NASCAR Cup Series

What surprise awaits this weekend?

Published Mar. 3, 2011 12:00 a.m. ET

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If we have learned anything from the short 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup season to date, it is 1) expect the unexpected and 2) Kyle Busch is the man to beat.

Let’s start with the unexpected.

In Daytona, 20-year old Trevor Bayne won in his first-ever Daytona 500 start — that hadn’t been done since 1959, the first Daytona 500, which had to have a first-time winner — driving for a team that hadn’t won in 10 years, the Wood Brothers. His first surprise was getting the ride, his second was a third-place time trial, the next was Jeff Gordon drafting with the rookie for much of the 150-mile qualifying preliminary race (veterans don’t draft with rookies) and then there was his stunning upset over the veterans in America’s biggest race.

Who would have predicted any of that?

Then, NASCAR’s traveling circus went to Phoenix, the desert, where it poured rain the night before the race and Gordon won for the first time in 67 starts. Starting 20th and with unimpressive practice speeds, Gordon wasn't expected by many to pull off a win. He not only won the race, he led the most laps for the first time in 25 starts at Phoenix.

Surprise.

Maybe we should have guessed that someone who hadn’t won in a long time would win at Phoenix since the spring 2010 race was won by Ryan Newman, who hadn’t won in 77 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series tries; the fall 2010 race was won by Carl Edwards, who hadn’t won in 70 Cup races; and the 2009 spring race was won by Mark Martin, who had lost 97 in a row before that.

So, as we head into Vegas this weekend, placing a bet on who will win the race is probably a very risky thing to do, even more so than betting on roulette, craps or blackjack. The unexpected has been normal so far this year.

But it’s best to pay close attention to the driver of car No. 18, Kyle Busch, who finished second at Phoenix in the Sprint Cup race, led every lap in NASCAR’s second division event there and won the Camping World Truck Series race. Three races, two wins and a second amount to a pretty good weekend. In his short career, the newly married young Mr. Busch has now brought home 89 big-league NASCAR trophies and more wins than anyone currently active in any of NASCAR’s top-three series.

He grew up in Vegas and will be tough on his home track on Sunday.

Busch has won there before, but to take home this weekend’s checkered flag, he’s going to have to beat his older brother, Kurt, who is also off to a pretty darn good start this year. Driving for Roger Penske, Kurt won two prelims at Daytona, finished fifth in the 500, qualified second and finished eighth in Phoenix. Although Kurt has never won a Sprint Cup race at Vegas, he won the pole in last year’s event, setting a new track record. Only a speeding penalty and a minor crash in the race killed his chance to win last year.

Speaking of speeding, NASCAR officials issued 19 Vegas pit-road speeding tickets in the past two Sprint Cup races at Vegas, a huge number of penalties compared with other tracks. Drivers going down pit road without paying a speeding penalty will put themselves in an advantageous position on Sunday afternoon.

Another to watch is ol’ Five-Time himself, Jimmie Johnson, who has won four of the past six at Las Vegas. And where did Five-Time come from on Sunday to finish third at Phoenix? He was terrible in practice, slow in time trials (qualified 28th) and slow at the start of the race, but he still managed to finish up front. Somehow, Johnson and his team always seem to display magic. And magic is still a big draw on Las Vegas stages.

Were you to ask me, I’d tell you my pick to win this weekend is Kurt Busch because he’s had fast cars all year and because he’s so determined to win at home. But, if it’s not Kurt on Sunday, little brother Kyle will win at his home track in NASCAR’s top division for a second time. The trophy will reside in Las Vegas when Sunday’s race is done.

I’ll be on pit road reporting for FOX with Matt Yocum, Krista Voda and Steve Byrnes to bring you instant news of everything going on where there’s noise, dust, flying tires and action. At night, I’m headed to see the Blue Man Group for the fifth time. Love those drums. Then again, maybe Kurt or Kyle will invite me to their victory party instead.

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