Denver Broncos

FOX Fantasy, WhatIfSports SuperContest Week 3 NFL Picks

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 3:15 p.m. ET

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The 2015 SuperContest at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook promises to be bigger and better than ever as entrants are signing up at a record pace in hopes of potentially winning the first-ever $1 million grand prize.

Each week during the 2015 NFL season, FOX Sports fantasy editor Ryan Fowler and WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine, both part of Team OddsShark, will share three of their five SuperContest picks. Deadline for entering picks is 8pm ET Fridays.

Follow Team OddsShark's performance all season long with weekly picks (posted each Saturday afternoon) and current standings.

Picks subject to change after initial publication.

2015 Westgate SuperContest Season-To-Date Records
Entry	Record
Ryan Fowler	8-2
WhatIfSports NFL Simulation Engine	4-6

Week 3 ATS Picks

Ryan Fowler

Steelers (-1.5) over the Rams

Le'Veon Bell returns. The offense will go for two on scores. Ben Roethlisberger has Antonio Brown. This offense just posted 43 points on the 49ers. Now, granted, they aren't the same 49ers defense of a few seasons ago, but Pittsburgh managed to run the ball without one of the most dynamic running backs in the league and now Bell is injected into the mix. The Rams defense has allowed 27.5 points per game through the first two.

The Rams continue to seek out an indentity on offense. Will that come in the form of a healthy Todd Gurley on Sunday? At time of publication, it was still 50/50 and his return would be limited. The Steelers put a ton of pressure on Colin Kaepernick to the tune of five sacks and eight knockdowns. If they can do the same to Nick Foles, Steelers earn the road win.

Colts (-3) over the Titans

Another road favorite. Dangerous territory, I know.

Andrew Luck had rotten ... er... um... DAMN ... luck to face the Bills in their home stadium and then arguably the best defense in the league at home Week 2. Plus, if you really want to split hairs, what-if Frank Gore doesn't fumble on his way for six points? I think the game is different. May not have resulted in a Colts win and probably not a cover (Jets +7), but Luck isn't the black sheep of the NFL heading into Week 3.

If the Colts are smart, they'll work Andre Johnson out of the offense this week and concentrate on targeting Hilton, Moncrief and Dorsett in the passing game. Frank Gore at around 15 touches a game seems to be the best practice.

This will be the Titans first test against a real offense. Matchups against Johnny Manziel and the Browns and Jameis Winston in his debut without Mike Evans doesn't really set the tone for if the Titans are actually improved from their 27th ranked defense (total) and 29th ranked scoring defense (27.4 PAPG) from a season ago.

Broncos (-3) over the Lions

A third road favorite. Ugh. This game is probably the riskiest of my three in that Matthew Stafford - at the time a perceived 100 percent healthy - did have some early success against the Chargers in Week 1 and managed to target Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Eric Ebron a combined 37 times against the Vikings. We know the Lions can - and probably will - score via the pass.

However, two things stand out when it comes to this matchup:

First, the Lions rushing game has been pretty awful the first two games. Outside of Ameer Abdullah's 24-yard touchdown in Week 1, first quarter, he and Joique Bell have been non-threats. So, take the running game out of the equation (DEN rush defense 110.0 RYAPG), a banged up Stafford faces a pass defense that has yet to allow a passing touchdown this season. Again, to be clear, that was against Joe Flacco with zero weapons and Alex Smith "game manager", but it's still zero.

Denver MUST get their own ground game going against the Lions. Detroit has allowed 149 rush yards / game to Adrian Peterson / Danny Woodhead / Melvin Gordon trio the first two weeks. The secondary has allowed 278 yards per game, but let's not forget the Keenan Allen 15-reception feast from Week 1. Emmanuel Sanders and Demayrius Thomas just need Manning's arm to get the ball there. They'll handle the rest.

WhatIfSports NFL Simulation Engine

Bengals (+2.5) over the Ravens

WhatIfSports.com’s NFL simulation engine is picking a trio of road upsets in Week 3, and all three rank among our highest in ATS confidence. First, we like the Bengals to win in Baltimore. In wins over Oakland and San Diego, the Bengals have allowed 600 total yards to the opposition, fifth-best in the league. The offense has done its part too, with tight end Tyler Eifert adding a new dimension to the passing game. The Ravens, meanwhile, are 0-2 with losses at Denver and Oakland. The Bengals and Raiders both scored 33 points in Oakland, but Cincinnati’s defense surrendered 13 points, compared to Baltimore’s 37 points. (To be fair, Derek Carr was injured during the second quarter against Cincy, but was healthy enough to torch the Ravens for 351 yards and three touchdowns a week later.) We simulated Bengals vs. Ravens 501 times and Cincinnati covered the spread 65.7 percent of the time. View the box score.

Bills (+3) over the Dolphins

In another upset pick, we like the Bills to beat the Dolphins in Miami. Both teams are 1-1, but Buffalo has played a more challenging schedule. In Week 1, the Bills upset the favored Colts, leading 17-0 at the half on the way to a 27-14 victory. In Week 2, the Bills couldn’t keep up with Tom Brady and the Patriots. Though the final score was 40-32, Buffalo needed 19 fourth-quarter points to achieve the respectable outcome. Miami’s schedule has included a Week 1 win over Washington by a score of 17-10 and a 23-20 Week 2 loss at Jacksonville. The Redskins and Jaguars combined for seven wins in 2014, compared to 23 wins for the Colts and Patriots. Our simulation engine predicts Buffalo to win by an average score of 24-20. View the box score.

Chargers (+2.5) over the Vikings

In Week 1, we incorrectly picked Lions over Chargers. Week 2 saw a Lions over Vikings pick go astray. Will we finally crack the combination in Week 3 with Chargers over Vikings? Each team is 1-1, with its win coming at home against Detroit. Minnesota earned the more impressive win, defeating Detroit 26-16 last week. San Diego needed to rally from a 21-3 deficit for its 33-28 victory. We simulated the Chargers and Vikings 501 times, with the Chargers winning 58.5 percent of simulations by an average score of 25-22. San Diego beat the 2.5-point spread in 61.1 percent of simulations. View the box score.