Three Burning Fantasy Basketball Questions (Jan. 27)
Every week, D.J. Foster will tackle three burning questions in the Fantasy Basketball world. Topics for today: Blake Griffin gets punchy, a few more rookies begin to breakout and the old men start to rest.
1. Who benefits the most from Blake Griffin breaking his hand on somone's face?
The obvious answer: all of the other owners in your fantasy league. Griffin is a counting stats monster, and it seems more likely he'll return towards the tail-end of that 4-6 week projected timetable. A broken shooting hand is sort of a big deal.
The Clippers don't really have anyone to step into Griffin's high usage role, and will instead tackle it by committee, just as they've been doing the last few weeks. Paul Pierce, Wesley Johnson and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute will all see more minutes, but not nearly enough to make any of those three a viable fantasy option. That's maybe the most disheartening thing about this for Griffin owners: there isn't a free agent stepping into his role.
Chris Paul owners should be thrilled. Paul's usage percentage when sharing the court with Griffin is 25.2 percent. But when Paul is out there without Griffin, that number jumps to 29.6. That's a huge difference, and it's no coincidence that Paul is having his best month of the season with Griffin sidelined.
Theoretically, a few more rebounds may fall DeAndre Jordan's way as well. J.J. Redick will continue to get more touches, but the quantity for quality trade-off probably washes out since defenses can more easily key on him.
CP3 owners are the biggest beneficiaries, and don't get roped into thinking any of Griffin's replacements will have fantasy value going forward.
2. Is this rookie class deeper than everyone thought?
At the beginning of the season, fantasy players only had to really concern themselves with three rookies: Kristaps Porzingis, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor.
Things have changed radically in just the last month. With more opportunities for playing time popping up and coaches becoming a little more willing to let the rookies get out there and play, the 2015 draft class all of the sudden is providing big time fantasy production, and it's more than the big three.
Willie Cauley-Stein has solidified himself as a viable starter next to DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento. Over his last ten games, Cauley-Stein is averaging 8.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 1.7 BPG on 57.4 percent from the field. If you haven't scooped him up already, do it. The mobile big man should be a great provider of rebounds, steals and blocks the rest of the way.
Indiana Pacers rookie Myles Turner is lighting the world on fire, even with Ian Mahinmi making his return. Turner has scored in double-digits in each of his last six games, is shooting 61.5 percent from the field and is chipping in with nearly 3 blocks a game over his last five contests. There's almost no way he can keep up this efficient scoring, but he's carved out a role as a shotblocker who can actually score, which is something that's very hard to find in fantasy.
Although Cauley-Stein and Turner are the two biggest contributors from the rookie class to join the big three, they aren't alone. Devin Booker has become a reliable source of points with all the injuries in Phoenix. Frank Kaminsky was able to string together three or four strong fantasy performances in a row for the Hornets. Trey Lyles has had some nice outings with Derrick Favors out for Utah. Don't sleep on Cameron Payne as a threes, steals and assists provider, especially with Andre Roberson sidelined and more time potentially opening up for him in Oklahoma City.
Avoiding all but the biggest rookies early in the season was the smart move. Now it's time to start buying the depth of this class.
3. We've officially entered the resting season, haven't we?
We most certainly have.
The grind of the season is fully upon us. It's winter. Muscles are cold. The All-Star break is still a few weeks away. Guys are starting to wear down and may be looking for extended breaks.
For leagues in which you set your lineup a week ahead of time and aren't able to make changes, just keep in mind that the veterans on the Spurs and guys like Dirk Nowitzki are going to start skipping games every now then. Players that may be dealing with an injury on an ightly basis (like Carmelo Anthony and his knee) might shut it down a few games before the All-Star break. You have to decide whether to just deal with it, or try and pinpoint the matchups where these guys will sit.
The latter is tough to do, but I'm comfortable sitting all Spurs not named Kawhi Leonard in weeks where the Spurs are scheduled to play only three games. Ditto for Nowitzki and Kobe.
Now more than ever, you have to be dilligent checking injury reports and schedule slates. A player can be perfectly healthy and yet miss a game. Winning your fantasy league isn't just about knowledge or strategy. At this stage, it's mostly about commitment.
