Fixing baseball: 13 pitchers, 13 hitters!
We can’t (or shouldn’t) take too much from a single game, or a single week of games, or even a whole month of games. Still, it’s not like Sunday night’s opener was our first canary in the coal mine...
Get enough canaries and you’ve got ... well, a bunch of dead canaries. Which makes for quite the mess. Here was the first canary of what’s sure to be many, many this season:
@jazayerli Steve Treder's piece in the Hardball Times Annual this winter is the best I've seen on that topic.
— Mike Fast (@fastballs) April 6, 2015
Here’s a clip from Treder’s piece, which is indeed excellent:
In discussions about this issue (and/or the issue of declining scoring rates in general), one often encounters an assertion to the effect of, “These things are cyclical. Left alone, current trends will revert toward historical equilibrium.” However, baseball history provides no evidence to support such an assertion. Indeed, the historical record indicates that reversal of long-scale dynamics occurs only through imposition (whether intentionally or not) of significantly new conditions. Therefore:
If no changes are undertaken, we will see ever-greater rates of strikeouts. As the rate of strikeouts overtakes the rate of hits, batting averages, base runners, long-sequence innings, and scoring will continue to decline.
--snip--
If MLB does nothing, we will continue to see the rate of strikeouts climb to ever-unprecedented levels, and therefore continue to see ever-fewer plays in the field and ever-fewer runners on the bases. Here is one voice raised in favor of striving to act to improve the quality of the game we love.
Treder does make four suggestions, suggestions we’ve probably discussed in this very space. I don’t believe that fielder’s gloves will be made smaller, and I don’t believe bat handles will be thickened. Or even if these things did happen, that the strikeout rate would drop.
Which leaves two other ideas: shrink the strike zone, and lengthen the “typical” length of pitcher’s outings. To which I would (of course) add: Lower the mound by an inch or three.
There are two big problems attending all three of these suggestions. One is that the union would fight all three like hell, just as a matter of course. The second is that, without any real testing, there would be unintended consequences that many would find unpalatable.
Still, I think in the long term we will see at least one of those three measures. Maybe two, or maybe all three. As the scope of the #StrikeoutScourge only becomes more apparent.
Let’s talk short term, though.
At the end of next year, the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires. I will be shocked if the next CBA includes any real changes to the playing rules. Not with all this money coming in. Not with NOBODY on either side even MENTIONING the elephant in the room (#StrikeoutScourge).
Everybody loves all the revenues, and roughly half the union membership just loves eight-man bullpens. Can’t we find some common ground, though?
My proposal: Recognize that eight-man bullpens aren’t going anywhere – not soon, anyway – but also admit that three-man benches make the game less interesting. Once you’ve done both of these things, then you can start thinking about adding a roster spot, but mandate that teams simply can’t carry more than 13 pitchers.
You have to have the second clause, because otherwise almost every team would simply carry nine relief pitchers rather than eight. The #StrikeoutScourge is due largely to all the hard-throwing relief pitchers, often pitching with the platoon advantage.
What can you do in the short term about that? Again, not much. Anything radical probably has to wait until the next CBA, six or seven years from now. In the short term, though, adding another hitter to the roster will give the manager a few more options, which makes the game a little more interesting and will take away a small percentage of platoon advantages the defense is getting now.
Again, I know it’s a small thing. But a small thing is better than no thing at all. And please, trust me on this: There is nothing sacred about 25-man rosters.