Green Bay Packers

Reasons why the Packers will (or won't) be playing in Super Bowl 50

Published Jun. 30, 2015 4:00 p.m. ET

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The Packers were five minutes away from Super Bowl XLIX. They have the NFL's reigning Most Valuable Player at quarterback. They lost no key offensive contributors since last season.

Yes, Green Bay is set up well to once again make a serious run in 2015.

But will it result in a trip to Super Bowl 50? Or will the Packers lose yet another year of Aaron Rodgers' prime?

There will be many factors in play that will ultimately contribute to whether the Lombardi Trophy returns to Green Bay. Here are the main ones . . .

Why the Packers will still be playing on Feb. 7, 2016 :

1. Rodgers is just that much better than the vast majority of NFL quarterbacks. Having him on the roster instantly gives the Packers a significant advantage.

How many games this season will Green Bay go in with an inferior -- or even equal-caliber -- signal-caller? An argument can be made that Russell Wilson (Week 2) and Peyton Manning (Week 8) will give their respective teams just as much of a chance to win as Rodgers gives the Packers. But that's the end of the list.

It's a quarterback's league. Rodgers is not only one of the best (perhaps even the best), but also he's still getting better. Any decline in his game shouldn't be seen for at least a few more seasons. He can pass out of the pocket, he can extend plays and he can run for positive yards. Rodgers is a defensive coordinator's worst nightmare. As long as Rodgers is on the field, Green Bay will more often than not be favored to win.

2. The Packers don't expect Rodgers to do it alone. General manager Ted Thompson has provided his quarterback with a top-notch supporting cast.

Green Bay boasts one of the NFL's best offensive lines, a group that returns all five starters after re-signing right tackle Bryan Bulaga this offseason.

The wide receiver duo of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb is something that nearly every other quarterback in the league can only dream about. If all the hype from Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy about Davante Adams turns into production for the second-year player, the Packers will once again have a star trio of wideouts.

Eddie Lacy is already one of the NFL's five best running backs. He's also a rapidly improving pass-catcher out of the backfield. Gone are the days when opposing defenses can entirely game plan to stop Rodgers, because Lacy is a threat now, too.

Green Bay was the league's highest-scoring offense in 2014, and there's little reason to expect anything but the same in 2015.

3. McCarthy giving up offensive play-calling responsibilities was one of the bigger surprises across the NFL this offseason. However, that allows McCarthy to insert himself much more into defense and special teams.

The Packers' special teams was the worst in the league last season. With a new special teams coordinator (Ron Zook), several pieces being released (Brandon Bostick, DuJuan Harris), a prized return man being drafted in the third round (Ty Montgomery) and McCarthy's input, there's reason to think it will be much improved. Even if Green Bay can field an average group on special teams, it should make a real difference.

McCarthy had his hand in one of the bigger defensive decisions in 2014, choosing to move Clay Matthews from outside linebacker to inside linebacker during the bye week. Dom Capers is still calling the shots, but McCarthy's oversight into the defense will be more prevalent than ever. The Packers don't need a top-five defense in order to get to the Super Bowl, but McCarthy needs to make sure the group never again finds itself last in any category -- like they were in run defense throughout the early parts of last season.

Why the Packers will be done in January:

1. There are few things more important in the NFL than the health of the team, especially when it comes to its top players.

Green Bay should be better equipped to handle any potential injury to Rodgers. In 2013, McCarthy found out the hard way when Seneca Wallace clearly had no business handling the offense, and Scott Tolzien was too new to the team to effectively take over. Still, even with Tolzien more comfortable now in his third season with the Packers, there's an incredible drop-off from Rodgers to him. An injury to Rodgers would instantly take Green Bay from a Super Bowl favorite to a playoff underdog.

An injury to Lacy would thrust James Starks into a starting role. Starks is a solid backup, but the offense would change drastically without Lacy. That would also mean that either second-year undrafted running back Rajion Neal or undrafted rookie John Crockett would become No. 2 on the depth chart, and neither player is likely ready for that level of responsibility.

The offensive line has two good backups in Don Barclay and JC Tretter, but the Packers -- like any team -- would struggle if they had to replace one of their starters over the long haul.

Not having Nelson or Cobb would put a lot on the shoulders of Adams. It would also require an unproven receiver like Jeff Janis, Jared Abbrederis or Montgomery to assume the No. 3 role.

Defensively, Green Bay has even less room for error. An injury to any one of its main defensive contributors could be too much to overcome.

2. Sam Shields expected the Packers to re-sign either Tramon Williams or Davon House. To Shields' surprise (and to the surprise of just about everyone), Green Bay failed to re-sign either of them.

In typical Thompson fashion, he replaced the two veteran cornerbacks with cheaper, more unproven pieces in the draft. Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins could live up to their billing as first- and second-round picks, but it could take time. Position coach Joe Whitt noted during the draft how cornerback development is a longer process compared to other spots on the field.

History suggests that Shields is going to miss anywhere from two to six games due to injury. Will Randall or Rollins -- or the equally inexperienced Demetri Goodson -- be able to step in without too much of a drop-off?

The Packers also have to hope that Casey Hayward can make the transition from part-time player who excelled in the slot to full-time starter who plays well on the outside. Hayward has better ball skills than any cornerback on the roster, but there was obviously a reason why he wasn't getting playing time ahead of Williams or Shields last season. Hayward also has a history of hamstring issues, and he's currently dealing with a foot injury. If Hayward misses time, it brings up the same questions about depth and whether Rollins, Randall and Goodson could handle it.

3. Matthews was a bit of a cure-all for Green Bay's 2014 defense. After the Packers' decision to wait until the fourth round to draft an inside linebacker (Jake Ryan), Matthews spent most of his time in OTAs and minicamp working inside.

It should be easier for opposing offenses to see Matthews coming in 2015 now that there's 10 games of film to study it. Matthews has the talent to thrive regardless, but Capers has likely shown everything there is to show in those packages.

Green Bay has the depth at outside linebacker to allow Capers the flexibility of using Matthews wherever. That doesn't entirely cover the team's issue at inside linebacker, though. Sam Barrington still has a lot to prove, and everyone behind him is unproven (Ryan, Carl Bradford, Joe Thomas). It's an area of the defense that could still be exposed and cost the Packers a chance at playing in the final game of the season.

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