National Football League

Projecting Packers' playoff chances: Good chance for No. 1 seed

Published Dec. 3, 2014 1:07 p.m. ET

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GREEN BAY, Wis. -- With the end of the regular season less than one month away, the Green Bay Packers' undefeated streak since the bye has put the team in position to win the NFC North for the fourth consecutive year. If the Packers win out, the division is theirs. That would also turn Lambeau Field into the venue that a trip to the Super Bowl runs through, if the Arizona Cardinals' (also with a 9-3 record) downfall continues and they lose one of their final four games.

Given that Green Bay just beat the Philadelphia Eagles (now 9-3) and the New England Patriots (also 9-3), no upcoming opponent is likely to enter a matchup with the Packers favored to win. That begins Monday night with the Atlanta Falcons, who are currently 13-point underdogs.

It would be very unlikely for either the Falcons (even though they do somehow lead the NFC South at 5-7) or the 2-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to knock off Green Bay. While there are upsets every week in the NFL, including Week 12 when the winless Oakland Raiders beat the then-7-3 Kansas City Chiefs, it's safe to figure the Packers will win at least those two December games.

That leaves a road game against the Buffalo Bills and a Week 17 rematch with the Detroit Lions, this time at Lambeau Field.

Buffalo is one of six AFC teams with a 7-5 record in a conference in which only one of those six would be in position to claim the final wild-card spot. The Bills have been successful because of a defense that ranks second in the NFL in points allowed, fifth in yards allowed, second in takeaways and first in sacks. The statistic to keep an eye on is Buffalo's second-place ranking in points allowed, as Green Bay lost to the teams ranked first (Detroit) and third (Seattle) in that category. Of course, when the quarterbacks are Aaron Rodgers and Kyle Orton, it tips the advantage to the Packers.

The most likely scenario for Green Bay's Week 17 game with the Lions is that the division will be decided that day. Detroit's next two games are at home against Tampa Bay and Minnesota, which should result in Lions victories. If Detroit can then beat the Bears in Chicago (a team that will have even less to play for then than it does now), the Lions would enter the regular-season finale at 11-4. If that happens, whether the Packers go 3-0 or 2-1 between now and then, that game would still have the division on the line because of Detroit's Week 3 head-to-head win.

Now, onto a projection of the most likely playoff scenario . . .

If Green Bay wins the NFC North, the odds are it will finish with a better overall record than Arizona (which has a two-game losing streak and still has to face Seattle, San Francisco, Kansas City and St. Louis), giving the Packers the No. 1 seed and a bye through the wild-card round. Seattle has won five of its last six games and already has a win over the Cardinals, so the projection here is that the Seahawks come back to win the NFC West and claim the No. 2 seed. Philadelphia wins the NFC East and is the No. 3 seed, and the New Orleans Saints (with a losing record) win the NFC South. The two wild-card spots would come down to Detroit, Arizona and Dallas, with one going on an early-January vacation. Projecting the Lions to go 3-1, the Cardinals 2-2 and the Cowboys 2-2 would have Dallas on the outside looking in, despite a 10-6 overall record. Arizona would be the No. 5 seed over Detroit due to a head-to-head win.

There are of course many other scenarios that could play out other than this one, but analyzing the way the NFC looks on Dec. 3 makes this a very realistic possibility. It also means a tentative plan for the Packers and Seahawks to meet on Sunday, Jan. 18, with the winner representing the NFC in Super Bowl 49.

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