2025 CFP Quarterfinals Odds: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets

Let's not beat around the bush: I know it is the defending champion, but Ohio State getting 9.5 points against Miami? 

This number is too high. 

Maybe six or so would be the number I would make the game. 

Think back to early in the season, when the conversation was, "Who is better, Miami or Ohio State?" Yes, the Canes dropped a couple of games on the final play, but Mario Cristobal has been fairly adamant that Miami is a better team now than it was when the Canes were ranked No. 2 in the country. 

Miami will need to be every bit that good to knock off the reigning national champions, but here are some things to ponder coming from someone who is backing the Canes.

First, Miami already has two better wins (Notre Dame, Texas A&M) per FPI, SP+ and Sagarin than Ohio State’s best win (Texas). In a weird way, Ohio State could be a flashier, souped-up model of Notre Dame, considering both lost to the best team they played — Ohio State losing to Indiana and Notre Dame losing to Miami. 

Furthermore, both teams’ best win came against a three-loss team at home — Ohio State beating Texas in Week 1 and Notre Dame beating USC. 

Lastly, each had a decent win over a fringe ranked team — Ohio State over Michigan and Notre Dame over Pitt. The rest was pretty much filler. 

Let's continue on with my analysis of the game, with a few best bets mixed in.

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No. 10 Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State 

Ohio State hasn’t allowed more than 16 points in a game all season. The back seven in particular is loaded with studs like Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese and more. The biggest unit advantage that Ohio State has over Miami is in the linebacker group. If the OSU LB corps and front can stop the Miami running game, then it's a ballgame.  

Taking it a little further, if Carson Beck has another turnover fest like he endured against Louisville, it's a ballgame, too. And if Miami can't get production from a pass catcher other than Malachi Toney, it's a ballgame. 

But what if the Miami offensive line, which is the best line Ohio State will have faced this season, has success opening up holes and getting to the second level? What if we get the Beck we saw against Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, USF and others? What if CJ Daniels has a game? 

I enjoy filtering numbers to specific subsets. For most of my college football data, I look at rank within P4 teams vs. P4 opponents. I don't care what you do against the FCS or G5 — that just pollutes the data. And if you look at the offenses Ohio State has faced this season, only Indiana ranks among the top 15 in this subset. Miami will be the second-best offense Ohio State has faced this year, and don't forget, the Buckeyes faced three backup QBs and three of the worst offenses in the P4 (UCLA, Purdue and Wisconsin). 

Interestingly, Miami has faced five of the top 21 offenses in this subset, with Ohio State being the sixth. 

On the flip side, Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and other members of that OSU offense have put up great numbers most of the season — emphasis on most. In that same P4 vs. P4 subset, Ohio State has also faced just one defense in the top 16 in EPA/game, that obviously being Indiana. 

Again, Miami will be by far the second-best defense the Buckeyes have faced this year. 

Can the Ohio State OL do better against Rueben Bain, Akheem Mesidor & Co. than Texas A&M did? One of the reasons I like Miami to record the first sack in the game wager is because I expect Ohio State to throw a lot in this game and, like Marcel Reed, Sayin has had a knack of holding the ball a tad too long. 

PICK: Miami (+120) to record first sack of the game

Against the best defenses OSU has faced — Indiana (10 points, 58 rushing yards, 322 total yards), Texas (14 points, 77 rushing yards, 203 total yards) and Washington (24 points, 149 rushing yards, 357 total yards) — it has generated 10 red zone trips and managed five touchdowns. So based on those performances against the best defenses they’ve played, we should probably expect Ohio State to score in that 14-21 point range. 

In that similar subset, Miami has faced five of the top 15 defenses in terms of EPA — Notre Dame, Pitt, Louisville, SMU and Texas A&M. 

Maybe it's the Canes who are hardened to win this type of game? 

PICK: Ohio State Under 24.5 points 

PFF had an interesting tweet the other day via a unit comparison, and it was pretty eye-opening to see how in many areas it gave an edge to Miami or the two teams were identical. I also give Miami a bit of a bump for having played a game 10 days ago. I’d much rather have played a game than sit around for a month. Ohio State used that opening round win over Tennessee last year to kickstart a national title run. 

Remember too, last year, Will Howard gave Ryan Day and Chip Kelly a run threat at the QB position. How many big scrambles or designed runs did we see from Howard last season? 

Sayin certainly does not provide that threat. 

This is the biggest game Miami has played since the 2003 Fiesta Bowl against these same Buckeyes, so it would be something if the Canes announced their return to the college football elite with a win over Ohio State.

The Buckeyes power rate higher and are a deserved favorite. But Miami is here with a real chance to not just cover, but win outright. 

PICK: Miami (+9.5) to lose by fewer than 9.5 points or win outright

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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