Los Angeles Rams

Rams vs. 49ers: 5 Reasons San Francisco Wins in Week 1

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The San Francisco 49ers open up their 2016 NFL season with a prime-time matchup against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. Niner Noise looks at five reasons the red and gold win over their NFC West division rival.

November 2, 2014; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) runs against St. Louis Rams free safety Rodney McLeod (23) during the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The Rams defeated the 49ers 13-10. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers get the luxury of kicking off their 2016 campaign at home against their NFC West rivals, the Los Angeles Rams.

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Oh, and it happens on Monday Night Football.

While not much is expected out of this Niners team under head coach Chip Kelly in 2016, the 49ers at least have one matchup on their calendar in which they could pull off a victory.

So let’s look at five reasons why this happens.

The Rams opened up as 2.5-point favorites, according to Odds Shark. And while Los Angeles’ defense remains a force, the Rams offense looks nowhere near improved over what it was a season ago.

Yes, running back Todd Gurley is a player to watch. But the 49ers can counter with another standout runner of their own, tailback Carlos Hyde.

But what other advantages lead San Francisco to a Week 1 victory?

Let’s break down why the Niners are able to upend their foes from Southern California.

September 14, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers players run onto the field before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5: 49ers Have a Five-Game Week 1 Winning Streak

The 49ers own Week 1, even with last year’s abysmal 5-11 record, and haven’t lost a season opener since 2010.

Niner Noise chronicled San Francisco’s winning streak to kick off seasons dating back to 2011. That year, the Niners upended the Seattle Seahawks. In 2012 and 2013, the Green Bay Packers fell victim to San Francisco. 2014 saw a road victory over the Dallas Cowboys go in favor of the 49ers.

And, of course, former head coach Jim Tomsula’s Niners routed the Minnesota Vikings at home on Monday Night Football.

Let’s pay attention to the last comparison.

The Vikings are, far and away, a better team than the Rams. And this year’s 49ers should be vastly improved over what was fielded under Tomsula. At least in the trenches where it matters most.

Week 1 games frequently generate overreaction, which means upsets often take place.

So look for the 49ers to keep this streak going. If they do, they’ll still be atop the leader board for Week 1 wins in a row.

The @Broncos have won 5 straight Week 1 games, tied with the @nyjets and @49ers for the longest active streak pic.twitter.com/ajHE6k6F5P

— ProFootballReference (@pfref) September 9, 2016

Next: Paltry Rams Offense

January 3, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; St. Louis Rams quarterback Case Keenum (17) passes the football against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4: The Rams Inept Offense

OK, so the Rams have star running back Todd Gurley carrying the ball.

But he’ll have to do almost everything if Los Angeles expects to put together any sort of offensive rhythm.

Keep this in mind, Case Keenum beat out No. 1 overall draft pick Jared Goff for the starting quarterback role. Keenum posted a better-than 90.0 passer rating just once in 2015 (Week 14 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and has a lackluster 77.1 career passer rating on the road.

No one on the Rams posted more than 700 receiving yards last season. And if you thought the Niners offense was bad a year ago — it was — Los Angeles’ was nearly identical.

The Rams finished 2015 No. 29 overall in points scored (280) and dead last in total yards gained (4,761).

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert isn’t a vast improvement over Keenum. And neither is the San Francisco receiver corps.

But in this sort of contest, we have to give an edge to the home team.

Even if both teams’ offensive output isn’t worthy of a clinic.

Jan 3, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) is tackled by St. Louis Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson (22) after making a catch in the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3: Rams Don’t Have the Best Secondary

If there ever was a game in which the 49ers questionable passing offense was to take advantage of a less-than stellar secondary, Week 1 is it.

Few doubt the Rams have a tremendous front seven on defense. But Los Angeles’ defensive backfield is vulnerable, especially after losing cornerback Janoris Jenkins this offseason.

The Rams gave up 4,065 passing yards a year ago, which ranked 23rd in the NFL.

And while L.A.’s pass rush is formidable, head coach Chip Kelly’s offense is predicated on quick releases and not allowing pass-rushers to converge. This was evident during the preseason, as San Francisco gave up just six sacks — tied for fourth lowest in the league.

Oh, and the revamped 49ers offensive line should allow more time too. We’ll get to this unit in a second.

True, cornerback Trumaine Johnson is a force. At least according to Pro Football Focus:

But his supporting cast isn’t great. And nickel corner E.J. Gaines (thigh) didn’t practice during the week, per CBS Sports.

So maybe wide receiver Jeremy Kerley winds up making an impact out of the slot. And Kelly loves to use three-wide receiver sets.

NFL: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

No. 2: 49ers Offensive Line Outplays Rams Front-Seven Defense

If there’s one NFL cliche that’s actually true, it’s the thought games are won or lost in the trenches.

No one should question how good Los Angeles’ defensive line is. All we need to do is mention defensive tackle Aaron Donald — and his 11 sacks last year — as reason enough to be fearful of this unit.

Defensive end Williams Hayes, who had five sacks in 2015, could also be in line for a bigger year. And it wouldn’t be shocking to see fellow DE Robert Quinn have a bounce-back season as well.

Two things work against the Rams favor though.

We’ve touched on head coach Chip Kelly’s offense and how quick releases are essential to avoiding pressure. The uptempo nature of Kelly’s approach works in favor of San Francisco as well. Even the best defenses can tire out if Kelly’s offense is moving the ball adequately enough.

But if the Niners offensive line was anything like it was a year ago (ranked 27th by Pro Football Focus), none of this would benefit the Niners.

Gone are the likes of O-linemen Erik Pears and Jordan Devey. Center Marcus Martin will be on the bench.

The emergence of right tackle Trent Brown, who drew praise from Denver Broncos star pass-rusher Von Miller, even pushed former first-round pick Anthony Davis inside to guard.

Hey, San Francisco’s O-line might be sneaky good in 2016. And this might be just enough to ensure Los Angeles’ defense doesn’t establish itself in Week 1.

Sep 14, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) dives for a touchdown with a block from quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1: RB Carlos Hyde Has a Repeat of Week 1 Last Year

A year ago on Monday Night Football, running back Carlos Hyde rumbled for 168 yards and two touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings.

Yes, Week 1 contests can be a bit of an anomaly. Hyde never replicated that sort of effort again in 2015. And a foot injury ended up being the big story for Hyde’s would-be breakout year.

Hyde is slimmer though. And he is also cleared to play following a concussion he suffered during the preseason.

Speaking of the preseason, head coach Chip Kelly’s squad led the league with 737 yards. This was nearly 100 yards more than the second place Tennessee Titans (644). While preseason stats don’t tell us much, this number does indicate Kelly will feature his rushing attack early and often.

This means a lot of Hyde.

Los Angeles was in the middle of the pack in average rush yards allowed per carry last year (4.0). Factoring in Hyde’s elusiveness rating, per Pro Football Focus, one can see why Hyde might have a repeat of his performance a year ago.

PFF’s Dan Schneier wrote:

He forced 35 missed tackles on 126 total touches — this time getting more involved in the passing game — and compiled a 2.83 Yco/Att average. There wasn’t a single running back who finished with more carries and a higher elusive rating than Hyde, and of all the running backs with at least 50 carries, only Marshawn Lynch bested him.