Fantasy Football: Start, sit advice for Packers-Vikings meeting in Week 16
The Green Bay Packers are in championship form at the perfect time to win you a fantasy title.If you’re reading this, congratulations. You’ve made it to the fantasy championship game, but likely have some tough decisions to make regarding your Packers and Vikings.These are two teams trending in different directions. After flying out of the gates to a 5-0 start, Minnesota has gone 2-7 in its past nine games, the Vikings’ fantasy production following it out the door.Green Bay offers a different story, however. It was apparent early in the four-game losing skid that the Packers offense was finding its feet after a slow start. Now we’re associating Aaron Rodgers with the MVP award and potentially a pair of 1,000-yard receivers.No run game? Don’t tell Ty Montgomery, who shredded the Chicago defense single-handedly a week ago and will look to do the same against Minnesota.This is another crucial game for the Packers. A loss could end their hopes of a division title, should the Lions defeat the Cowboys.Green Bay can help you win a fantasy title. Let’s break down each position group ahead of Saturday’s game.Next: Quarterbacks Jan 3, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) rushes with the football during the first quarter as Minnesota Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks (54) defends at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (START): Zero. That’s the number of times Aaron Rodgers has gone consecutive games without throwing a touchdown in his career. There’s no need to overreact after Rodgers was held score-less against Chicago.
It was by no fault of his own. Davante Adams dropped two simple touchdown passes in the end zone, leaving Ty Montgomery and Christine Michael to rack up three rushing touchdowns between them.
Need more reassurance? Rodgers has scored at least 15 fantasy points in eight of his past nine games, surpassing the 20-point mark seven times in that span. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns with no interceptions in his past five games.
Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs over the past two weeks. Start Rodgers with confidence at home.
Sam Bradford (SIT): Bradford is the No. 26 QB over the past four weeks and shouldn’t go anywhere near your lineup.
Green Bay’s defense has improved in recent weeks, the unit allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to QBs in their past two games. Bradford has failed to score double-digit fantasy points in three of his past five games.
Do you need any more reasons to not start him this week?
Dec 18, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Ty Montgomery (88) runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Green Bay won 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Running backs
Ty Montgomery (START): As I wrote earlier in the week, Montgomery can win you a fantasy championship. His breakout arrives just in time for the most important time on the fantasy calendar.
Minnesota has allowed the 14th-most rushing yards over the past four weeks, which bodes well for Green Bay’s ground game.
After a 162-yard, two-touchdown performance last week, Montgomery is the clear leader in the Packers’ backfield. He’s an RB2 with upside.
Christine Michael (SIT): Michael continues to get touches, but with the way Montgomery is playing, there’s a cap on Michael’s ceiling. It took a 42-yard touchdown run to add any relevance to his fantasy stat line last week. More alarming was the fact he only got four carries all afternoon.
Adrian Peterson (SIT): It’s possible you’ve hung onto Peterson all season long, or used an IR spot on him. Maybe you picked him up a few weeks ago to stash for the playoffs.
Be warned: Peterson brings tremendous risk with him. In three games this season, he’s averaged just 1.9 yards per carry and has more fumbles than touchdowns. He registered just 0.80 points on his return against a bad Colts defense.
Green Bay is No. 7 against opposing RBs over the past four weeks. Peterson is too risky a play to trust in your fantasy championship.
Jan 3, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (18) rushes with the football during the third quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Minnesota won 20-13. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Wide receivers
Jordy Nelson (START): Nelson is one of fantasy’s most reliable performers on a weekly basis. Expect him to have another solid outing this week, even in a tough matchup. Jordy posted 73 yards and a touchdown versus Minnesota in Week 2, and is playing at a much higher level than earlier in the year.
Davante Adams (START): If you survived Adams’ Week 15 dud, I can understand why you’d struggle to trust him this week. But bear in mind Adams dropped two easy catches in the end zone last week. As frustrating as it may be, it happens. Expect a better performance versus Minnesota.
Randall Cobb (SIT): If you played Cobb last week, I’m shocked you survived his playoff bagel. Cobb hasn’t posted double digit fantasy points since Week 7. He can’t be started.
Stefon Diggs (FLEX): Diggs’ fantasy production has dipped of late, but this could be the day he gets it going. I like the fact he’s had at least five targets in every game this season, with at least seven targets in five of his past seven games.
Diggs dominated the Packers in Week 2 with 182 yards and a touchdown. Consider him a low-end flex play with upside.
Nov 22, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph (82) breaks a tackle from Green Bay Packers safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (21) during the third quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. The Packers defeated the Vikings 30-15. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Tight ends
Jared Cook (SIT): Cook is a risky play and shouldn’t be anywhere near lineups. He posted a solid 85-yard performance at Chicago last week, but until he puts up consistent numbers, it’s impossible to trust the former Ram.
If you’re looking for a better streaming option, two names worth noting are Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz and San Diego’s Hunter Henry. If Ertz has slipped under the radar on your waiver wire, he’s worth a flier.
Henry gets the Browns next week. He’s caught a touchdown in four of his past five games and offers a safe floor.
Kyle Rudolph (START): Rudolph is quietly the TE6 on the year, and enters a good matchup here. Green Bay allows a healthy 8.27 points per week to opposing TEs.
Rudolph has at least eight targets in five of his past six games and offers a safe floor at a volatile position. For what it’s worth, he found the end zone in the Week 2 meeting with the Packers in Minnesota.
Consider Rudolph a mid-TE1 this week.
Sep 18, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford (8) is pressured by Green Bay Packers linebacker Clay Matthews (52) during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
D/ST
Packers (START): The Green Bay D/ST is averaging 11.5 fantasy points over the past month. Yes, that’s the Packers I’m talking about. In the same span, Minnesota is allowing eight points per game to opposing defenses.
The Colts D/ST just posted 18 fantasy points on the road at Minnesota. I like the Packers as a strong streaming option this week. The Vikings have fallen off a cliff, and turned the ball over three times last week.
If you’re streaming defenses, Green Bay is worth a shot.
Vikings (SIT): Minnesota still ranks No. 3 among D/STs on the season, but have just 15 points total over the past four weeks. They posted -1.00 points against the Colts last week. That won’t cut it in the fantasy championship.
If you survived with the Vikings’ poor performance last week, now’s the time to move on. The Packers are allowing the fewest points to opposing defenses (1.50) over the past month.
The way both teams are playing, and the fact it’s at Lambeau, scares me off the Minnesota D/ST this week. You’ve relied on them this far, but now is the time to scan the waiver wire for a better option.
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