With Wizards offense turned up to 11, John Wall is a top-10 player
“Hello. It’s July 1, 2016, and John Wall is widely recognized as the second-best point guard in basketball.”
Briefly ignoring that it came from the future; is this an impossible sentence? Can you envision a reality where the Washington Wizards deploy a top-seven or eight player? A world where Wall has leaped ahead of Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul?
Is this totally ridiculous? Or is it totally plausible?
If you believe the latter, welcome aboard the Wall bandwagon. You’re all in on Washington’s purposeful left turn from bumper-to-bumper traffic onto a free and clear five-lane highway -- and you should be.
The indications were there, if you wanted to see them. Great players will thrive in spite of their setting, and Wall made the last two All-Star games despite steering a system that ranked in the bottom half of offenses in each of the past two years. Now, the governor is disengaged, and the Eastern Conference is forced to deal with a completely different beast. Washington is deploying a much faster brand of basketball, one suited to Wall's talents and tastes. And so far (mandatory disclaimer: it’s early!), he's on track for a career year.
Still, for both Wall and Washington, redefining their entire style will take time. Only eight teams are getting a higher percentage of their points from long 2s, but that doesn’t mean Washington’s new look isn’t the perfect backdrop for its star floor general’s unique skill set.
Yes, Wall’s still launching as many contested mid-range jumpers as last year, but the percentage of his shots that are 3-pointers is nearly twice as high. He and the team are making clear strides to force the issue and run opponents into the ground, and defenses are having to reach out and try to slow Wall as he blazes by them. As a result, he's getting to the line at an absurd rate --through the season’s first three games, his free-throw rate (.600) was higher than James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins, Jimmy Butler and Anthony Davis.
The Wizards are the sixth fastest team in the league, with a top-10 offense that makes better use of the fast break than anybody else. Regardless of whether the other team makes or misses their shot, Wall immediately treats every defender in his path like a traffic cone on his way to the paint.
Only the Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors are averaging more field goals with between 22 and 18 seconds on the shot clock (what SportVU understandably deems to be “very early”). Basically none of their 3s are contested, and they already look like a well-oiled machine flowing from one end of the court to the other. According to Synergy Sports, 18.2 percent of Washington’s possessions are in transition (third highest in the league) and they’re averaging 1.22 points per possession (sixth most) with an incredible 8.6 percent turnover frequency (third best).
(The sample size is especially small here, but lineup data suggests that Washington’s offense most resembles a nightmare with Jared Dudley at power forward beside the other four starters.)
It’s all so devastating, and Wall’s vision -- while racing at warp speed -- is the tastiest ingredient. His typically astronomical assist numbers are relatively down (only 8.3 per game, what a slacker), but heading into Wednesday night’s showdown against the San Antonio Spurs, Wall led the entire league in passes made and received per game, free-throw assists (passes that directly lead to at least one point at the charity stripe) and potential assists (passes that lead to made and missed shots).
He’s still relentless and aggressive, but he appears even more direct with what he wants to do. Early on in Washington’s loss against the New York Knicks, Wall called for Bradley Beal to run off a stagger screen. Jose Calderon sniffed it out, though, and the ball wound up in Wall's hands 30 feet from the basket with the shot clock winding down. Instead of letting the play go stale, dribbling around and clanking a jumper off the rim, Wall immediately pounced, forced the defense to collapse, and found an open Marcin Gortat for a quick baby hook. (Gortat has yet to make a basket this season without Wall on the floor, by the way.)
His individual offense is already incredible and will only improve as all his teammates get a better feel for their nightly up-and-down objective. But unlike many of his elite contemporaries, Wall still commits himself to the other end. His offensive responsibility is huge, yet he's somehow found enough energy to block nine shots (including one from Kawhi Leonard) and steal the ball 10 times so far in 2015-16.
After making his first All-Defensive team last season, Wall’s work on that side of the ball continues to separate him from all his colleagues. On the, ball he's a terror. But Wall might be even better shadowing his man and denying the pass. The opponent's best player can't beat you if he doesn’t have the ball, and it throws a wrench in the offense’s timing and intent. No perimeter defender is more feared zoning up on the weak side, needing to guard two 3-point shooters at once. Wall can cover so much ground in the blink of an eye that any pass seems too risky, and he knows how to play the percentages and which player demands the harder close-out. What you'd call "gambling" for another point guard is just "terrifying harassment" by Wall.
The Wizards aren’t perfect. Their normal starting lineup has struggled to score, and on the whole they can stand to launch more 3s than they are. But Wall’s subtle improvement on both ends has raised his ceiling and the team’s expectations. Washington is on board with a style that suits Wall and gives him every opportunity to rip his opponents apart. The ride won’t always be smooth. Unlike prior seasons, however, the only thing holding Wall back now is himself.
