National Football League

All-Purpose Playbook: Week 9 NFL underdog picks, fantasy football and more

Published Oct. 30, 2014 5:30 p.m. ET

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Brett Smiley

Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is (1) either a guide to many things NFL and wagering, such as survivor pools and teasers and fantasy football or (2) a road map to hell. Check back here on Thursdays for more football picks, a smattering of GIFs and occasional nonsense.

Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can e-mail me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.

UNDERDOG PICKS OF THE WEEK

First, the good: Last week the Panthers covered the 5-point spread in a 13-9 late game home loss to the Seahawks. I think we read this game correctly. (Can I call us "we"? The Royal "we"?)

Second, the cataclysmic: Ladies and gentlemen, your 2014 Chicago Bears! As 6.5-point dogs at New England this past Sunday, this happened:

I knew that GIF would be useful many times over. Those Bears, oh my! I think I'll sooner solve a Rubik's Cube using only my mouth than figure out the Bears this season. They're simply un-wagerable. Anyone who backed the Bears in that 51-23 misery-fest should get a 50% refund on their wagers from Bears owner Virginia Halas McCaskey, because that team flat-out quit and probably didn't "play" more than half that game.

Remember the soccer team that refunded its fans for pooping the bed? Yeah, do that, Chicago. Every team drops an egg here and there but last week the Bears did this:

Overall, we had a 1-1 week on the 'dogs, bringing the season mark to 7-6. Let's get back at it.

Houston Texans +2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Look at the Texans' (4-4) past four games (1-3 in that span): last week's 30-16 win over Tennessee; the 30-23 Monday Night Football loss at the Steelers, a game they gift-wrapped for the gold and back with a short-lived meltdown; a narrow 33-28 home loss to the Colts (5-3) after falling behind 24-0 in an abysmal first quarter; and an overtime loss at Dallas (6-2).

If any of those three losses go the other way, this line is probably closer to a pick'em, right? I don't like to back teams that can't get out of their own way (the Texans), but the public is still enamored with Chip Kelly's frenetic offense, as 73% of tickets are in favor of the visiting Eagles right now as 2.5-point favorites.

The Eagles' offensive line can't catch a break, as guard Todd Herremans may be down for some time after tearing a biceps muscle against the Cardinals last week. On the others side of the ball, the Eagles' secondary got their pants pulled down twice at Arizona, allowing long touchdowns of 80 and 75 yards to wideouts Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown. Point is — that secondary is a liability.

How did we get this far without mentioning J.J. Watt? Even my wife, who loves J.J. Watt (she's blushing right now), is tired of hearing about him during broadcasts. But he's so damn good — the Watt-fest is not even contrived! Offenses need to account for Dr. Disruption on every play. (Note: All women love J.J. Watt. Fact. I believe it has something do with his humble demeanor, and pheromones.)

Also, isn't it great how Watt, who slammed Titans rookie QB Zach Mettenberger for taking a pregame selfie, has become the Work Ethic and Office Attitude Policeman? That should be his Halloween costume, although Watt concededly doesn't socialize, so it's fair to assume he's not celebrating Halloween.

Anyhow, did you watch the Eagles-Cardinals game last week? Think back: How many passes did Nick Foles attempt?

The correct answer is 62!!! 62!!!

Nick Foles actually has the lowest sack rate by far in the league when under pressure among 27 qualified quarterbacks at 6.7% (he's only been sacked 7 times all season; stats via ProFootballFocus), though he's not been very accurate under pressure, completing only 50.7 percent of such passes.

Remember when Nick Foles was allergic to interceptions last year? Yeah, those days are over. He's got 9 this year against 12 touchdown passes.

(Seriously, are we still talking about this game?)

Anyhow, the Texans have Jadeveon Clowney back, and though he's a bit sore, he'll play, and the combination of him and Watt ought to be good for three blocked passes, a couple sacks and a strip-sack fumble, and some uncontrollable giddy laughter from Texans fans as they into the bye week.

P.S. Yes, I know Ryan Fitzpatrick is not very good, but Arian Foster will keep the offense moving.

