Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec. 25

The Dallas Mavericks (12-19) hope to halt a four-game road losing streak at the Golden State Warriors (15-15) on December 25, 2025. Golden State is a strong 8-point favorite against Dallas when the Warriors take the court against the Mavericks on Thursday. The point total for the game is 227.5.

Here is everything you need to know to know about the Warriors-Mavericks game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Thursday, December 25, 2025 at 5 p.m. ET
• Where: Chase Center in San Francisco, California
• TV: ABC and ESPN
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction

ATS Pick: Mavericks (+ 8)
O/U Pick: Over (227.5)
Score Prediction: Warriors 118 - Mavericks 110

Warriors vs. Mavericks Betting Insights

• Of 30 games thus far this season, the Warriors have had 17 with over 227.5 points scored, their current matchup's over/under.
• This year, 17 of the Mavericks' 31 games have had a combined total of more than 227.5 points scored.
• These teams average a combined 227.8 points per game, 0.3 more points than the total of 227.5 set for this matchup.
• Opponents of the two teams average a combined 2.2 more points per game, 229.7, than this matchup's total of 227.5 points.
• Golden State has been chosen as the favorite in 20 games this year and has walked away with the win 11 times (55%) in those games.
• Dallas has been chosen as underdogs in 21 games this year and has walked away with the win eight times (38.1%) in those games.
• Golden State and Dallas have each won two of their last four head-to-head matchups.
• The two teams are both 2-2 against the spread in those contests.

Warriors Recent Trends

• The Warriors have gone 5-5 in their past 10 games, with a 4-6 record against the spread during that span.
• Golden State has averaged a total of 228 combined points over its last 10 games, 0.5 greater than this matchup's total of 227.5.
• The Warriors have 13 wins against the spread in 30 games this season.
• Golden State has an against the spread record of 4-3-1 in its eight games when favored by 8 points or more so far this season.
• Warriors games this year have hit the over 51.6% of the time (16 out of 31 games with a set point total).
• The Warriors put up 114.2 points per game, just 3.2 fewer points than the 117.4 the Mavericks allow.
• When Golden State totals more than 117.4 points, it is 8-5-1 against the spread and 10-4 overall.
• The Warriors make 45.2% of their shots from the field this season, which is one percentage point lower than the Mavericks have allowed to their opponents (46.2%).
• The Warriors have done a better job covering the spread at home (6-6-1) than they have in road tilts (7-10-0).
• Golden State has gone over the total in a higher percentage of home games (53.8%) than away games (52.9%).
• The Warriors have won a higher percentage of their matchups as a moneyline favorite at home, going 8-3 (.727). In road games as a moneyline favorite, they have a record of 3-6 (.333).

Warriors Recent Stats

Warriors Leaders

• Jimmy Butler III puts up 19.9 points, 4.7 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game.
• Stephen Curry posts 28.7 points, 4.3 assists and 4.2 boards per game.
• Brandin Podziemski puts up 12.4 points, 3.3 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game.
• Moses Moody posts 11.4 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists per contest, shooting 41.8% from the floor and 38.1% from downtown with 2.3 made 3-pointers per game.
• Draymond Green averages 8.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per contest, shooting 40.9% from the field and 32.7% from downtown with 1.4 made treys per game.

Warriors Player Props

Mavericks Recent Trends

• The Mavericks are 5-4-1 against the spread and 6-4 overall in their past 10 games.
• Dallas and its opponents have combined to score an average of 232.1 combined points in its last 10 games, 4.6 more than the 227.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Mavericks are 14-16-1 against the spread this year.
• Dallas has an ATS record of 5-3 in its eight games as an underdog of 8 points or more this season.
• Mavericks games this season have eclipsed the over/under 16 times in 31 opportunities (51.6%).
• The Mavericks score an average of 113.6 points per game, only 1.3 more points than the 112.3 the Warriors give up.
• Dallas has put together a 9-7-1 ATS record and a 10-7 overall record in games it scores more than 112.3 points.
• The Mavericks have shot at a 46.6% rate from the field this season, 0.7 percentage points higher than the 45.9% shooting opponents of the Warriors have averaged.
• This year, the Mavericks are 9-8-1 at home against the spread (.500 winning percentage). On the road, they are 5-8-0 ATS (.385).
• In 2025-26 a lower percentage of Dallas' games have finished above the over/under at home (50%, nine of 18) compared to away (53.8%, seven of 13).
• This year the Mavericks are 3-4 at home as moneyline favorites (.429 winning percentage). Away they are 1-2 (.333).

Mavericks Recent Stats

Mavericks Leaders

• Cooper Flagg is averaging 19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. He's also sinking 48.7% of his shots from the floor.
• On a per-game basis, P.J. Washington gets the Mavericks 15.7 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2 assists. He also averages 1 steal and 1.4 blocked shots (10th in league).
• Naji Marshall gives the Mavericks 13.4 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists per contest while posting 1.1 steals and 0.1 blocked shots.
• Anthony Davis gets the Mavericks 21.7 points, 11.4 rebounds and 3 assists per contest while putting up 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocked shots.
• Brandon Williams gets the Mavericks 10.5 points, 2.5 rebounds and 4 assists per game while putting up 1.3 steals and 0.3 blocked shots.

Mavericks Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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