NASCAR Cup Series

Now the Chase is on

Published Oct. 4, 2010 1:00 a.m. ET

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Darrell Waltrip

As I have told you many times these last few weeks, I was pretty skeptical of all the hype heading into the 2010 Chase for the Sprint Cup about this probably being the best one ever.

No offense, but I have heard it every year since the Chase started. Everyone talks about how great the racing will be and how close the points battle will be. They all talk about it going right down to the wire at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Again though, I am a skeptic and I am always like, “Yeah, right.” Based on the increased competition that Jimmie Johnson was facing this year from the resurgence of Richard Childress Racing, plus how the Roush Fenway Racing cars were improving, Kurt Busch in his Dodge and the two Joe Gibbs Racing cars, it looked like 2010 definitely was going to be a tight race — but the best ever?

Now after Kansas, I will buy into that and say we now have a Chase. We have eight out of the 12 Chase drivers within 85 points of the lead. That’s very manageable for only three races into the Chase. With seven races to go, it definitely is shaping up to possibly be one of our best Chase’s ever.

Of the 12 Chase drivers, only Clint Bowyer is really out of the mix. Being 252 points behind is just too steep of a slope to try and climb. Matt Kenseth had a good race Sunday that he desperately needed. He is now 149 points back. Tony Stewart is 127 points back. Jeff Burton is 101 points behind. I still maintain that when you get 100 points or more behind at any point in the Chase, your chances are pretty slim.

It’s not just the amount of points you are behind with seven races to go, it’s the number of people you have to pass going up the ladder, too. They all collectively have to have problems while you have great finishes. The odds are against that. Sure, you have a chance to move up in the end-of-year standings and bring home more money, but having a legitimate shot at the championship isn’t realistic.

Right now it is shaking out to be the guys who won the most races so far this year that will be the ones battling for the crown. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin each have six wins. Kevin Harvick has three wins and those guys are 1-2-3 in the points right now.

I continue to preach that you have to win in the Chase to win the Chase. I think Jimmie Johnson has taught the other drivers that these last few years.

I also think that is why you saw guys like Tony Stewart and Jeff Burton make the big gamble on fuel at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the opening Chase race. They were going for the win. Unfortunately, it bit them and now they are far back in the points.

So to me, after three races, this year's Chase is turning out to be a little more entertaining, a little bit more interesting and a little more intriguing than some we have seen in the past. With that said, and with seven races to go, we are still going to some of Jimmie’s best tracks.

If you were to ask Jimmie how he feels about racing at Auto Club Speedway in Calif., Charlotte and Martinsville, well I would wager he would say, “I dominate there.”

These next three races won’t decide the Chase, but we will find out if Jimmie Johnson can be beat or not. Now, there is no question that Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 car run well at all three of our next stops. For Kevin Harvick, he runs really well at California but I can’t always say the same for Charlotte and Martinsville.

Lurking back there you have Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon and the Busch brothers. They simply can’t afford to fall any further behind if they think they are going to have a shot at winning the championship. So, everyone heads to California this weekend and Johnson has taken over the points lead.

Someone has to show me they can beat Johnson's No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team. Yes they had a bad race at New Hampshire but they came right back, won the next weekend at Dover, and like I mentioned, took over the points lead after Kansas. It once again looks to me to be the No. 48’s championship to lose.

So the next three weeks will show us whether the Drive for Five for the No. 48 car is going to happen or not. Will he have it in the bag or will someone rise up and dethrone him? Again, these next three weeks will show us the pretenders from the contenders.

Oh by the way

I felt really bad for my buddy David Reutimann Sunday at Kansas. David is one of the nicest guys that ever sat in a race car. He races hard, but David races fair and clean. I have seen people take advantage of David’s good nature in the Truck, Nationwide and Sprint Cup series.

David is like every other driver out there. He has owners, sponsors, fans and his team to please. Sunday at Kansas, David had his fill. I know it was not intentional on Kyle’s part. He had no reason to run into David on purpose. Unfortunately, he sent David into the wall and it ruined David’s day.

Like Carl Edwards did at Atlanta, David got his car fixed and went out there to take out another car. In this case it was Kyle Busch's. Kyle was hanging tight in the championship points and David had all he could take. David had just been shoved around so many times that he decided to retaliate. He did it for himself, his team and everyone that supports him.

I understand all that and in no way am I upset with David. You can only push a guy around so long. That’s what happened Sunday with Kyle and that’s why David decided to take matters into his own hand. It’s unfortunate for both sides. Hopefully they can talk and resolve their differences.

David, to me, is family. He has been with us a long time. I support and love my family members. Sometimes things just don’t turn out the way you would like for them to.

I just hate it for David because that is just not who he is. That’s not the image he wants to project and not the way he drives.

Unfortunately Sunday, David had all he could take.

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