We’ve got a unique Final Four – and not just because it’s the first one since the field expanded in 1985 without a No. 1 seed.
Houston will host two of the big boys and a pair of mid-majors. Here’s our first glance at this most unexpected Final Four field:
No. 8 Butler vs. No. 11 VCU, Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET
VCU
The Road: It began in Dayton with the play-in game, when the Rams beat Kevin O’Neill and USC. Then came a resounding win against Georgetown and another convincing one over Purdue – both in D.C. VCU then took care of Florida State and pulled the upset of the tournament by knocking off No. 1 Kansas to get to the Final Four.
Storylines: That many felt as though the Rams, who were the No. 4 seed in the CAA tourney, never should have received an invite to the Big Dance in the first place. However, Shaka Smart’s team has played with a chip on its shoulder the entire tourney and it’s worked thus far.
Fact: Smart was not the leading candidate to replace Anthony Grant when Grant left VCU for Alabama. However, athletic director Norwood Teague was blown away in the interview process and went with his gut and hired the young assistant, who had only spent 10 months with Billy Donovan at Florida.
Stud: Joey Rodriguez. The senior point guard, who was set to go to Rollins College near his home in Florida after Smart replaced Grant, has turned into the heart and soul of the team, the leader and also a terrific point guard.
Key: Jamie Skeen – He’s a difficult matchup for Butler due to his size (6-9) and athleticism. The Wake Forest transfer can make shots from the perimeter and also score in the paint. He went for 26 points and 10 boards against the Morris Twins.
Key question: Will this VCU team be able to handle the big stage? A year ago, Butler’s kids reacted well in their first go-around at the Final Four. Will nerves get the best of the Rams?
Why they win: Momentum. These players believe in themselves and are on a mission. They have already won five games. Why can’t they win another?
Why they lose: The shots don’t fall, the Rams have to play from behind and lose their swagger against a poised Butler group.
BUTLER
The Road: It began with Matt Howard’s buzzer-beater to knock off Old Dominion, and continued with another last-second win over No. 1 Pittsburgh. Then came the fairly resounding win over Wisconsin before overcoming an 11-point deficit to knock off No. 2 Florida.
Storylines: One year ago, the Butler Bulldogs became America’s darlings when they made an improbable run to the national title game and were a Gordon Hayward basket away from beating Duke. Now Brad Stevens’ team is back – even though Hayward left school early as a lottery pick. This team, though, came in as a bigger underdog after losing five Horizon League regular-season games.
Fact: The lowest-seeded team to win the national championship? No. 8-seeded Villanova, which pulled the remarkable upset over Georgetown to win it all in 1985. Guess what? Butler is also a No. 8 seed this year.
Stud: Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack. Honestly, I can’t choose between these two guys. They are both invaluable, both tough as nails. Howard is the heart and soul of the group, a senior who plays as hard as anyone I’ve seen in a long time. Mack is a big, strong junior guard who can do just about everything.
Key: Andrew Smith. Butler’s sophomore big man, who is far more agile than most realize, is still recovering from an ankle injury he sustained against Wisconsin. He’ll have his hands full and will need to be healthy.
Key question: Can Butler’s backcourt get out on VCU’s shooters and prevent the Rams from getting hot from the perimeter?
Why they win: Stevens is a magician as a coach – and these guys just know how to win. They have terrific leadership. Howard will battle on every possession, and if Smith’s ankle is close to 100 percent and he remains out of foul trouble, the Bulldogs have a shot.
Why they lose: VCU gets hot from long distance and makes a dozen or so 3-pointers – as the Rams did in wins over Kansas, Florida State and Georgetown.
Prediction: Butler returns to the national title game and ends VCU’s magical run in the process.
No. 3 UConn vs. No. 4 Kentucky, Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET
UCONN
The Road: The Huskies blew out Patriot League champs Bucknell to start it off, then took care of Cincinnati without much difficulty. Jim Calhoun’s team needed overtime to get past No. 2 San Diego State and then held off Derrick Williams and Arizona in the Elite Eight.
Storylines: This team was picked to finish 10th in the Big East in the preseason, but Kemba Walker has carried the Huskies virtually all season long. UConn beat Kentucky to win the Maui Invitational and, after a slump late in the regular season, the Huskies won five games in five days to claim the Big East tournament title. Now, Walker has some help with the emergence of freshman Jeremy Lamb.
Fact: Lamb didn’t even start for his high school team, Norcross High in Atlanta, as a junior.
Stud: Kemba Walker. He was the best player in the country for the first 15 or so games – and has once again been the best during the past 10. He’s given this young team the scorer it needed, and has helped instill confidence in his younger teammates.
Key: Alex Oriakhi. The Huskies have proven they can win without him playing his best, but they are a different team with the 6-foot-9 sophomore dominating in the paint. He was a force back in Maui early in the season and had 18 points and 11 boards in the win over Kentucky, but doesn’t always give maximum effort.
Key question: Can UConn make enough shots from the perimeter? Lamb is the team’s top 3-point shooter at just 37 percent. These guys will need to make their share in order to advance to the national title game.
Why they win: They have Kemba, and the rest of the supporting cast — especially Lamb – has come along nicely. Plus, these guys have their swagger back after losing it down the stretch of the regular season.
Why they lose: Walker doesn’t shoot a solid percentage, and Lamb doesn’t do his part as well. These are two guys that UConn needs to play well, and play efficiently.
KENTUCKY
The Road: The Wildcats opened things up by struggling to get past Princeton, then pulled away from West Virginia, knocked off No. 1 Ohio State and finally won a close one over No. 2 North Carolina.
Storylines: John Calipari takes Kentucky to its first Final Four since 1998, in just his second season as the head man. Most figured the Wildcats would struggle after losing John Wall and four other first-round draft picks in the 2010 NBA draft, but Calipari has taken this thin group to Houston.
Fact: John Calipari is coaching his third program to the Final Four. However, the other two – UMass and Memphis – were forced to vacate their appearances by the NCAA.
Stud: Brandon Knight. The freshman guard from Florida has improved over the course of the season. Known as purely a scorer, Knight has also run the team, and had improved his leadership ability. The strength of his game is his ability to score.
Key: Foul Trouble. Calipari only plays six guys, so the Wildcats can ill-afford to have any of their key players in serious foul trouble.
Key question: Can Josh Harrellson keep up his play? In the first meeting, Kentucky’s big man didn’t score a single point, and took just one shot in 25 minutes. He’ll need to hold his own against Alex Oriakhi in this one.
Why they win: They are more talented and are tougher. Knight, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb are all likely first-round picks at some point in their careers, and DeAndre Liggins, Darius Miller and Josh Harrellson will all make money playing somewhere in the future.
Why they lose: If they aren’t able to contain Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb and Alex Oriakhi. The trio is key to UConn’s fortunes, and all three can’t have their way.
Prediction: Kentucky got revenge over North Carolina in the regional finals, and gets it against UConn in the national semifinals.