New York Giants +3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (Monday Night Football)

Rule No. 1 of the Tom Coughlin-era Giants: Big Blue plays well when they're down (or the public is down on them), and they let down when they're supposed to play well.

This principle is best exemplified by their two epic Super Bowl runs as underdogs. They tend to defy expectations.

Last we saw the Giants, they got rolled by the Cowboys 31-21 in Dallas in Week 7. These Giants have issues at the linebacker position, running back (Rashad Jennings is not yet ready to return), and the offensive line — which remains an enigma. But the Colts, they have issues too — namely, the fact that they just allowed 7,312,921 passing yards to the Steelers . . . who added insult to grave injury because they were wearing those horrid bumblebee outfits.

That was last week, but that secondary is pretty porous and the Giants can take advantage if they can fend off the Colts pass rush.

I like the Giants here as a home dog, especially if you can get it past the key number 3. As of this writing, Caesar's Hilton and Stations have the Giant as 3.5-point dogs.

PICK 'EM PICK OF THE WEEK: AFC NORTH SLUGFEST

Baltimore Ravens -1 over Pittsburgh Steelers

As of Thursday afternoon, this game is either a pick 'em or the Ravens are a slight favorite, your mileage may vary.

The Ravens have been the better, more consistent team this year. They're second in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings, with the 7th-ranked offense, 5th--ranked defense, and 6th-ranked special teams.

And while the Steelers lit up the Colts secondary like Rafi playing paintball, the Steelers defense got scorched, too, for 400 passing yards.

No team has been able to slow down Steelers wideout Antonio Brown, so good luck to the Ravens there. Yes, Baltimore has not been great on the road, but these are familiar foes and Baltimore has won in Pittsburgh before (2012, 2011, 2010).

I think the Ravens (and particularly Steve Smith Sr.) are probably fuming after letting the Bengals game get away from them. This Sunday, the D gets after Roethlisberger and Baltimore grabs the AFC North by the cajones.

FANTASY FOOTBALL START 'EM AND SIT 'EM

Now is the time when I highlight some non-obvious plays. Mixed bag last week as I recommended starting Darren McFadden (59 yards rushing, 4 catches for 26 yards, fumble), Justin Hunter (4 catches for 31 yards and a touchdown), Charles Clay (ONE catch, ONE yard), and sitting Matt Ryan (228 yards, two TDs, interception) and Anthony Dixon (44 yards rushing on 22 carries). I'll give myself a B- for that effort.

Six teams on bye this week so you may need to plug and play a bit.

Start: Jeremy Hill (RB, Bengals) — Teammate Gio Bernard is battlng a hip injury and may miss the game entirely. The Bengals are going to pound the ball against the Jaguars on Sunday, and Hill will be the man. GIDDY UP.

Sit: Alex Smith (QB, Chiefs) — Sure, the Jets are a hot mess, but they still have a talented front seven that can bring pressure. I know some people may want to turn to Smith in a bye jam, but consider that he's averaging just over 200 yards a game and hasn't throw a TD to a wideout yet this entire season. Smith's shoulder is a bit banged up and I think they'll lean heavily on Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis in this spot.

Start: Bobby Rainey (RB, Buccaneers) — Don't cry for Doug Martin owners (myself included) — they asked for this trouble. They didn't trade him at the deadline and now he's nursing an ankle injury, so it looks like Rainey will be the guy. The Browns have allowed a ton of yards rushing, so it's time to Make it Rainey!!!

Sit: Darren McFadden (RB, Raiders) — Yeah, that was a one-week ticket on DMC. They're headed into Seattle and I think the Hawks are going to destroy them in all facets of the game as they seek to reassert their dominance. Seattle has allowed only 3.3 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns this season. I see McFadden ranked as a possible RB2 but I would avoid him this week if you can.

SURVIVOR POOL PLAY (OR FADE) OF THE WEEK

I recommended the Cowboys last week (but did suggest the Dolphins, too!)

I don't even know what to say anymore.

How about I offer something and you just fade me? Let's try that.

If you haven't taken the Bengals yet, they host the Jaguars this week. And the Chiefs host the New York Turnover-ers. I think one of those two picks makes sense, but you may know better than I do.

Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can e-mail me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.

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