NASCAR Cup Series

Curse of runner-up prevalent in Chase era

Published Jun. 15, 2011 1:00 a.m. ET

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Denny Hamlin should have seen this coming.

He should have known he was in for a long 2011 season after nearly winning the Sprint Cup championship in 2010.

This is what happens to championship contenders who fail to win the title — contenders who come oh-so-close to winning the Chase for the Sprint Cup and capturing NASCAR’s ultimate prize, yet come up just short.

The next year they suffer the Curse of the Runner-up.

Especially after they succumb to five-time champion Jimmie Johnson.

The effort and intensity that it takes to battle Johnson wire to wire seems to take its toll, sapping the strength of a driver and team that went toe to toe with one of the greatest drivers and teams in NASCAR history.

A year after taking the points lead into the final race of the season and then choking it away — allowing Johnson to rally for his fifth straight title — Hamlin is in one of the worst slumps of his career.

He stumbled to finishes of 21st, 33rd and 39th in three of the first five races of the season and slumped to as low as 21st in the standings.

Though he has come on strong of late, he is still 12th in the standings after 14 races and in danger of missing the Chase. After winning a career-high eight races last year, Hamlin is winless this season. He had four wins at this point last year and won his fifth at Michigan — site of this week’s race — in the 15th event of the season.

Hamlin is not the first championship contender to suffer a big letdown the following season. It seems to be a trend during the Chase era — drivers falling victim to the Curse of the Runner-up.

Mark Martin finished second in points in 2009, winning five races and challenging Johnson for the championship. But last season, Martin went winless and slumped to 13th in points — a slump he has yet to shake.

In 2008, Carl Edwards had one of the greatest seasons of the Chase era, winning a career-high nine races and finishing second in points to Johnson. The following year, Edwards went winless and plummeted to 11th in points, barely making the Chase. He didn’t win again until the final two races of 2010, building momentum for what looks like another championship run this season.

Greg Biffle, Edwards’ Roush Fenway Racing teammate, suffered a similar fate. Biffle won six races and finished second in points in 2005, only to fall to 13th in the standings and miss the Chase in 2006.

Even four-time champion Jeff Gordon has been susceptible to the curse. Gordon had one of his finest seasons in years in 2007, winning six races and nearly unseating Johnson, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate. Instead, Gordon wound up second in the final standings, setting him up for a freefall.

In 2008, Gordon suffered a rare winless season and wound up seventh in points.

Gordon hasn’t been the same since. He went winless again in 2010 before snapping out of it with two wins this season. But he hasn’t been a serious championship contender since his runner-up finish in 2007.

Even old Five-Time once fell victim to the curse — sort of.

The first time Johnson challenged for the championship, he finished second to Kurt Busch in the inaugural Chase in 2004. The following year, he slumped to fifth in points — matching the worst points finish of his illustrious Cup career.

What is it that causes NASCAR’s championship contenders to fade once they’ve challenged for the title?

Is it the inability to sustain the same high-level intensity, the same narrow-minded focus that it takes to run up front week after week?

Do they somehow lose the magical chemistry with their team that it takes to succeed at such a high level?

Or do they simply get caught up in the week-to-week battle and fall behind other teams on technology and the critical details and advantages that the top teams enjoy?

Hamlin insists that he and his Joe Gibbs Racing team are not suffering an emotional hangover from last year’s intense championship battle and bitter defeat. He says they have merely struggled with the new tire compounds Goodyear is using this year and adjusting to the new nose on his Toyota.

He refused to attribute his slump to a letdown.

“I know in my mind it has nothing to do with it, but it's just the way people see it — like it's a letdown from last year,” Hamlin said after the Texas race in April.

“I honestly don't believe that.  . . . I honestly believe we're going to be in the top 10 here (soon)."

The question is, can he stay there? And can he somehow recapture the magic and momentum that made him a serious contender last year?

If he does not and his prolonged slump continues, he won’t be the first contender to succumb to the Curse of the Runner-up.

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