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NFL odds Week 3: Roll with the Raiders and Chiefs, other best bets
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
How was that for the second week of NFL football!?
It looked like March Madness on the gridiron with all the comebacks and buzzer beaters from last week. Baltimore and Oakland blew huge fourth-quarter leads, the Cowboys won a close one without Dak and the New York Giants are 2-0. Are you ready for some football? At this point, does the question even need to be asked?
No other sport brings the instant must-watch factor that football brings. On top of this late-game excitement, it's only three weeks into the season, and we are already talking about playoff implications.
The league gets real very quickly, so let's not belabor this any longer. Here are my best bets for Week 3 (with odds via FOX Bet)!
Raiders @ Titans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Call me crazy, but this feels like an early elimination game in the AFC playoff race. Both teams made the playoffs last year, but both sit 0-2 after choking away games in the fourth quarter — the Raiders at home vs. Arizona and the Titans at home against the Giants in Week 1.
Tennessee is an underdog at home under Mike Vrabel, which is usually a good bet, but can you take this defense to hold up against Davante Adams and Darren Waller? Buffalo's offense scored 34 points in two and a half quarters on Monday, and the starters sat out the fourth. The Raiders could have that kind of success. If Hunter Renfrow doesn't fumble in overtime Sunday, the Raiders are probably 1-1, and this spread is -3.5.
When it comes to Las Vegas, the one thing to watch for is fatigue. The Raiders were on the field for 78 plays against the Cardinals and now travel across the country for a 1 pm kickoff.
The Titans were gashed in Week 1 on the ground by Saquon Barkley, so there's a chance Josh Jacobs gets loose for a big game. And I expect Adams to top his 2-catch, 12-yard performance from last week by the end of the first quarter.
The Titans have looked woefully inept in all phases of the game through two weeks, and I'm rolling with the chalk here.
PICK: Raiders (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points
Chiefs @ Colts (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Colts have to be the worst team in the NFL through two games. After a tie on the road against the Texans, they were blanked in Jacksonville. As if things could get worse, the 2-0 Chiefs arrive with extra rest, and Patrick Mahomes has never lost a game in a domed stadium.
It's a scary prospect getting the Chiefs track stars indoors, and the only chance the Colts will have is keeping Mahomes on the sideline with a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor. With Kansas City's second-leading tackler, linebacker Willie Gay, suspended for four games, there could be chances to exploit the Chiefs on the ground. It's unclear if third-round rookie Leo Chenal will start in his place.
Be careful betting against teams that were just shutout — teams off a shutout loss are 25-9 against the spread (ATS) the following week over the last seven seasons.
The injury report will be critical for Indy. Matt Ryan was without his top receiver (Michael Pittman) in Jacksonville, and their best defensive player (Shaq Leonard) has yet to play this season.
The look-ahead line for this was -3, but after the Colts were shut out, it ballooned to -6.5. It'll touch seven, and there will be buyback on the Colts.
Side note: Frank Reich might be coaching for his job in this one.
If you can get -6.5, take it, but it's not a bet for me at -7. KC will be in many teasers, too.
PICK: Chiefs (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points
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Ravens @ Patriots (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
It isn't often you ring up 473 yards of offense, put up 8.8 ypp, win the turnover battle by +2, and lead by 21 points in the fourth quarter at home … and lose.
Chalk it up as a highly random result, with Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald calling a horrible second half, resulting in massive chunk plays against two good CBs, Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters.
New England does not have speed at receiver — Miami's strength. I'm surprised the total hasn't moved because the Patriots are not built to hang in shootouts. And their run defense has yet to permit a touchdown or a 20-plus yard carry.
The Patriots' best hope of stealing a Wild Card bid is scratching and clawing out low scoring, 17-14 types of games where Mac Jones doesn't make mistakes and the defense — led by edge Matthew Judon — holds teams to field goals, not touchdowns.
Lamar Jackson hasn't faced the Patriots since Cam Newton was their QB in 2020, and in a game played in a monsoon, the Ravens — who were favored by a TD on the road — lost, 23-17. Look for a similar outcome in this one as the Pats try to muck it up.
PICK: Under 43 total points scored by both teams combined
Bengals @ Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
This game is a rematch from last year, when the Jets rode third-string QB Mike White to a stirring 34-31 win on Halloween. White passed for 405 yards and three TDs, including two in the final five minutes. From a gambling perspective, the Jets won outright as 11.5-point underdogs!
Cincinnati can't protect Joe Burrow (again), as he has absorbed 13 sacks in two games, and their tackles have gotten abused by T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons. As a result, the Bengals had zero explosive plays (20-plus yards) last week vs. Dallas. But, the Jets don't have an edge rusher of that quality. Coach Robert Saleh will have to dial up blitzes, as his front four can't get much pressure (30th in pressure rate). So that is one big matchup to watch in this game.
The Bengals have trailed by double digits in the first half of the last four games dating back to last year's playoffs. Eventually, Cincinnati will get it together … right? That's a discussion for another day.
The Jets' safeties have been atrocious, getting roasted for three deep scores against Lamar Jackson in Week 1. The Bengals have faced two bad QBs — Cooper Rush and Mitchell Trubisky — and now they face Joe Flacco. The game feels like it has shootout potential, as the Jets' rookie skill players made a massive leap from Week 1 to 2.
The total has already climbed from 43 to 45. You missed the best number, but over 45 is the pick.
PICK: Over 45 total points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
