National Football League

'We Have to Win': NFC South on the Line in Week 18 Panthers-Buccaneers Matchup

Updated Jan. 2, 2026 3:41 p.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one game away from finishing off an epic collapse and entering an offseason of uncertainty.

The Carolina Panthers are closing in on their first playoff berth in eight years.

Two teams heading in opposite directions battle for the NFC South title on Saturday. But this isn’t a winner-take-all game.

The Panthers (8-8) can still clinch the division title with a loss because the Buccaneers (7-9) have to win and the Atlanta Falcons (7-9) must lose or tie the New Orleans Saints (6-10) for Tampa Bay to get in.

"First and foremost, we have to win on Saturday, so that’s the main focus," Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield said. "[We] can’t control what happens in the game Sunday, but we can control how Saturday goes, how we prepare. ... The goal is still to go out there and try and find a way to win. Obviously, then play the waiting game, but we have to take care of our business and that’s winning on Saturday."

If the Panthers win, they’ll earn their first division crown since Ron Rivera and Cam Newton led them to a 15-1 record and a Super Bowl appearance 10 years ago.

Carolina has gone through three coaching changes and started 10 different quarterbacks since their wild-card berth in 2017.

Dave Canales took over as head coach in 2024 after one season as the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers, where he helped Mayfield revive his career. He’s turned the Panthers around and Bryce Young is still developing in his third season since he was the No. 1 overall pick in 2023.

Bowles’ future

The Buccaneers have lost seven of eight and eight of 10. Most organizations would make significant changes after freefalling. Todd Bowles has led the team to three division titles in his first three seasons, but is 1-3 in the playoffs.

He’s signed through 2028, so that helps his case. It also wasn't Bowles' fault the Bucs lacked talent on defense and endured several injuries to key players.

Running Panthers

A strong running game helped propel Carolina into the playoff hunt earlier in the season and took some pressure off Young.

Rico Dowdle combined for 389 yards rushing in wins over the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins in Weeks 5 and 6, but has only surpassed 80 yards rushing once since.

The Panthers are averaging 31.8 rushing attempts in their eight wins, but only 24.1 attempts in their eight losses.

"Good things happen when you run the ball; you run the ball when good things happen," Canales said. "It works both ways, and it’s a part of who we are."

Dowdle was listed on the team’s injury report early in the week with a toe injury, but said it’s not an issue, and he’ll be fine to play.

The Bucs are seventh against the run, though they haven’t done anything well on defense lately.

Rico Dowdle has surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)

Carolina sneak

It’s not quite the Philadelphia Eagles' version of the "tush push," but the Panthers began employing their own short-yardage play last week against the Seattle Seahawks by motioning backup tight end Mitchell Evans under center to take a quarterback sneak on a fourth down attempt.

Offensive coordinator Brad Idzik wouldn’t call it a tush push, joking that "we didn’t push the tush."

But it’s something the Panthers have been working on because they don’t feel comfortable using the undersized Young in those situations.

Action Jackson

Opposing teams tend to shy away from throwing at Panthers two-time Pro Bowl pick Jaycee Horn, which means fellow cornerback Mike Jackson has seen plenty of action this season.

And he’s been up for the challenge.

Jackson leads the league with 19 passes defensed — one shy of the franchise record — and had an interception last week against Sam Darnold.

"We’ve been so blessed with the way Mike has really played these last few years and certainly exceeded the expectations of a lot of people, but did not exceed his expectations," defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero said. "When you look at the way he prepares, the extra time he spent with coach [Jonathan] Cooley in the meeting rooms, this guy is as dialed-in a player as I’ve ever been around in that position."

Reporting by The Associated Press.

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