Patriots vs. Dolphins 2025 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 4

In a matchup of two division rivals, the New England Patriots (13-3) will face off against the Miami Dolphins (7-9). The Patriots are heavy favorites (-13.5). The expected point total for the game is 45.5.

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Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Lines

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Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Patriots (-13.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (45.5)
  
• Prediction: Patriots 31 - Dolphins 15

How to Watch New England vs. Miami

• Game date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• TV: Watch on FOX
• Streaming: FOXSports.com, FOX Sports App and FOX One (Try free for 7 days)

Patriots vs. Dolphins Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Miami has collected four wins against New England.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Miami has scored 131 points, while New England has tallied 92.

New England Betting Info

• New England has played 16 games, posting 10 wins against the spread.
• The Patriots have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 13.5-point favorites.
• New England games in 2025 have gone over the point total 10 times in 16 opportunities (62.5%).
• The Patriots have won 90% of the time they have played as the moneyline favorite (9-1).
• Looking at this matchup's moneyline, the Patriots' implied win probability is 90.9%.

Patriots Stats

New England's Key Players

Offense

• Drake Maye has passed for 4,203 yards (fourth in the NFL), 30 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and eight interceptions this year. He is averaging 262.7 yards per game and 8.9 per attempt, while completing 71.7% of his passes.
• He has also rushed for 409 yards (third on the Patriots) and added four touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 25.6 rushing yards per game.
• TreVeyon Henderson's rushing statline this season includes 858 yards and seven TDs. He is averaging 53.6 yards per game and 5.1 per attempt (sixth in the NFL).
• Henderson's 42 targets through the air have resulted in 35 catches (2.2 per game) for 221 yards (13.8 per game) and one touchdown.
• In the passing attack, Stefon Diggs, has contributed with 970 receiving yards and four touchdowns after grabbing 82 balls (10th in the NFL) on 99 targets. Per game, he's averaging 60.6 yards and 5.1 receptions in 16 games.
• In the ground game, Rhamondre Stevenson averages 3.8 yards per attempt (41st in the NFL) and 36.3 yards per game for 472 total rushing yards. He has scored five rushing touchdowns this season.
• He has added 30 catches (on 35 targets) for 323 receiving yards with one touchdown. He's averaging 24.8 receiving yards and 2.3 receptions per game.

Defense

• Over on defense, Robert Spillane has 97 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions in 2025.
• Marcus Jones has 63 tackles, 6.0 TFL, one sack, and three interceptions this season.
• Harold Landry has collected 49 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 8.5 sacks this year.
• This season, Jaylinn Hawkins has 68 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and three interceptions.

Miami Betting Info

• Miami is 8-8-0 against the spread this year.
• This year, nine Miami games have gone over the point total.
• This season, the Dolphins have been the underdog 10 times and won three of those games.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 13.3% chance of a victory for the Dolphins.

Dolphins Stats

Miami's Key Players

Offense

• This year through 16 games, De'Von Achane has churned out 1,350 rushing yards (leading the Dolphins and fifth in the NFL) and scored eight rushing touchdowns. He averages 84.4 yards per game and 5.7 per carry (first in the NFL).
• On top of his rushing statistics, Achane has caught 67 passes (on 85 targets) for 488 yards (second on the Dolphins), with four receiving touchdowns. He's averaging 30.5 yards per game.
• Tua Tagovailoa has 2,660 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. His completion percentage is 67.7% and he averages 190.0 yards per game and 6.9 per attempt.
• So far this season, Jaylen Waddle has caught 64 passes for 910 receiving yards with six touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 100 total times and is averaging 4.0 receptions per game over 16 games played.
• Malik Washington has 43 catches for 311 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He averages 2.7 yards per game in 16 games and has been targeted 61 times.

Defense

• Jordyn Brooks has put up 3.5 sacks (fifth on the Dolphins) to go with 13.0 TFL and 174 tackles through 16 games in 2025.
• Tyrel Dodson has 5.0 sacks (third on the Dolphins) to go with 10.0 TFL, 121 tackles, and one interception.
• Minkah Fitzpatrick has 1.0 sack as well as 4.0 TFL, 74 tackles, and one interception in the 2025 season.
• Bradley Chubb has 8.5 sacks (first on the Dolphins) to go with 9.0 TFL and 46 tackles through 16 games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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