Major League Baseball

A full accounting of the Kimbrel trade?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:21 p.m. ET

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From Ken Rosenthal’s fine column about the Padres-Braves blockbuster trade, announced Sunday...

Here’s my question, though: Should we eliminate all the “extraneous” parts?

Actually, I might include one of those prospects and the 41st draft pick among the extraneous parts.

The prospect is Jordan Paroubeck, who played well as a 19-year-old in the Rookie-level Arizona League last summer, but wasn’t among the Padres’ dozen or so best prospects. Not to suggest he doesn’t have any value, because of course he does. Just not a lot, yet.

And the 41st draft pick? The last five haven’t yet reached the majors. Chris Owings (2009) is the Diamondbacks’ new every-day second baseman. Joba Chamberlain (2006) was, and still is, I guess, Joba Chamberlain. Just in terms of Wins Above Replacement, Joba’s the third-best No. 41 pick in the history of the draft, which goes back 50 years now. The second best is Dan Plesac (1980), and the best was Fred Lynn (1973). Not to suggest that a No. 41 pick doesn’t have any value. Hey, the more draft picks the better! But at this point it does seem fairly extraneous.

The other prospect, pitcher Matt Wisler, isn’t extraneous at all. Just 22, Wisler has good stuff and held his own in Triple-A last season. He’s far, far, far from a sure thing ... but might well make a dozen-odd starts for the big-league Braves this season. He might be a league-average starter as early as 2016 – you know, if he doesn’t blow out his elbow like so many of them do, these days – and you know what a league-average starter’s worth, these days.

Sunday in a conference call, Padres general manager A.J. Preller was asked about Melvin Upton’s contract, which has his new club on the hook for around $46 million over the next three seasons. The Padres also owe Kimbrel $33 million over those same three seasons (or $46 million if the club exercises an option for 2018).

So where does Ken Rosenthal get $53.5 million? Well, as Preller explained, “There were players going back to the Braves that were also getting money.” Those players being Cameron Maybin ($16 million) and Carlos Quentin ($11 million, give or take).

So yeah, there’s some salary relief there.

But also yeah, Ken’s right: the Padres are paying a steep price. There’s the $53.5 million for three seasons of Craig Kimbrel, who’s great but still ... you know. Sixty-five innings are only so valuable. If he keeps pitching as well as he’s pitched, for all three seasons, you can argue that he’s actually worth $53.5 million. A little more even. 

But let’s say Wisler’s worth $6.5 million. Which is exceptionally conservative, since if he’s just decent, as a starter, for a couple of seasons in the majors, he’s worth far more than $6.5 million. But let’s say $6.5 million. That gets us to $60 million for those three seasons of Kimbrel. And it’s starting to get just a little harder to justify.

Not a lot harder, though. What’s $6.5 million among friends? Especially when the Padres, the Padres, are worth ... oh, maybe something like a billion dollars at this point.

There’s one more cost, though. It’s not a financial cost, at least not directly. But the Padres haven’t simply assumed Melvin Upton’s contract, which we’ve accounted for already. What nobody’s really talking about (much) is something far more fundamental, which is that the Padres have also assumed Melvin Upton.

Now, you might figure that assuming Melvin Upton is perfectly extraneous, since the Padres have a perfectly fine outfield – Melvin’s little brother in left field, Wil Myers in center, Matt Kemp in right – and Melvin won’t actually get to play much.

Maybe he won’t! Then again, in this era of seven- and -eight(!)-man bullpens, just about everybody on the roster has to play. Roster spots have an intrinsic worth on each team. It’s different for every team. But they are worth something.

There’s a term: dead money. Money you’re spending without any return. The Braves are going to spend around $13 million this year on Dan Uggla, for exactly zero return. That’s the deadest of money.

Hey, it’s good work if you can get it. And since the Braves are pretty obviously not interested in winning this season or next season, that money’s extra-irrelevant to them.

There are dead roster spots, too. We can’t say for sure that Melvin Upton won’t provide some value this year or next year or the next, and we can’t say for sure the Padres won’t simply release him at some point, thus regaining that roster spot.

We know the history of these things, though. We know that Upton’s coming off two straight awful seasons, and isn’t a good bet to become a good player again. And we know teams rarely just eat a bad contract, at least not until trying everything they can think of first.

Sunday, A.J. Preller referred to Melvin Upton’s future as a “wait-and-see-type deal,” which of course isn’t in question. The question is how long the Padres are willing to wait. And how many runs it costs them, while they're seeing.   

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