NASCAR Cup Series

Who's hot and who's not heading into the Chase

Published Sep. 11, 2014 12:00 p.m. ET

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Tom Jensen

Statistics sometimes wind up being the exceptions that prove the rules.

Case in point: Three years ago, Tony Stewart came into the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup as cold as cold could be, having gone winless in NASCAR's 26-race regular season, during which time he posted a measly three top-five finishes. Stewart himself went as far as to say he was wasting a space in the Chase because he was running so badly.

When the Chase started, Stewart won the first race at Chicagoland Speedway. Then he won the second Chase race at New Hampshire. He would go to win five of the Chase races that season and capture his third Sprint Cup championship in a thrilling battle with Carl Edwards that went down to the final lap at Homestead.

There's nothing that says the same type of thing couldn't happen again this year. Maybe Kyle Busch or Aric Almirola or Greg Biffle suddenly gets red hot and lights it up during the Chase. History suggests that's unlikely, but it's possible.

With all that sad, drivers definitely want to be hot coming into the Chase. Here's a look at who's hot and who's not heading into Chicagoland Speedway and Sunday's first Chase race:

HOT: JOEY LOGANO -- If you look at Logano's stats, he's the hottest driver in the Cup series right now. In the last five races, Logano has one victory, two top fives and four finishes of sixth or better. His average finish over the last five races is 6.0, far and away the best in the field. This well could be his year, as both Team Penske Fords are exceptionally strong right now and the team is confident.

NOT: KYLE BUSCH -- The good news for Busch is that for five races in a row, he's finished better than he did the week before.  The bad news is that over that same period, his average finish is a dreadful 29.0 and his best finish was 14th at Richmond. Right now, none of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas has the speed of either the Team Penske Fords or the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets.

HOT: KEVIN HARVICK  -- A switch in pit crews this week just might be the thing that vaults Harvick to his first championship and a second team title for Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick's average finish in the last five races is 8.8, with four finishes of 11th or better and no finishes outside the top 20. That's the type of consistency that leads to championships.

NOT: ARIC ALMIROLA -- Realistically, few people expect Almirola to contend for the title. The Richard Petty Motorsports driver made it into the Chase by virtue of winning at Daytona in July, but in the eight races since then, his best finishes were ninth and Atlanta and 10th at Richmond. Then again, those were also his two most recent finishes, so he's picked up his results.

HOT: BRAD KESELOWSKI -- A lot of folks are pointing at Keselowski to win a second title and with good reason: He won at Richmond, finished second to teammate Logano at Bristol two weeks before that and was running fourth at Atlanta when he got taken out in a crash. Having won a title in 2012, Keselowski knows how to race in the Chase and will be tough to beat.

NOT: KASEY KAHNE -- Yes, Kahne scored a surprise victory at Atlanta to make it into the Chase. But even with that victory, his average finish in the last five races is 16.2. Maybe the Atlanta victory will help Kahne and the team get better, but for most of the season, they've consistently been the weakest of the four Hendrick cars.

HOT: JEFF GORDON -- The four-time champion has been inconsistent of late, but he's been fast, as evidenced by his victory at Michigan and runner-up finish at Michigan. There are a lot of things a team can do to improve, but without fast race cars, you're not going to win. And Gordon has very fast race cars at the moment, along with a ton of confidence in his team.

NOT: AJ ALLMENDINGER  -- Seeing Allmendinger win on the Watkins Glen road course was one of the feel-good stories of the year. In the four races since then, though, his average finish was 22.5, with a best of 13th at Michigan. The 'Dinger and his JTG Daugherty Racing team overachieved to make it into the Chase.

HOT: JIMMIE JOHNSON -- As seems to happen every year, Johnson had a prolonged summer slump, but is showing signs of life as the Chase approaches. In the last four races, Johnson has an average finish of 6.25, the kind of number that puts him square into contention for a seventh championship. Besides, only a fool would discount the six-time champion's capabilities at this point in the season.

NOT: GREG BIFFLE -- Over the last five races, Biffle's average finish of 11.4 is actually pretty good. But during that time, his best finish is eighth, and he has only one top-five finish in his last 10 starts. Biffle could be one of the drivers in danger of making an early Chase exit.

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