2025 CFP First-Round Odds: Back Oregon to Rout James Madison

The College Football Playoff begins with 12, but it's soon to be eight.

The debates and controversy over who belongs and who doesn’t have quieted, although those discussions will never be put to rest entirely. 

Last year, all four home teams won in the opening round, with each winning comfortably. This year, however, only two of the point spreads are above 3, granted those two are 17.5 and 21, respectively. 

If you’re looking to make just one bet this weekend on any of the four games, what is the best bet on the board? 

In my view, it is Oregon -21 over James Madison. 

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A good time for an underdog to catch the favorite looking ahead is in the middle of the season, perhaps in a game that is wedged in the middle of two bigger games. 

Those circumstances don’t apply here. 

Oregon didn’t reach the Big Ten title game and hasn’t played since defeating Washington on Thanksgiving weekend. Last year, Oregon was the top seed and went undefeated until the Ducks' first test in the Playoff, getting drubbed by Ohio State in the quarterfinals. 

Oregon coach Dan Lanning has a reputation for being a fierce motivator. I would suspect that the blowout loss last January is something Lanning can use as fuel to avoid any complacency on Saturday night. 

James Madison had another outstanding season, but the only Power 4 opponent the Dukes came across was Louisville, which defeated them 28-14. Oregon played three non-conference games this year, winning by a combined score of 169-23. 

While those teams were not on the same level as James Madison, the gap in talent is still stark. Oregon is home, rested and motivated to make amends for its performance in last year’s tournament. 

PICK: Oregon (-21) to win by more than 21 points

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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