags are coming off a bye week and have the offensive firepower to give the Bears trouble. We have the Jags winning this one 59.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 28-25. 

Fantasy Radar

Fantasy Start -- Ryan Mathews, PHI: Looking much healthier coming off a bye week, Ryan Mathews is starting to pick up some momentum and is projected to be our sixth highest scoring running back in Week 6. The matchup is right at least, as the Redskins are currently dead last in the league in rushing yards allowed per attempt.

Fantasy Sit -- Tevin Coleman, ATL: He's coming off another huge week where he made a big impact in the passing game, but Seattle's run defense isn't to be trifled with. Our projections have Coleman scoring just 5.8 points and playing second fiddle to Devonta Freeman. 

Fantasy Add -- Marcus Mariota, TEN: He's had a slow start to the season, but perhaps last week's four touchdown performance will move things in the right direction. Mariota is projected to be our ninth highest scoring QB of the week, thanks in large part to his matchup with the hapless Browns. 

For more fantasy football tips, view our Week 6 player projections.

NFL Week 6 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score
Indianapolis Colts 30.3 20 Box Score
@ Houston Texans 69.7 26 Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals 32.7 22 Box Score
@ New England Patriots 67.3 28 Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers 35.3 19 Box Score
@ Buffalo Bills 64.7 24 Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns 36.5 22 Box Score
@ Tennessee Titans 63.5 26 Simulate Game
New York Jets 37.9 24 Box Score
@ Arizona Cardinals 62.1 28 Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys 43.9 21 Box Score
@ Green Bay Packers 56.1 23 Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons 46.6 24 Box Score
@ Seattle Seahawks 53.4 25 Simulate Game
Kansas City Chiefs 48.0 22 Box Score
@ Oakland Raiders 52.0 23 Simulate Game
Jacksonville Jaguars 59.5 28 Box Score
@ Chicago Bears 40.5 25 Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers 59.7 28 Box Score
@ New Orleans Saints 40.3 25 Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens 59.5 27 Box Score
@ New York Giants 40.5 24 Simulate Game
Philadelphia Eagles 71.0 24 Box Score
@ Washington Redskins 29.0 17 Simulate Game
Los Angeles Rams 72.6 24 Box Score
@ Detroit Lions 27.4 16 Simulate Game
Denver Broncos 75.2 26 Box Score
@ San Diego Chargers 24.8 17 Simulate Game
Pittsburgh Steelers 76.6 32 Box Score
@ Miami Dolphins 23.4 22 Simulate Game

For additional content, view our Week 6 NFL Power RankingsNFL archive or sortable weekly NFL predictions.

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