National Football League

NFL odds: Buffalo Bills the new favorites to win the Super Bowl

Updated Oct. 13, 2021 5:05 p.m. ET

With Week 5 of the NFL season in the books, the contenders to win the Super Bowl are starting to differentiate themselves from the pretenders. One of those front-runners looked dominant in a primetime spot, setting the rest of the league on notice.

In the Sunday Night Football showcase game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, Josh Allen & Co. left no doubt as to who the new big dogs in the AFC were.

Buffalo dominated the game from kick-off, defeating Kansas City 38-20. Allen finished with 315 yards and three touchdowns through the air, while adding 59 yards and a score on the ground.

Once the game concluded, the oddsmakers at FOX Bet also took notice, making the Bills the new favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the movers and shakers at FOX Bet.

Before the season started, the Chiefs were the overwhelming favorites to win the Super Bowl at FOX Bet, at +500 (meaning a $10 bet would win you $60 total). With Patrick Mahomes & Co. off to a slow start, their odds have now lengthened to +750.

The Bills, who started the year at +1200 to win it all, are now the favorites on the odds board. Allen’s squad currently sits at +550 to win it all (bet $10 to win $65 total).

The oddsmakers at FOX Bet immediately made the move following Sunday night’s dominating performance.

"We made the move because of how impressive Josh Allen and the Bills were on top of their previous performances," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor said. "In a division that seems to be lacking any competition, they have a clear path to not just the AFC East but to a No. 1 seed that is as valuable as it ever has been."

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Point differential, a key statistic when sorting out winning and losing teams, says the Bills are for real as well. Buffalo has a league-leading whopping plus-108 point differential. For reference, the next closest team, undefeated Arizona, comes in at plus-62.

The Chiefs are now in fourth place in the AFC West, two games behind the upstart Los Angeles Chargers. Looking forward, they are effectively three games back from the Bills (tiebreaker), and more importantly, the biggest game of all would now take place in Buffalo.

"If there’s a place you don’t want to go play in January as a road team, Buffalo has to be up there," Blangsted-Barnor explained. "With the Chiefs now sitting at 2-3, they’ve all but given up the chance to have the playoffs run through Kansas City."

While the Bills are on their way up, a few teams are on their way down, most notably the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is also the biggest faller in the odds, and understandably so, as the team has now lost star quarterback Russell Wilson to injury for the foreseeable future. Seattle's odds to win the Super Bowl have lengthened drastically and now sit at a grim +6000.

As for who's leading the way for the NFL MVP award, look no further than Sunday night’s star. Allen is now the favorite to win NFL MVP at FOX Bet, sitting at +450. He started the season at +1100 but has catapulted up the odds since Sunday.

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So, is there a team you should wager some money on right now to win the Super Bowl? FOX Sports' very own betting expert Jason McIntyre sees betting value on America's Team, the Dallas Cowboys (+1400 at FOX Bet).

"The AFC has the toughest road to the Super Bowl, featuring the Bills, Chargers, Browns, Ravens, and yes, the Chiefs, plus a slew of the MVP candidates who will surely be there in December (Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes)," McIntyre explained. "The Bills right now look like the best team in the AFC, but the Browns are built to beat them with a formidable running game, and the AFC playoffs are absolutely stacked.

"I'd look to the NFC, where the Cowboys are by far the class of their division, and Dallas can't be ruled out of maybe snagging home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The top teams in the NFC don't have impenetrable defenses this year (Green Bay, LA Rams, Tampa Bay), and the last undefeated team has a QB and coach who have never been to the playoffs."

Are the Cowboys worth a sprinkle at 14-1? With the season being 17 games this year, these odds are sure to remain fluid. But with the road to the Super Bowl presumably going through Buffalo, look for the Bills to stay atop the leaderboard when it comes to the odds of winning the Lombardi trophy.

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