2025 NFL Week 16 Picks: Best Bets for Every Game — Will's Wagers

Only three weeks remain in the NFL regular season, as Week 16 kicks off with the best game on the slate — Rams-Seahawks on Thursday night.

The Seahawks look to avenge a Week 11 loss to the Rams, this time in Seattle. Not only does the NFC West title hang in the balance, but the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC is up for grabs, too. Also, a Rams win all but clinches the NFL MVP award for their quarterback, Matthew Stafford. 

With everything that’s on the line, it’s easy to forget that a Seahawks win actually gives the 49ers a chance to win the 1-seed if they were to win out. 

As always, let’s take a look at every game and find a best bet for each one.

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THURSDAY, DEC. 18

RAMS @ SEAHAWKS

1st quarter Under 7.5 points scored by both teams combined

Sounds like a wet and windy night is expected for this NFC West showdown. With Rams wide receiver Davante Adams expected to miss the game, as well as Seahawks key offensive lineman Charles Cross, I think we see a very slow start for each offense. 

SATURDAY, DEC. 20

EAGLES @ COMMANDERS

Under 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

The Eagles are the ideal Under team right now. Last week, they had a 17-play drive that ate up more than 11 minutes, and it resulted in zero points. While they did beat up on the hapless Raiders, they have had lots of issues creating big plays on offense, while maintaining a very stout defense. These are all ingredients for another Under.

PACKERS @ BEARS

Over 46.5 points scored by both teams combined

These teams met just two weeks ago, with the Packers winning 28-21 and that was after averaging a robust 6.5 yards per play on offense. Now, we get a rematch and a pretty mild weather day in Chicago. No Micah Parsons hurts the Packers defense here. I like the Over. 

SUNDAY, DEC. 21

BILLS @ BROWNS

Browns +10.5

The Bills come into this game off the high of beating the Patriots and keeping their hopes of an AFC East title alive. But is this perhaps a let-down spot after a big win? The Browns play good defense at home, and the Bills struggle to stop the run, a good recipe for a double-digit underdog. 

BUCCANEERS @ PANTHERS

Chuba Hubbard Over 31.5 rushing yards

The backup running back for the Panthers has inched his way toward more usage recently, including a 17-carry performance in Week 13 against the Rams. While he had a quiet day in last week’s loss to the Saints, starter Rico Dowdle only averaged three yards per carry as well. Hubbard averages 39 yards per game. I like his Over.

CHARGERS @ COWBOYS

Chargers team total Under 24 points

The Chargers continue to find ways to win games, but with their beaten and battered offensive line, they aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard. The Cowboys' defense has regressed in the last couple of weeks, but the Chargers being held to under 24 points is a good bet.

CHIEFS @ TITANS

Titans +3

The Chiefs have been eliminated, and Patrick Mahomes is out as he recovers from a torn ACL. After all of these years of being in the playoffs, are the Chiefs really going to be motivated for a meaningless game against the Titans in Tennessee? I think the Titans beat the deflated former champs.

VIKINGS @ GIANTS

Vikings to record first sack

The Vikings are a blitz-heavy defense, and the Giants have a rookie quarterback who might struggle to diagnose some of the pressures that experienced defensive coordinator Brian Flores deploys. I like the Vikings to get an early sack. 

BENGALS @ DOLPHINS

Darren Waller Over 27.5 receiving yards 

It will be Quinn Ewers starting at quarterback for the Dolphins, and I expect the rookie to look for his resurgent tight end in this matchup. The Bengals notoriously struggle to defend tight ends, and Waller is coming off a game where he caught seven passes for 66 yards with a pair of touchdowns.

JETS @ SAINTS

Jets team total Under 17.5

The Saints have played hard and have played well for a team that many thought could be the worst team in the NFL. That’s more than can be said about the Jets, who have been awful and now have rookie Brady Cook at quarterback. The Jets cracking 18 points is asking a lot. 

JAGUARS @ BRONCOS

Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions 

A possible AFC title game preview? In this wacky NFL season, it’s possible these teams meet again in late January. As far as this matchup, the Broncos' defense is elite at generating pressure, and Lawrence will be under duress throughout. I like him to throw at least one to the other team. 

FALCONS @ CARDINALS

Falcons -2.5

The Falcons have extra rest, having not played since last Thursday. They have no incentive to lose, considering the Rams own the Falcons’ first-round draft pick in April. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are ravaged by injuries and are a far cry from the team that nearly started 3-0 back in September. 

STEELERS @ LIONS

Lions -7

The Lions desperately need a victory to stay in the NFC playoff hunt. The Steelers’ win on Monday night against the Dolphins sets up a scenario where the Steelers will win the AFC North as long as they beat the Ravens in Week 18. They can clinch it before, but with a short week, they will be on the road against a more talented and more motivated Lions squad. I think the hungry Lions roll.

RAIDERS @ TEXANS

Raiders +14.5

I know the Raiders have been dreadful, while the Texans are surging. But it was just two weeks ago that the Raiders played the now 12-2 Broncos, and the line was 7.5 — a game the Raiders only lost by seven and covered. A 7-point adjustment here doesn’t feel justified, even though the Broncos were on the road and the Texans are at home. With a total set at 37.5 and not many points expected, 14.5 is a huge spread. 

PATRIOTS @ RAVENS

Keaton Mitchell Over 22.5 rushing yards

The change-up to the Derrick Henry fastball, the Ravens’ back-up running back has come on strong recently. Mitchell has gotten 14 carries for 142 yards over the last two games. Expect the productive performances to earn him more opportunities this week.

MONDAY, DEC. 22

49ERS @ COLTS

Colts team total Under 19.5 points scored

It was almost a storybook ending for Philip Rivers, who did just enough to give the Colts a lead with under a minute to play last week against the Seahawks. But Seattle won on a last-second field goal, and despite being competitive, the Colts were severely limited on offense. Scoring 20 or more with the recently un-retired Rivers is asking a lot.

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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