Major League Baseball

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For September 21

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 12, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; A general view of the DraftKings sign board during the match with FC Dallas playing against New York City FC at Toyota Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For September 21

We only have three afternoon games today, which leaves our pitching options very weak for our DraftKings lineups. Four of the six are between $7,200 and $7,800. Are two of those the best options, or should we use one of the lower two? Let’s check the past stats for some help.

NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

German Marquez will make his first major league start against the Cardinals today. At Coors Field, no less. He was homer-prone at AAA. Don’t even think about using him here.

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Sep 6, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Aaron Sanchez (41) pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet:

Aaron Sanchez ($7,800): The last time we saw Sanchez, he was getting tattooed by the Red Sox on Patriot Day. His only start against the Mariners came in May of last year. He was okay in that game. He may not even have to be that today against a struggling King Felix. Sanchez wont go deep into this game, but he has better strikeout potential than anyone else on this short slate.

Honorable Mention:

Collin McHugh ($7,300): This light slate is all about finding the pitchers that are least likely to hurt you. The A’s have managed a .259 average against McHugh in 108 at bats, but they have only scored eight runs and have struck out 30 times. Those K’s help to erase the base runners. McHugh is a solid bet for those of you fading Sanchez.

Felix Hernandez ($7,200): The past stats belie the King’s recent struggles. The Jays are only hitting .177 against Felix in 198 at bats with 55 strikeouts. He has allowed seven homers and 18 runs, but the strikeouts have helped limit the damage. Now the bad news: King Felix has just eight strikeouts in three September starts combined. The past stats say use him, but his recent struggles paint a cautionary picture.

Sep 4, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien (10) breaks up the no hitter with a single to Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (not pictured) during the eight inning at the Oakland Coliseum the Oakland Athletics defeated the Boston Red Sox 1 to 0. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!

You may want to consider a Toronto stack just because of the struggles of Felix Hernandez. Jose Bautista ($4,200) is 8-25(.320) with seven walks, a double, and three solo homers. Josh Donaldson ($4,200) only has six hits in 36 at bats, but he has two walks, a double, a homer, and three driven in against King Felix. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,400) is 6-26(.231) with a walk, a double, two homers, and seven driven in against Hernandez.

Marcus Semien ($3,400) is 7-15(.467) with three walks, three doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Collin McHugh. Danny Valencia ($3,300) is 6-20 with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against McHugh.

Daniel Mengden will be popular because he is facing the strikeout-prone Astros, but don’t fall into that trap. Houston is hitting .297 against him with eight runs in just 37 at bats. The 11 strikeouts are nice, but is it really worth it? Especially when you have Carlos Correa ($4,300), who is 2-3 with three walks, a homer, and four RBI against Mengden looming. Jose Altuve ($5,000) has three hits in six at bats, but has only one RBI to show for it.

Kyle Seager ($) is 2-3 with a solo homer against Aaron Sanchez.

Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play on FanDuel before checking it out!

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!