Johnson not as dominant as in past title runs
I think after now reaching the halfway point in the 2011 Chase for the Sprint Cup, the picture has become a lot clearer as to whom the combatants are for the crown.
We said early on we believed Denny Hamlin would be a factor and he is still hanging tough. We also have Kevin Harvick hanging tough. In front of those guys is Jimmie Johnson -- and he is being tough.
As we go into these next couple of races, I think we have to go back to what we said a week or so ago about whether you can stay even with Jimmie to see if he might bobble and make a mistake. The other option is beating him in a head-to-head competition. You might see that as soon as this weekend.
Jimmie has always run well at Martinsville. Lately however, that’s been Denny’s track, so Sunday is shaping up to be a great battle. Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t believe this is a two-man Chase battle yet. I just think you are seeing a slow and methodical separation of our frontrunners and the rest of the Chase field.
I still don’t believe you can consider anyone within 100 points technically out of the Chase picture. We still have half the Chase races to be run, plus you have a place like Talladega Superspeedway that can always be a game changer. With that said, I still think you are seeing the tempo pick up and what we expected to happen starting to show through.
We expected Denny to be tough and he is. Yes, Jimmie is able to put points on the board but he still hasn’t been able to deliver that knockout blow. None of the frontrunners chasing Jimmie are in a panic situation yet. You heard Kevin Harvick mention that he needs to keep Jimmie close and take what they give him if the No. 48 makes a mistake. I believe that’s the right way to go about it.
I really think that’s the key this year in the Chase. Can you force Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus to make a mistake? After four years running, are they getting tired and will they make that kind of tactical error in possible overconfidence?
Denny and Kevin have to be within striking distance if it occurs.
See, I don’t think Jimmie and Chad are as dominant of a force as in years past. So if they make that mistake, you have to be ready to take advantage of the situation. Right now it’s all coming down to points position.
So maybe if they have a bad day, you can get ahead of them and hold serve.
So with the five races remaining, Denny and Kevin are still hoping for Jimmie to have that one bad race. Personally I don’t think Jimmie has had his one bad race of the Chase yet. Talladega at the end of the month has to be at the top of the wild-card list. I think the speed that everyone has at tracks from the time they open practice Friday, how they practice and how they qualify will be very influential on the remaining races.
You saw at Texas Motor Speedway that Jimmie got himself in trouble because he qualified back in the back. You saw Saturday that the car wasn’t handling well; Jimmie was in the back of the back and trying to hard. He spun out, but luckily he didn’t hit anything. He and his Hendrick Motorsports team were able to rally back and have a great finish.
But, if I am the crew chief for Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, I am telling my driver and my team “See, they ARE human. They can make a mistake like everyone else.”
I would also be pointing out that Johnson’s team isn’t having the consistent pit stops that they really need. On the flip side, you have to say Denny’s No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing crew has been pretty darn flawless on pit road. Kevin’s No. 29 Richard Childress Racing boys are hot and cold, similar to the No. 48.
I can see a situation where someone makes a mistake on pit road and it becomes a big points swing day.
You have to make Jimmie Johnson look over his shoulder. I think right now he is absolutely doing that. I think he realizes that while his is a good team, they aren’t as dominant as they’ve been in the past. This year, the other drivers are not rolling over and playing dead simply because Jimmie took over the points lead.
It’s not over, especially for the first three guys. I think that will sure make things interesting all the way down to the checkered flag at Homestead.
