National Football League

Analysis: Falcons should ... quickly re-sign wideout Julio Jones

Published Feb. 13, 2015 7:00 a.m. ET

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There's no limit to the number of topics FOX Sports South writers Knox Bardeen and Jay Clemons can find to create disagreement. This time, the duo squares off about a new contract extension for Atlanta Falcons wideout Julio Jones. Is now the right time for the team to open up the checkbook? To view Clemons' take on Atlanta's top receiver, click here.

ATLANTA -- The Atlanta Falcons are stuck with Julio Jones.

What an enviable problem that is to have. Jones finished third in the NFL last season with 104 catches and 1,593 receiving yards. No receiver caught more than the 31 passes of 20 yards or more that Jones did, and when it came to moving the chains, only Antonio Brown had more than the 76 first downs Jones posted.

So what's with the use of the word stuck? Why not pleased or even psyched?

The answer to both questions is more financial than athletic, but there is some on-field reasoning as well. Let's start with X's and O's.

There's no arguing about Jones' ability and upside. His stats from 2014 show that, as do his stats in just five games in 2013. Don't forget that no receiver (Saints tight end Jimmy Graham was the only player with more) had more receiving yards prior to his injury, and no one topped Jones' 41 catches.

Jones also hauled in 18 touchdown passes during his first two years, and averaged 1,078.5 yards receiving per season.

There's one huge problem with Jones' first four seasons with the Falcons: injuries.

Of the 64 possible regular-season games he could have played, Jones started just 48. He missed three games during his rookie season due to injury and all but five in 2013. The injury woes weren't exclusive to the NFL either. Jones dealt with similar issues while playing the University of Alabama.

Jones has never started in all 16 games of any season he's been in the NFL.

On one hand you have an elite-level receiver, one that should get paid similarly to the top pass-catchers in the league. On the other hand, you have a player that's had trouble staying healthy for the duration of his professional career, and portions of his college years too.

It's hard to imagine Jones and his agent not asking for the same -- or close to it -- type of money that Lions receiver Calvin Johnson got, or Larry Fitzgerald from the Cardinals. Their stance is a simple matter of looking at what Jones did in 2014, and the five games he played in 2013. Heck, even the upside present during his first two seasons can sway his argument.

Bird is the Word Podcast: Should Falcons extend Jones' contract? by Fox Sports South Podcasts on Mixcloud

The Falcons, in rebuttal, are going to point to Jones' time away from the field due to injury.

Upside and talent versus injury risk.

Atlanta also must consider the contract it doled out to quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons paid him $103.75 million over five years in 2013. What would happen to the salary-cap situation to have two $100-million athletes on the books?

The Falcons can't focus on the negative side of this conversation. What's more important is to consider life without Jones.

The offense that sputtered in 2014, a unit that scored 23.8 points per game, was much more efficient with tight end Tony Gonzalez (26.2 points per game) than without. The Falcons missed Gonzalez more than expected. How much more of a drop off would occur if there was no Jones?

Sure the front office would find another receiver to replace Jones, but the thought of Roddy White and Harry Douglas anchoring an offense is too close a reminder to the four-win season of 2013.

In the current state of the Falcons' defense -- sure, new head coach Dan Quinn will be able to get the unit back on track -- the offense in Atlanta is the only thing keeping this team somewhat close to relevant. It could take Quinn and the new coaching staff multiple years to get Atlanta's defense where it needs to be. During that rebuilding period, the Falcons' offense has to be able to strike fear in opponents.

Making sure Jones is still around catching passes while the defense is rehabbed is important. And while it could be a sound strategy for the team to let Jones play out his rookie contract and then use the franchise tag in 2016, possibly even 2017, there's risk involved there.

What if Jones' 2015 season resembles his 2014? That's what the Falcons were hoping for when they drafted him, right? What if he's still performing at an elite level in 2016 too? At that point the defense should be much better, and this team could make another run or two at a title.

But Jones might feel slighted that the Falcons didn't trust him enough for a long-term contract. If he took to the open market then, the Atlanta offense might take too much of a step back.

The Falcons have to avoid that situation and extend Jones' contract prior to the 2015 season. When they do so, it would be great if the two sides could structure the deal in such a cap-friendly manner it would make Casper the Ghost look like a malcontent.

If Atlanta could spend the next two seasons rebuilding its defense after it opened its purse for Ryan and Jones, when the team moved into the new stadium in 2017 it should be playoff ready.

A happy Jones, a happy Ryan -- both under long-term contracts, of course -- and a much-improved defense come 2017 is a perfect win-win for the Falcons. And it's the best way for Atlanta to get back to its winning ways as quickly as possible.

If Jones were allowed to leave after 2015 -- or even 2016 -- growth would likely be stunted.

Could the Falcons trade Jones right now?

That's an insane notion. The same reason why Atlanta doesn't want to immediately make Jones one of the highest paid receivers in the league (injury issues) is the reason why NFL teams aren't going to pay the Falcons what he's worth in trade.

To move up 21 spots to draft Jones in 2011, the Falcons swapped first-round picks with the Browns that year, and gave them four more picks: a second- and fourth-round pick in 2011, and a first- and fourth-round pick in 2012. What could the Falcons get in return in a potential trade?

If the Falcons were lucky, they might get some contending team -- and remember, teams that are close to a Super Bowl run won't offer a lot of immediate help -- to toss back a lesser receiver and two draft picks, or maybe three picks (but that may be far-fetched). And it would be hard to believe one of those picks would be a first-rounder.

How could general manager Thomas Dimitroff trade away Jones for a lesser haul than he gave up to move heaven and earth to draft him in the first place? No matter how you looked at the deal when it happened, the Falcons mortgaged the future to get Jones.

A trip to the NFC Championship Game in 2012 was nice, but a near Super Bowl visit isn't a big enough bounty. When Dimitroff made that trade in 2011 and put the Falcons short-term depth in question, a Super Bowl win, or two, was the expectation. That Falcons team was build for that kind of run.

Now the franchise is in a state of disrepair, and if Dimitroff traded away arguably its best asset for much less than he gave up to get that asset, well Dimitroff might as well leave town the minute he shipped Jones away.

Atlanta can't get enough in trade value for that plan to work. And letting Jones walk via free agency is a silly notion too.

The best way for the Falcons to make all parties happy is to extend Jones' contract immediately. Doing so gives Atlanta the strongest chance of being playoff relevant as quickly as possible.

Team owner Arthur Blank has never hidden the notion that he wants to build and maintain a dynasty-level franchise here in Atlanta. Moving into a new stadium in 2017 with Ryan, Jones and a revamped defense is the way to go.