College Basketball

NCAA Tournament odds: A bookmaker's take on the Final Four and March Madness

Updated Apr. 1, 2022 11:51 p.m. ET

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By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

As the sand runs out of the hourglass in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, so does most of the action from professional sports bettors in Las Vegas.

These "wise guys" view the first few rounds as their best opportunities to capitalize on mispriced lines and inefficient totals. After all, it’s easier to beat the house when there are 32 games and 64 teams. The more games on the board, the more difficult it is for the house to get them all right.

Wise guy action always tends to lessen as the tournament field shortens, and there’s even less when the Final Four is loaded with blue bloods and perennial contenders like it is this weekend at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

The four remaining teams – Duke, Kansas, North Carolina and Villanova – have won nine national championships across the last 20 tournaments.

So nobody is sneaking up on anybody, if you catch my drift.

Legendary bookmaker Chris Andrews has worked behind a Nevada betting counter for parts of five different decades. Andrews is currently the sportsbook director at the South Point Hotel and Casino, and he knows a thing or two about booking action during the Big Dance. 

"The basketball is great in the Final Four, but the action isn’t always that great," Andrews told FOX Sports. "These lines are too strong, and the market just isn’t going to move, especially with these four teams.

"The only real sharp action I got was when I moved Nova to +5, and they came in and bet me at a market number. There hasn’t been much else from the respected players, and the wise guys haven’t done much this round.

"That tells you these numbers are rock solid."

Kansas and Villanova play the first game Saturday night at 6:09 pm ET, and the action has been pretty one-sided since post. But to be fair, Villanova’s Justin Moore – the team’s second-leading scorer – suffered an injury in the Elite Eight against Houston, and his status wasn’t fully known when the Final Four betting markets opened for business.

Late last Sunday, Villanova announced that Moore underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn right Achilles, and naturally, the line started to run.

"I thought Kansas -3 was good," Andrews said. "That’s where we opened it before I realized how bad the injury was. And that’s my fault. I thought 3 was good, and then I saw Moore was out and moved it very quickly.

"We actually went to -5, and we finally got a bet back on Villanova. Even now, it’s Kansas -4.5, and it’s all Kansas money. They can’t stop betting me Kansas on Saturday’s game and on Kansas to win the whole thing."

Saturday’s nightcap will make college basketball history. It’s the first time Duke and North Carolina will meet in the NCAA Tournament. That’s probably the 12th time you’ve been reminded of that tidbit, but it was worth repeating.

I still can’t figure out why the Duke-North Carolina point spread isn’t higher. Duke is a 4-point favorite Saturday night, but in the regular season, the Blue Devils were -4 at North Carolina and -11 in head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s last home game at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Having Duke -4 on a neutral means that Duke would now be -1 at UNC? Even typing that out makes me want to map this all out on a whiteboard. Charlie Kelly-style.

"When you look at it that way, you’re right, the line really doesn’t make sense," Andrews admitted. "But all I can tell you is that the market says it’s the right number, and we’re writing good business. The betting is very even. We’re at Duke -4 with good action both ways, and we haven’t moved the number much. It’s very consistent two-way.

"If we wind up needing Duke, fine. If we don’t, that’s fine, too."

The betting handle on Duke-Carolina will likely blow Kansas-Villanova out of the water and not just because it’s the late game. Coach K is an extremely polarizing figure – like LeBron James or Tom Brady – and sports bettors generally feel obligated to bet on or against the guy.

"It’s very good for the handle when Krzyzewski is still around," Andrews explained. "You’ve got a lot of guys that hate him and hate Duke, and there are a lot of other guys that see things more logically and like their bankrolls more than they hate him. You get it both ways. 

"I was just having a conversation in the back this morning. Krzyzewski has been good to me over the years. There have been plenty of times I’ve needed him, and he’s come through for me. I’ve been on the right side of him a bunch of times.

"The first time [Krzyzewski] went to the Final Four in ’86 with Mark Alarie and Johnny Dawkins, I got hip to them early that season. They went on a great run and lost in the title game to Louisville with Pervis Ellison. I was betting pretty good at the time and rode Duke all the way. They were very, very good to me.

"I’ve never held a grudge against Krzyzewski largely because of that."

Sportsbooks are lucky that St. Peter’s was finally eliminated in the Elite Eight. That type of team keeps a bookmaker up all night thinking about all the money he would have to pay out if it did the unthinkable. Like George Mason almost did in 2006 or Butler in 2010.

Andrews would’ve definitely held a grudge against Shaheen Holloway for the rest of his life if the Peacocks cut down the nets after the season’s final game.

"Thank God they’re out," he cracked.

Imagine how much liability was built up on a 15-seed with quadruple-digit odds to win it all after knocking out Kentucky in the first round. And with every win after that came another wave of future bets on St. Peter’s.

How bad could it be? Was South Point owner Michael Gaughan going to chase Andrews around the sportsbook?

"He’s pretty good about that stuff," Andrews said after a laugh. "He likes to joke around and bust my balls when [the liablity] builds.

"I opened the Peacocks at 2000/1 and had like 50 bucks on ‘em. But after they beat Kentucky, it just kept picking up steam, and the money started rolling in. So Michael called me after they beat Purdue and asked, ‘how bad are we talking?’

"It was well into the high six figures on St. Peter’s."

Overall, the sportsbooks are in a good spot with four storied programs left standing in the Final Four. The future liabilities are low, and the wise guys have mostly turned their attention to Major League Baseball. And when the dust settles, it should be another profitable college basketball season for the house.

What’s the worst-case scenario, you ask?

"The Tar Heels are the biggest worry for us," Andrews reported. "We had them 200/1 to win the title back on February 28, and they were 175/1 the first week of March. I remember writing a $100 bet on them at 100/1 shortly after. Then they beat Duke, and we dropped them to 50/1.

"There’s not a major wager or anything, but it all adds up."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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